CSU’s Seehofer takes Germany to the brink
Interior minister will meet Angela Merkel for one last shot
at a compromise Monday.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 7/2/18, 7:33 AM CET
Updated 7/2/18, 7:42 AM CET
Horst Seehofer's resignation offer followed a topsy-turvy
24-hours of crisis talks aimed at preserving the German coalition | Christof
Stache/AFP via Getty Images
BERLIN — Germany’s politics were thrust into deep disarray
late Sunday as Interior Minister Horst Seehofer made a shock announcement he
would resign over his clash with Angela Merkel, only to reverse course and say
he would make a final attempt to forge a compromise with the chancellor at a
meeting on Monday.
A day many hoped would bring a solution to a dispute over
refugee policy that has threatened to bring down the government ended instead
with the German coalition inching even closer to the edge. The future of the
70-year-old conservative alliance between Seehofer’s Christian Social Union and
the Christian Democrats, the bulwark of Germany’s political establishment, hung
in the balance.
“We’re going to try again to have a discussion in Berlin
with the CDU in the hope that we can come to an understanding,” Seehofer said
upon leaving party headquarters at around 2 a.m. “I hope we succeed.”
Throughout the weeks of crisis between the CDU and CSU, a
compromise between the two parties had seemed to be the only logical outcome.
But the tumultuous meeting of the CSU’s senior ranks on Sunday made it clear
the dispute is as much about raw emotion as it is about political calculus.
Despite Sunday’s back-and-forth over Seehofer’s resignation,
few doubt the sincerity of the threat. Earlier this year, Seehofer was forced
to give up his powerful post as Bavarian premier to his youthful rival, Markus
Söder. And although he retains his position as CSU leader, Seehofer, 69, was
never expected to stay in the post for long.
Put simply, even with Seehofer gone, the viability of
Merkel’s coalition, which also includes the Social Democrats, would remain in
doubt.
While Seehofer suggested to party colleagues that his offer
to step down was a way to defuse the crisis and keep the two parties,
collectively known as the Union, from divorcing, the fallout from a resignation
is difficult to predict.
Far from calming the waters, it could well fuel resentment
of Merkel within the CSU and even within her own party, where many disagree with
her course. Like Seehofer, a number of the CSU’s other leaders have shown no
intention of backing away from his pledge to turn back refugees, suggesting the
issue would persist and further destabilize the government.
Put simply, even with Seehofer gone, the viability of
Merkel’s coalition, which also includes the Social Democrats, would remain in
doubt.
Seehofer’s resignation offer followed a topsy-turvy 24-hours
of crisis talks aimed at preserving the coalition.
He and Merkel met late Saturday in Berlin, where they were
seen sipping wine on the balcony of Merkel’s chancellery. The bonhomie ended
there, however, as the two failed to bridge their policy differences during the
two-hour meeting.
Upon his arrival at a meeting of CSU leaders in Munich on
Sunday, Seehofer characterized his session with Merkel as “pointless,”
according to German media reports.
After weeks of heated debate over whether Germany should
implement Seehofer’s controversial plan to turn away refugees registered in
other EU countries, the scope for a compromise remains murky at best.
Merkel has made it clear she wouldn’t support such a step
over concerns that it would trigger the collapse of Europe’s system of open
borders and further undermine the solidarity of an already-fractious EU.
Last month, Seehofer agreed to give Merkel until last week’s
EU summit to come up with an alternative solution, setting the stage for the
weekend showdown.
Merkel returned from the summit with a host of commitments
on refugee policy from both the EU and individual countries.
In fact, Merkel made more progress on the refugee front than
most thought possible.
One factor for Seehofer’s refusal to stand down could be his
strained personal relationship with Merkel.
Still, it wasn’t enough to satisfy Seehofer, who told party
associates on Sunday that the EU plans would make little difference on the
German border. Seehofer has argued that turning refugees away would help
dissuade migrants from trying to come to Germany in the first place, a notion
organizations that work closely with those fleeing dispute.
Most political observers in Germany view Seehofer’s hard
line simply as electioneering before Bavarian state elections in October. The
CSU faces a serious challenge from the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany
party and is likely to lose its absolute majority. The CSU, which doesn’t
operate outside Bavaria, has dominated the wealthy southern state’s politics
since the war and is fighting tooth and nail to defend its position there.
Whether the dissolution of its alliance with the larger CDU
is a price the CSU is willing to pay is unclear. Seehofer and other leading
party officials insist a separation is the last thing they want. A divorce
would rob the CSU of much of its influence in Berlin and would mean the party
has to contend with the CDU as a competitor in Bavaria for the first time.
