6
takeaways on Hollande’s speech
The
French President’s strategy is risky, for him and for his allies
and rivals.
By PIERRE BRIANÇON
AND NICHOLAS VINOCUR 11/16/15, 9:59 PM CET
To wage his “war”
against ISIL, François Hollande wants to seduce his allies abroad
and reduce his opposition at home.
In a widely
anticipated speech Monday in front of a rare joint session of
parliament, the French president tried to position France as the
West’s leader in the fight against Islamic State, and force the
Conservative opposition into supporting him — by proposing a
constitutional change that they would only oppose at their political
peril.
Hollande took two
risks. The first is that the priority he puts on “destroying”
ISIL in Syria would bring Russia and its president Vladimir Putin
back into the diplomatic fold — which may prove divisive among
Western allies. The second is that, if the opposition rejects his
constitutional proposals, Hollande could pay a political price ahead
of the French elections for looking weak by failing to build a
consensus.
Here are six
takeaways from his speech:
1. France needs
friends
Hollande laid the
groundwork for the creation of a wider, global coalition to fight
ISIL in Syria. Criticizing what he called a “divided and
incoherent” international response to the security crisis in Syria,
Hollande said he would call a meeting of the U.N. Security Council to
discuss a resolution, without specifying its aim.
“We need a
cohesive approach,” he said. His objective is likely to draw
reticent powers into the fight against ISIL, as he flagged an
upcoming meeting with Putin, whose air campaign in Syria so far has
not been focused on ISIL.
He also pressed for
more military aid from France’s European partners, none of which
are so far engaged in Syria. “I asked the minister of defense to
reach out to his European counterparts,” he said. “When a
European country is attacked, other European Union countries must
come to their aid,” he added, referring to a ‘Mutual Defense and
Solidarity Clause’ in the Treaty of the European Union.
2. All enemies
aren’t created equal
Analysts were
waiting to see whether Hollande, who had been the most outspoken
Western leader in demanding the removal of Syrian president Bashar
al-Assad before any political settlement could be reached in the
country, would refocus France’s Middle East policy on the fight
against ISIL.
France is still
seeking a solution that wouldn’t involve Assad, he said. “But,”
he immediately added, “our enemy in Syria is Daesh,” referring to
ISIL.
Without saying it in
so many words, Hollande might be ready to tone down the anti-Assad
rhetoric if Putin gave some signs that he’s ready to step up
Russia’s so-far weak war effort against ISIL.
3. He needs a bigger
stick
Over the past few
days, the French airstrikes in Syria have been more intensive than
they had been since the announcement of an air campaign in September.
Hollande said many more would be forthcoming as Paris sought to
“destroy,” rather than contain, ISIL, in addition to providing
increased support for rebel groups. France would also dispatch to the
eastern Mediterranean its only aircraft-carrier, the nuclear-powered
Charles de Gaulle, which has a capacity to launch 36 aircraft.
Hollande said that would “triple” France’s firepower in the
region.
However, Hollande
stopped short of pledging further funding for the military, with an
increase of €1.9 billion already planned for 2015-2016.
Polls show that a
majority of French people favor a boots-on-the-ground strategy in
Syria. But Paris is unlikely to launch such an operation
unilaterally, and its troops are already stretched across the globe,
including in an ongoing anti-terrorism operation in Mali and a
peacekeeping mission in Central African Republic.
4. The constitution
as political trap
The sweeping
constitutional changes that Hollande is asking parliament to adopt
will be a political trap for his conservative opposition and notably
for Hollande’s past and future rival, Nicolas Sarkozy, now the
leader of the Les Républicains party.
There’s little
that conservative leaders could in principle oppose in reforms geared
toward harmonizing the legal possibilities to deal with exceptional
circumstances — such as war, armed uprisings or coup attempts. That
is especially the case since the constitutional clean-up had been
suggested a few years ago in a report by former prime minister
Edouard Balladur, who is Sarkozy’s political mentor.
So the opposition is
caught between supporting Hollande’s policies or appearing to deny
the country’s “chief of the armed forces” — his
constitutional responsibility — the powers he needs to lead the
“war” on ISIL. Hollande needs a three-fifths majority from the
joint parliament to pass the reform.
If he can’t get
it, the blame will fall squarely on his opponents.
5. A little less
liberté
With officials
warning about a risk of further terrorist attacks, Hollande said he
would seek parliamentary approval to extend the current 12-day state
of emergency to three months.
Under a state of
emergency, courts and police have broader powers to launch raids on
homes, search cars and interrogate suspects. But Hollande said that
he wanted to “substantially” increase the powers of police and
justice to go after terrorists and stop weapons-trafficking, without
detailing specific measures. Parliament already voted on a law to
increase the state’s digital surveillance powers.
Finally, Hollande’s
proposed changes to the constitution, which he wants to see better
adapted to what he calls “the terrorism of war,” would give the
government more power to restrict liberties, without having to resort
to the so-called “state of siege” under which the judiciary and
legislative branches are suspended.
6. ‘The security
pact trumps the stability pact’
While asking the
whole of Europe to feel as attacked by ISIL as France was on Friday,
Hollande is also thumbing his nose at the EU’s fiscal discipline.
With that sentence
he warned clearly that he would not feel constrained by the bloc’s
budget deficit limits, and that the extra spending he demands for
security and intelligence forces would be treated differently from
day-to-day government spending.
That may create some
tensions with the EU commissioners in charge of enforcing fiscal
discipline — including, ironically, Hollande’s former finance
minister Pierre Moscovici — but politically there’s no doubt that
the French president is on safe ground: Who will argue with him on
this topic?
Authors:
Pierre Briançon
and Nicholas Vinocur
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