Our Greek referendum offers catastrophe or absolute catastrophe. Some choice

Our Greek referendum offers catastrophe or absolute catastrophe. Some choice

Whatever the result, the fraying of ties with our European allies will be difficult to mend

Aggeliki Spanou

Sunday 5 July 2015 00.03 BST / http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/05/greek-referendum-catastrophe-versus-absolute-catastrophe

So we get to choose today. Some choice – between a catastrophe and an absolute catastrophe. But at least now we appear to be arriving at a conclusion, of sorts, in contrast to the recent Greek story that has moved from near climax to near climax. Whatever happens, a brutal realisation of national failure is bound to emerge from the ruins, while at the same time we are unable to foretell if yet more failure lies further down the road.

For the moment, however, the most common question on the streets is: “€50 or €60, which button should I press?” heard among people waiting patiently in line at bank cash machines ever since “capital control” was implemented.

Old people suffer the most, as many do not own cash cards and do not know how to carry out electronic exchanges. These are the very same people who have often heard the prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, reassuring them that he was engaged in a battle to prevent their pensions being cut, as Greece’s creditors have demanded.

The open rally in favour of “Yes” at the Panathenaic stadium on Friday afternoon ended with people singing the Greek national anthem. In Syntagma Square, in downtown Athens, Tsipras ended his speech with the words of a famous Greek poet of the 19th century, Andreas Kalvos: “Freedom takes virtue and courage.”

Both sides agree that the moment we are living through is historic. They also agree that the cycle of the so-called metapolitefsi (the post-1974 political period) has come to an end. But nobody can yet tell if the new cycle that will begin on Monday will mark the beginning of the end of today’s bitter experience or simply the end of its beginning.

The result of the referendum and developments on the day after will determine if the fall continues (bail-in, dual currency, return to the drachma) or if it will end and a new era with the banks will start.

Momentous events have already happened: the damage to the economy will not be rectified without extreme austerity for an unspecified period of time. What’s more, restoring the healthy state of the banking system will be a lengthy process and one that will only widen social divisions. Then there are the relations with our European allies. The fraying of these ties will be hard to mend.

Government sources anticipate that an European Central Bank board of directors meeting will convene a eurogroup on Tuesday and an EU summit on Wednesday. The question remains: who will stand in for Greece. Tsipras has not revealed his intentions and does not appear willing to play ball with Greece’s creditors, renouncing a priori that the European forces want to impose a “government of the willing” in an attempt to displace him from power. But it is not certain that he will be able to hold the upper hand.

Cracks have already emerged in the coalition government as the rightwing Anel MPs have expressed different views on certain issues. Within Syriza, tensions are growing too, as some members disagree with the perceived rupture with the EU. Tempers are volatile and anguish for personal and public futures intertwine.

Many things depend on the outcome of the referendum. If the difference between “Yes” and “No” is marginal, as the polls show at the time of writing, we will be in the odd position of having a clear message of division and ambivalence.

A powerful “Yes” will force the partners to acknowledge the power of the European identity of the country and to respect the strength of the Greek people. A clear “No” will strengthen the arguments of those forces who believe that we need to break the Greek link in the eurozone chain. Either way, political developments will be rapid. The European partners tacitly, yet clearly, keep broadcasting the message that they do not trust the Syriza-Anel government anymore, and would not accept Tsipras and the finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, for further discussions with them.

This means that if the result is “Yes”, EU partners will make his life hard. The pressure to form a transitional government until general elections are held will be strong and will be enhanced by pressure from within Greece. The intensity and dynamics of this pressure will depend on the numbers.

“It’s one thing to have a 51%-49% vote and completely different to have a result with an overwhelming majority for or against,” an old-hand government official said, with his assessment being widely endorsed by the other political forces in Greece. Stavros Theodorakis, leader of the Potami party, has left open the possibility of supporting a government of national unity headed by Tsipras after a “Yes” victory regardless of the percentage of difference. However, the polarisation is becoming so great that it’s impossible to be sure that all post-referendum changes will happen in a “velvet” fashion.

The return to the public arena of former New Democracy prime minister Costas Karamanlis, in a televised message last week, supporting the “Yes” vote was taken by many to presage his forthcoming active involvement in Greece’s political affairs if necessary. Elsewhere, New Democracy-Potami and Pasok coalesced to support the “Yes” campaign, using as their central slogan the words: “We remain in Europe.” No one was selected as a main leader for a one-on-one confrontation with Tsipras who stands alone defending the “No” campaign.

Reportedly, there were frictions even regarding the role of the mayor of Athens, George Kaminis, since high-ranking ND members were annoyed by his presence, thinking that he might have to play a leading role for all three parties if they were to run jointly in the next general elections, whenever they are held.

I recognise that the intricacies of these local and national political positions might be difficult for the outsider to grasp, but such is messy democracy. However, whatever the possibilities, whoever the political players, the truth is that much will depend on the economic and social dynamics in the coming period, especially during any future campaign. A determining factor will also be developments in around Syriza – far from predictable right now.

According to official information, bank cash machines will give money until tomorrow evening. After that, nobody knows what will happen. Well, nobody except perhaps one man – the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi.

Aggeliki Spanou is editor-in-chief of the independent Greek newspaper Free Sunday