 |
| If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes he can bully European leaders by provoking a fresh migrant crisis in southern Europe, then he would be well-advised to think again. |
Erdogan's
Attempts To Blackmail Europe Are Doomed To Fail
by Tyler
Durden
Fri,
03/06/2020 - 02:00
If Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes he can bully European leaders by
provoking a fresh migrant crisis in southern Europe, then he would be
well-advised to think again.
Ankara's
announcement that it is once again opening the floodgates to allow millions of
refugees from Syria's brutal civil war to travel to south-eastern Europe in
search of refuge has been taken to persuade European leaders to back Turkey's
increasingly desperate situation in Syria.
Having
launched an ill-considered military offensive against the Assad regime in
northern Syria, Mr Erdogan now finds himself facing the consequences of his
action, with regime forces, backed by Russia and Iran, waging a highly
effective campaign against the Turks, which has so far resulted in the deaths
of scores of Turkish troops.
In
addition, Turkey's decision to deploy thousands of troops to Idlib province in
northern Syria has resulted in a fresh wave of refugees fleeing across the border
into southern Turkey, where Turkish officials are already struggling to cope
with the estimated four million Syrian refugees that have already sought
sanctuary in the sprawling refugee camps.
One of the
main reasons that Mr Erdogan now finds himself facing this difficult
predicament is that he has badly underestimated the nature of his relationship
with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
When Turkey
took the controversial decision last year to purchase Russia's state-of-the-art
S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, Mr Erdogan calculated that it would herald
new era of friendly cooperation with Ankara's long-standing rival in Moscow
even if, by pressing ahead with the deal, the Turks risked jeopardising their
relationship with NATO, which bitterly opposed the deal.
There was
certainly an expectation in Ankara that improved relations with Moscow would
result in better cooperation between the two countries on the post-conflict
settlement in Syria, especially regarding Turkey's desire to establish a safe
zone in northern Syria.
Yet, as the
recent escalation in fighting has demonstrated, the Russians' main priority is
to support the Assad regime in its attempts to regain control of the last
remaining rebel stronghold in northern Syria. Thus the Russians now find
themselves in a direct confrontation with Turkish forces in Idlib province,
where the Turks are trying to protect a number of Islamist militias committed
to overthrowing the Assad regime.
If the
current crisis facing Turkey is entirely of Mr Erdogan's own making, that has
not prevented the Turkish president from trying to deflect attention away from
his own mishandling of the conflict by seeking to provoke a new migrant crisis
in Europe.
Mr Erdogan
used this tactic to great effect five years ago when, in response to Turkey's
decision to allow more than a million Syrian refugees to travel to Europe, he
succeeded in persuading the European Union to pledge six billion euros to
Ankara in return for allowing the refugees to remain on Syrian soil.
Yet, to judge
by the initial response from European leaders to Mr Erdogan's latest attempt to
blackmail them, it seems that, this time around, the Turkish leader's ploy is
unlikely to deliver the desired result.
For a
start, a meeting of NATO ambassadors called last week to discuss the
increasingly vulnerable position of Turkish forces in Syria ended with
expressions of sympathy for the Turks, but little else. Other NATO member
states are simply not interested in getting involved in a conflict that might
result in them being involved in a direct military confrontation with Moscow.
Mr Erdogan
is also about to discover that there has been a hardening of attitudes among
European leaders about dealing with unwanted migrants since the Turkish leader
last used his blackmail tactics five years ago.
At a
meeting of EU ambassadors this week to discuss the migrant crisis, officials
expressed their outrage at Ankara's behaviour.
Nor can Mr
Erdogan expect any support from Germany, where German Chancellor Angela Merkel
responded to the last migrant crisis by opening Germany's doors to an estimated
one million refugees, a decision that seriously undermined her political
popularity.
These days,
senior politicians in Mrs Merkel's centre-right Christian Democrats take a more
hard-nosed approach to the migrant issue, with one senior party member warning
the migrants this week, "There is no point coming to Germany. We cannot
take you in."
Europe
might have fallen for Mr Erdogan's bully-boy tactics in the past. But all the
evidence from the latest migrant crisis suggests they are not about to do so
again
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário