Climate change 'will inflict substantial damages on US
lives'
US National Climate Assessment details climate change impact
Current response to crisis is insufficient, authors say
Oliver Milman in New York
@olliemilman
Fri 23 Nov 2018 21.48 GMT First published on Fri 23 Nov 2018
18.30 GMT
A home is overshadowed by towering smoke plumes in Paradise,
California . Climate change-related risks will continue to grow without
additional action’, the report is set to warn. Photograph: Josh
Edelson/AFP/Getty Images
Climate change is already harming Americans’ lives with
“substantial damages” set to occur as global temperatures threaten to surge
beyond internationally agreed limits, a major US government report has warned.
The influence of climate change is being felt across the US
with increases in disastrous wildfires in the west, flooding on the east coast,
soil loss in the midwest and coastal erosion in Alaska, according to the US
National Climate Assessment. The Guardian saw a draft of the report before
publication on Friday.
The draft outlined that “impacts of climate change are
intensifying across the country, and that climate-related threats to Americans’
physical, social, and economic wellbeing are rising”. Climate change-related
risks “will continue to grow without additional action”, it added.
The quadrennial report, the combined work of 13 federal
agencies, was released by the Trump administration on the day after
Thanksgiving. Scientists who worked on the report said their research was not
watered down but claimed the release was timed to bury the findings during the
holiday season.
Global temperatures could be limited to 2C above
pre-industrial era if greenhouse gas emissions are slashed but “without
significant reductions, annual average global temperatures could increase by 9F
(5C) or more by the end of this century”, a previously released chapter states.
Even 2C warming is likely to have major ramifications for
societies, as the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
report spelled out. Heating the planet well beyond this would create a “totally
different world”, said Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist at Princeton
University.
“It would be indescribable, it would turn the world upside
down in terms of its climate. There would be nothing like it in the history of
civilization.”
Oppenheimer, with many other scientists, has said warming of
around 3C is more likely given the advance of renewable energy and expected
emissions reductions in the future.
“That is more of an economic, political and technology
question,” a report author who wished to remain unnamed told the Guardian.
“It’s hard to say what we are on track for right now.”
Climate-related
threats to Americans’ physical, social, and economic wellbeing are rising
The draft report warned that the current response was
insufficient to stave off the worst impacts, stating that “neither global
efforts to mitigate the causes of climate change nor regional efforts to adapt
to the impacts currently approach the scales needed to avoid substantial
damages to the US economy, environment, and human health and well-being over
the coming decades”.
Another report author said: “Climate change is loading the
dice against us, it’s going to affect our water, food and ecosystems. This
report is important because it shows it’s already happening where we live, not
on far off islands or at the poles.”
Included in the dozens of draft report chapters:
The summary states the “earth’s climate is now changing
faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a
result of human activities. The impacts of global climate change are already
being felt in the United States and are projected to intensify in the future.”
Average sea levels along the US coast have increased by
around 9in since the early 20th century as the oceans have warmed and land ice
has melted. If emissions are not constrained, “many coastal communities will be
transformed by the latter part of this century”.
Fisheries, tourism, human health and public safety are being
“transformed, degraded or lost due in part to climate change impacts,
particularly sea level rise and higher numbers of extreme weather events”.
Wildfires have burned at least 3.7m acres in the US in all
but three years from 2000 to 2016. “More frequent and larger wildfires,
combined with increasing development at the wildland-urban interface portend
increasing risks to property and human life,” the report states.
More than 100m people in the US live in places with poor air
quality and climate change will “worsen existing air pollution levels”. Increased
wildfire smoke risks heightening respiratory and cardiovascular problems, while
the prevalence of asthma and hay fever is also likely to rise.
Major groundwater supplies have declined over the last
century, with this decrease accelerating since 2001. “Significant changes in
water quantity and quality are evident across the country,” the report finds.
Climate change will “disrupt many areas of life” by hurting
the US economy, affecting trade and exacerbating overseas conflicts. Low-income
and marginalized communities will be worst hit.
The national climate assessment is mandated by Congress to
compile the latest research on climate change. The last report came out in
2014. Donald Trump has since announced the US will withdraw from the Paris
climate deal, with his administration working to dismantle every major policy
designed at lowering emissions.
The release of the report comes as California is racked by
its most deadly wildfire on record, the so-called Camp fire, which razed the
town of Paradise. At least 84 people have died and tens of thousands of people
have had to flee the fire, which has occurred at the same time as a smaller
blaze further south, near Los Angeles.
Trump has downplayed assertions by scientists and
firefighters that climate change is making California more wildfire-prone,
instead pointing to “gross mismanagement” of forest areas. Ryan Zinke, the
interior secretary, has said conservationist lawsuits by “radical environmental
groups” were to blame.