That’s what worries the CSU’s more liberal members, a group
that includes Manfred Weber, leader of the European People’s Party group in the
European Parliament. At Sunday’s CSU meeting, they pushed for a compromise with
Merkel, arguing that the progress she had made on the European front was
substantial enough to justify a compromise.
Many in Berlin were surprised the CSU didn’t seize the
moment by taking credit for advancing the refugee question on the European
agenda by pressuring Merkel. After the summit a string of CSU officials praised
the results as a step in the right direction.
One factor for Seehofer’s refusal to stand down could be his
strained personal relationship with Merkel. Though the two have been working
with one another for 30 years, they’ve never gotten along.
If his resignation ended up forcing Merkel’s own departure,
Seehofer would have the last laugh.
For the CSU, however, the score settling would carry a heavy
price.
A string of recent polls suggests most voters blame the CSU
for the dispute with the CDU, a factor that could harm the party’s prospects in
the October election.
That CSU officials convinced Seehofer to delay a final
decision until after seeing Merkel one more time suggests the party is well
aware of the risks.
Whether Seehofer will agree to compromise Monday after weeks
of stubborn refusal is another question.
Ministro do Interior apresenta
demissão em conflito com Merkel
Em causa está o
diferendo entre Horst Seehofer e a chanceler alemã em torno da política
germânica de imigração e de acolhimento de refugiados.
Maria João Guimarães
MARIA JOÃO GUIMARÃES 1 de Julho de 2018, 22:09
O ministro alemão do Interior, Horst Seehofer, anunciou este
domingo que irá abandonar o Governo e a liderança da União Social Cristã (CSU),
o partido bávaro aliado da CDU de Angela Merkel.
Se o fizer, este pode ser o modo de pôr uma pedra sobre a discussão
interna sobre imigração e asilo que tem dominado as últimas semanas.
O jornal Die Zeit sublinhava que não era clara a resposta da
liderança da CSU ao pedido de demissão.
Os responsáveis do partido conservador, que só existe na
Baviera, reuniram-se durante sete horas para discutir os resultados da cimeira
europeia de quinta e sexta-feira, em que foram discutidas políticas de asilo e
imigração.
A questão era se os resultados da cimeira, com várias
medidas para evitar um aumento do número de chegadas irregulares à Europa,
seriam suficientes do ponto de vista do partido.
Merkel conseguiu uma série de acordos bilaterais, com 16
países (incluindo Portugal), em que estes se comprometem a receber os
refugiados que lá pediram asilo, mas que entretanto seguiram para a Alemanha.
Seehofer queria decidir que as forças de segurança alemã
pudessem impedir a entrada ou expulsar imediatamente requerentes de asilo que
se tivessem registado primeiro noutros países europeus (o país de registo
deverá ser, segundo o regulamento de Dublin, o de acolhimento).
Seehofer é ministro há pouco mais de 100 dias e ocupa a
liderança da CSU desde 2008, tendo perdido no final do ano passado para o seu
rival Markus Söder o cargo de governador da Baviera.
O estado federado terá eleições em Outubro, e muitos viram o
endurecimento da posição em relação à imigração e asilo de Seehofer como uma
tentativa de ficar em melhor posição, mas segundo as sondagens, isso não parece
estar a acontecer e a CSU desceu nas últimas sondagens.
Ao ameaçar implementar a medida sozinho contra a opinião da
chanceler, Seehofer pôs-se numa posição em que só tinha três possibilidades:
voltar atrás e declarar suficientes os compromissos que Merkel obteve na
cimeira, demitir-se e evitar uma crise no Governo, ou levar as medidas avante e
ser demitido por Merkel.
Tudo dependeria também do apoio dentro do seu partido - uma
saída do partido da coligação no governo e um rompimento com a CDU teriam consequências
imprevisíveis -, e relatos da interminável reunião davam conta de muitas
discordâncias, a última das quais seria em relação a aceitar o seu pedido de
demissão, ameaçando arrastar a instabilidade.
Esta não é a primeira vez que Seehofer tem um forte
desentendimento com Merkel. Em 2004, demitiu-se de vice-presidente do grupo
parlamentar da CDU/CSU depois de Merkel, então chefe do partido e da oposição
ao Governo de Gerhard Schröder, ter aceitado um compromisso de política de
saúde a que o bávaro se opunha. Um ano depois, Merkel ganhava as eleições.
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