5 reasons
Boris Johnson’s victory could break the Union
Northern
Ireland has elected more Irish-identifying nationalists than pro-British
unionists, while Scotland seems to want a new referendum on independence.
By NAOMI
O'LEARY 12/13/19, 7:23 PM CET Updated 12/15/19, 1:02 AM CET
Prime
Minister Boris Johnson makes a statement in Downing Street after receiving
permission to form the next government during an audience with Queen Elizabeth
II | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
The result
of the British general election may be the gravest for the future of the Union
since the nationalist landslide that led to Ireland's secession in 1918.
For the
first time in its history, Northern Ireland has elected more Irish-identifying
nationalists than pro-British unionists. Across the water, Scottish First
Minister Nicola Sturgeon has demanded an independence referendum after winning
a nationalist landslide.
"Brexit
is unionism's biggest-ever own goal, and the outcome may be the end of the
United Kingdom," former Ulster Unionist leader Mike Nesbitt said as he
digested the results.
In a repeat
of the Brexit referendum, the results in England and Wales diverge strongly
from Remain-voting Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Brexit heartlands have
delivered the biggest mandate in a generation to a Conservative leader who
looks close to a caricature of an
English Tory toff, and whose appeal does not carry far north of Hadrian's Wall.
Here are
the key takeaways of an election that reveals a disunited kingdom:
1.
'Demography was against us'
For the
first time in history, unionists do not hold a majority of Northern Ireland's
18 Westminster seats: The Democratic Unionist Party won eight, down from 10;
Nationalist parties — Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party —
won nine between them; The cross-community Alliance Party took one.
"The demography just wasn't there. We worked
very very hard to get the vote out ... but the demography was against us" — Arlene Foster, DUP leader
It's a
deeply symbolic result for a jurisdiction that relies on a unionist majority
for its existence.
Northern
Ireland was carved out of the old Irish province of Ulster a century ago as a
home for the two-thirds majority within it who still supported a union with
Britain. But over the decades, Catholics — who skew Irish-identifying and
nationalist — have steadily increased in number while unionist-leaning
Protestants have dwindled. Now, while a firm majority of pensioners are
Protestant, a majority of school children are Catholic. The balance is forecast
to tip as soon as 2021. The Good Friday peace deal provides for unification
with the republic to the south into a united Ireland if a majority is in favor
of it.
The crude
headcounts of demographic change are usually only referred to euphemistically
in Northern Irish politics. But unusually, DUP leader Arlene Foster explicitly
blamed demographic change as she conceded defeat for the party in North
Belfast.
"The
demography just wasn't there. We worked very very hard to get the vote out ...
but the demography was against us," Foster told the BBC.
2. Defeat
for the DUP
The DUP's
loss of North Belfast could hardly be more symbolic. The seat had always been
unionist, and was once held by Lord Edward Carson, akin to a unionist Founding
Father.
Until this
election it was held by Nigel Dodds. Socially conservative, against same-sex
marriage and abortion, the DUP's deputy leader and leader in Westminster was
deeply suspicious of the potential for Boris Johnson's Brexit Deal to
economically differentiate Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom.
His
challenger was Sinn Féin's John Finucane, a 39-year-old lawyer and Lord Mayor
of Belfast. It was a battle heavy with history: Finucane is the son of a
solicitor who was murdered at the family dinner table by loyalist
paramilitaries working in collusion with British state forces, in one of the
most notorious murders of the conflict.
"I
can't help but think of my father and where we have come from, not just as a
family but as a society as well," Finucane said after his victory became
clear.
West
Belfast is a Sinn Féin stronghold, and losing South Belfast and North Belfast
leaves unionists just one MP in the city: Gavin Robinson of East Belfast, who
was re-elected with the cross-community Alliance Party not far behind him.
3. Rise of
the middle ground
While the
DUP suffered most, arch rivals Sinn Féin did not have a stellar election
either, with a decreased vote in many constituencies. Rather, it was the middle
ground parties who had the best day.
The
cross-community and anti-Brexit Alliance Party won its first seat ever outside
of Belfast, unexpectedly taking the traditionally unionist seat of North Down
from retiring incumbent, the pro-Remain independent unionist Sylvia Hermon.
"There was a Brexit effect. The most
pro-Remain parties made the biggest gains" — Matthew O'Toole, former spokesman in Downing
Street
Fellow
Remainers, the moderate nationalist SDLP, took a seat from Sinn Féin in a
record-breaking landslide in the nationalist Foyle constituency, raking in
almost three times the Sinn Féin vote. The SDLP also snatched a seat in South
Belfast from the DUP. Unlike the abstentionist Sinn Féin, the SDLP do take up
their seats in Westminster, so Irish nationalists will now have MPs in
Westminster once again after having none since 2017.
"There
was a Brexit effect. The most pro-Remain parties made the biggest gains,"
said Matthew O'Toole, who was a spokesman in Downing Street during the Brexit
referendum and now writes and commentates on Brexit and current affairs.
"It signals how Northern Ireland is changing ... nationalists and
unionists are going to have to persuade this middle ground who are less
interested in identity."
4. As goes
Scotland...
The sight
of triumphant SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon shaking her fists in victory will
rattle unionists from Bangor to Belleek.
Northern
Ireland's cultural ties are in many ways stronger to Scotland than to England.
The Scottish National Party's landslide — 48 of 59 Scottish seats and 45
percent of the Scottish vote — and renewed mandate for a second independence
referendum will rattle unionists across the Irish Sea.
The sight
of triumphant SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon shaking her fists in victory will
rattle unionists | Andy Buchanan/AFP via Getty Images
"Unionists will be looking across the water
and thinking if Scotland is going to go, then the Union is going to go,"
said Sarah Creighton, a unionist commentator. "That vote coming through in
Scotland is going to make a lot of people nervous."
5. Desire
for change
Johnson's
decisive majority enables his party to return to its default position toward
Northern Ireland's unionists: ignoring them.
Within the
space of a year, the DUP has gone from having the power to disrupt
international negotiations by threatening a veto, to waiting in line to ask the
prime minister nicely and hoping he grants them the favor.
The Brexit
deal is widely expected to pass its first vote by Christmas and to be ratified
on time for the U.K. to leave the European Union on January 31, 2020. In its
current form, the Brexit deal entails checks on goods between Britain and
Northern Ireland if Britain chooses to diverge from EU standards. In order to
prevent a border with the republic, Northern Ireland is to remain EU-aligned.
"I think this is about Brexit, but I also
think Northern Ireland's voters are frustrated with the status quo" — Sarah Creighton, unionist
commentator
Hardcore
pro-British loyalists have dubbed this deal "the Betrayal Act" and
threatened civil disorder if it passes. But any international clout they had
has evaporated along with that of the DUP.
With such a
reduced stature on the London stage, the DUP may be inclined to turn their
attentions back to Stormont, Northern Ireland's governing Assembly which has
been collapsed since 2017. They may find Sinn Féin more amenable to joining
them there: If the Brexit border conundrum is indeed solved, Sinn Féin will
also have far fewer international invitations at which to speak. Some read in
the sapped results for both Sinn Féin and the DUP a desire for change.
"The
two main parties that have been in power here for 10 years have really not had
a good night," Creighton said. "I think this is about Brexit, but I
also think Northern Ireland's voters are frustrated with the status quo.
Northern Ireland's health service is in a state of collapse, and voters have
shown their frustration at the ballot box."
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