While visiting devastated parts of California last weekend
Trump was asked if what he had seen and heard had changed his mind about
climate change, which he has previously called a “hoax”. Trump responded to the
question with a firm: “No.”
“When there are daily images of California burning up it’s
hard for the administration to argue climate change isn’t happening,” said
Oppenheimer. “The strategy seems to be let sleeping dogs lie and hope the
public doesn’t pay much attention to it.”
24/11/2018, 0:05
Quando os catastróficos incêndios na Califórnia recuam e as
pessoas recuperam depois de dois furacões, um relatório indica que os eventos
meteorológicos extremos estão a agravar-se nos EUA.
O documento "National Climate Assessment"
contradiz declarações do Presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, sobre as alterações
climáticas
Autor
Agência Lusa
Um relatório federal norte-americano, esta sexta-feira
divulgado, quando os catastróficos incêndios na Califórnia recuam e as pessoas
recuperam depois de dois furacões, indica que os eventos meteorológicos
extremos estão a agravar-se nos Estados Unidos da América.
O documento “National Climate Assessment” (“Avaliação
Nacional do Clima”, em português) contradiz declarações do Presidente dos EUA,
Donald Trump, sobre as alterações climáticas. Escrito antes dos atuais fogos mortais
na Califórnia e dos furacões Florence e Michael, que fustigaram a costa leste e
o Estado da Florida, o relatório adiantou que os eventos extremos influenciados
pelo aquecimento global “já se tornaram mais frequentes, intensos,
generalizados ou de longa duração”.
Em particular, destacou-se que nos últimos anos foram
quebrados os recordes norte-americanos de estragos causados pelas condições
atmosféricas, que já somam 400 mil milhões de dólares (353 mil milhões de
euros) desde 2015.
Os recentes incêndios no norte da Califórnia podem ser
atribuídos às alterações climáticas, mas esta ligação é menor para explicar os
ocorridos no sul deste Estado, afirmou um dos coautores, William Hohenstein, do
Departamento da Agricultura. “Um clima quente e seco aumentou as áreas
queimadas nos últimos 20 anos”, afirmou, durante uma conferência de imprensa,
esta sexta-feira realizada.
O relatório é de realização obrigatória e é baseado em mais
de mil estudos e investigações anteriores. Detalha como o aquecimento global,
resultante da queima de combustíveis fósseis — petróleo, gás e carvão –, está a
prejudicar toda e cada região dos EUA e como se manifesta nos diferentes
setores da economia, incluindo a energia e a agricultura.
As alterações climáticas estão a mudar onde e como vivemos e
apresentam desafios crescentes à saúde humana e à qualidade de vida, à economia
e aos sistemas naturais que nos suportam”, afirmaram os autores do documento.
Isto inclui uma poluição do ar mais acentuada, que provoca
problemas cardiovasculares e respiratórios, mais doenças causadas por insetos,
potencial para um aumento acentuado de mortes durante vagas de calor e alergias
desagradáveis.
“Estimou-se que as perdas anuais em alguns setores
económicos atinjam centenas de milhares de milhões de dólares no fim do século,
mais do que o atual produto interno bruto de muitos Estados dos EUA”,
especificou-se no documento.
O impacto económico-financeiro vai ser particularmente
elevado nas regiões costeiras, devido à subida do nível das águas e à
severidade das vagas durante as tempestades, o que vai reduzir o valor das
propriedades aí situadas. E em algumas partes dos Estados do Alasca e do Alabama
vai mesmo forçar algumas populações a saírem de onde estão.
“Estamos a ver coisas que dissemos que iam acontecer, a
acontecer agora, na vida real”, disse outra coautora, Katharine Hayhoe, da
Universidade Tecnológica do Texas. “Enquanto cientista do clima, isto é quase
surreal”, considerou. Donald Wuebbles, co-autor, da Universidade do Illinois,
afirmou: “Vamos continuar a assistir a que os eventos climatéricos extremos
fiquem mais fortes e mais intensos”.
O que torna o relatório diferente de outros é que se foca
nos EUA e depois vai ficando mais localizado e detalhado. O documento foi
elaborado por cientistas integrados em 13 agências governamentais e outros fora
do Governo e foi divulgado no quadro das festividades do Dia de Ação de Graças
(“Thanksgiving”), apesar de estar previsto para dezembro.
Divulgar o documento na “Sexta-feira Negra” é “uma tentativa
evidente de o Governo de Trump esconder este relatório e continuar a campanha
de não apenas negar, mas também suprimir o melhor da ciência do clima”, acusou
o coautor Andrew Light, do World Resources Institute.
Com base em numerosos estudos, os autores do relatório
asseguraram que 90% do atual aquecimento global é causado pelos humanos.
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