terça-feira, 27 de novembro de 2018

Trump says UK ‘may not be able to trade with US’ under May’s Brexit deal




May's Brexit deal sounds like a 'great deal for the EU', says Donald Trump

US president’s intervention is likely to weaken May’s hand when she is seeking to get deal approved by parliament

Julian Borger in Washington, Daniel Boffey in Brussels and Dan Sabbagh
Tue 27 Nov 2018 07.29 GMT First published on Mon 26 Nov 2018 21.32 GMT

Donald Trump has delivered a weighty blow to Theresa May’s hopes of steering her Brexit deal through parliament, saying it sounded like a “great deal for the EU” that would stop the UK trading with the US.

Trump was speaking to reporters outside the White House when he was asked about the deal May struck with the EU’s other 27 heads of state and government on Sunday.

“Sounds like a great deal for the EU,” the president said. “I think we have to take a look at, seriously, whether or not the UK is allowed to trade. Because, you know, right now, if you look at the deal, they may not be able to trade with us … I don’t think that the prime minister meant that. And, hopefully, she’ll be able to do something about that.”

Trump’s intervention caught Downing Street off-guard and is likely to weaken May’s hand at a time when she is seeking to get the deal approved by parliament, where she faces determined resistance from 89 Tory backbenchers who argue the deal does not secure sufficient freedom of action for the UK. A vote is due on 11 December after a five-day debate.

A No 10 spokesman argued that Trump’s take on Brexit was wrong: “The political declaration we have agreed with the EU is very clear we will have an independent trade policy so that the UK can sign trade deals with countries around the world – including with the US.”

The spokesman pointed out that the US trade representative had already begun a consultation on a future trade deal with the UK, again suggesting Trump’s analysis was incorrect. “We have already been laying the groundwork for an ambitious agreement with the US through our joint working groups, which have met five times so far,” he said.

It was unclear what Trump meant by the UK being unable to trade with the US, although some suggested he was referring to the fact that the UK would not be able to strike trade deals with the US after the Brexit deal is concluded because of its terms.

Under the deal the UK will not be able to pursue an independent trade policy during the 21-month transition period after Brexit, during which it will be in effect an EU member state without any representation in the bloc’s decision-making institutions.

In the highly likely scenario that a EU-UK trade deal is not close to ratification by July 2020, the EU and UK will jointly decide at this so-called “rendezvous” point, whether to extend the transition period for up to two years, again precluding such a deal with Washington.

Brussels and Downing Street could alternatively allow the “backstop” solution for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland to come into force in January 2021.

Such a scenario would see the whole of the UK staying in a customs union with Brussels under which it would not be able to pursue any trade deal covering goods – although the UK would be free to seek agreements in the services sector.

Last year, the US was the second largest market for EU exports of goods after China while British exports are worth around £100bn a year, more than twice as much as to any other country.

May has repeatedly insisted that the UK would be able to negotiate and conclude trade deals with countries around the world after Brexit, and she and other ministers had made no secret of the fact they hoped in particular to reach an agreement with the US – the world’s largest economy.

Trump has, however, been seeking a trade deal with the EU, and has been threatening tariffs on the European car industry in order to attain such a prize. The UK would likely be covered by such an EU-US deal. Brussels has a policy of pushing its new trade deal partners to allow countries such as Turkey, with whom the bloc is in a customs union, to enjoy similar beneficial terms to its member states.

Trump has had an uneasy relationship with May, and made no secret of his support for Nigel Farage and the British hard right. He feted Farage on the campaign trail and cast himself in the same radical outsider role, tweeting in August 2016: “They will soon be calling me MR BREXIT!”

After Downing Street criticised the president for retweeting three videos posted by a UK far-right group in November 2017, Trump retorted: “@Theresa_May, don’t focus on me, focus on the destructive Radical Islamic Terrorism that is taking place within the United Kingdom. We are doing just fine!”




Special relationship? Theresa May discovers she has no friend in Donald Trump
Julian Borger

The US president’s Twitter attack on Britain’s prime minister leaves her with a toxic diplomatic dilemma – how to respond to a contemptuous US president

Thu 30 Nov 2017 12.04 GMT First published on Thu 30 Nov 2017 05.16 GMT

Donald Trump and Theresa May at the G20 meeting in Hamburg, Germany, in July. Their relationship as taken a blow with the president’s tweeting habits. Photograph: Reuters
It was some poor official’s job this morning to tell Theresa May that while she slept, the relationship with the US became special for all the wrong reasons.

It is at least historic. No US president in modern times has addressed a UK prime minister with the open peevishness and contempt of Donald Trump’s tweet telling May to mind her own business.

George W Bush’s offhand “Yo Blair”, caught on an open mic in 2006, did not show much respect either, but at least it was meant to be friendly. We are a very long way away from such halcyon partnerships as Churchill-Roosevelt and Reagan-Thatcher.

Trump could not even be bothered to get May’s Twitter handle right. The diss had to be corrected.

There are many layers of humiliation here for May to get her head around over breakfast. Not only is it personally demeaning, it is also politically toxic.

The prospect of a successful or at least survivable Brexit is posited on a strong relationship with Washington. In that regard, May’s successful rush to Washington in January to become the first foreign leader received at the Trump White House was presented as a coup.

Under EU rules, the two countries are not allowed even to start negotiating a trade deal until the UK is truly out of Europe, but the warm words and the pictures of the Trump and May holding hands at least struck an encouraging tone. The prime minister got to Washington in time to help the state department and Congress stop the president lifting sanctions on Russia, and squeezed out of him his first grudging words of support for Nato.

It has been downhill since then.

May had to tell the president off in September for speculating about a terrorist attack in London. On Wednesday she had little choice but to rebuke him for retweeting Islamophobic videos put out by the UK far right, and that earned her the acid riposte from the thin-skinned president on Wednesday night.

So what can May do to limit the damage? She can be stern or she can try to laugh it off. But whichever mode she adopts, she will have to distance herself from Trump in the short term while sending reassuring noises that all will be fine in the long term.

All the signs suggest however, that it will not be fine.

May is in open disagreement with Trump over a major foreign policy issue, the nuclear deal with Iran, which the president would like to destroy and which the UK is anxious to salvage. To that end, May’s strongest card is European solidarity. Top diplomats from the UK, Germany and France are in Washington this week to do a triple act in defence of the agreement.

The Europeans are also desperate to steer the Trump administration from the path to war with North Korea, that is being paved with the help of Trump’s sound-bite bellicosity.

The irony is that it is just such European unity of purpose that May is committed to undermine. Having a US president who is so erratic and extreme that he makes disagreements with EU seem petty by comparison is a bad look for a prime minister championing Brexit.

As for Trump, there is no convincing evidence he cares much about the UK relationship anyway. He is more drawn to autocracies such as Saudi Arabia and China. Having a Scottish-born mother has not made him sufficiently sentimental that he would grant the UK a speedy and favourable trade deal after Brexit. He has built his whole political persona on being unyielding in such negotiations.

As the special counsel investigation into collusion with Moscow advances into the White House, and as one after another of the administration’s legislative initiatives fall flat, Trump is withdrawing further and further into his base, which is resentful of the liberal world order and indifferent to old European ties.

If it were not already clear, the latest presidential tweet leaves little doubt. Theresa May does not a have partner, or even a friend, in the White House

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