EU expecting 3 million more migrants by 2017

Quanto mais a EU “forçar”, num processo Globalizador e Federalista, a transformação da Europa das Nações numa espécie de Estados Unidos da Europa, mais assistiremos progressivamente ao crescimento da Extrema Direita e do Populismo Nacionalista.

O único equilíbrio possível é o retorno e a reafirmação do princípio da "Unidade em Diversidade" numa  Europa dos Estados Nações.

OVOODOCORVO

EU expecting 3 million more migrants by 2017

Commission predicts an economic boost from new influx.

By VINCE CHADWICK AND HANS VON DER BURCHARD 11/5/15, 1:49 PM CET Updated 11/5/15, 5:09 PM CET

http://www.politico.eu/article/migrant-crisis-eu-3-million-migrants-news-2017-finance/

The EU expects to absorb three million more migrants by the end of 2017, giving a “modest” boost to host countries’ economies.

In its autumn economic forecast released Thursday, the European Commission predicted the influx of migrants would help boost the bloc’s gross domestic product by 0.2-0.3 percent by 2020.

“We expect a positive impact” from the migrants, economy commissioner Pierre Moscovici told reporters, “but that depends on how well they are integrated.”

More than 710,000 migrants have entered the EU so far this year, according to the bloc’s border agency, Frontex. That figure is an increase from 282,000 for all of 2014.

The Commission report claims to be “a first assessment of the impact of the larger-than-expected inflows of asylum-seekers on the economies of the EU.”

The Commission arrived at the estimate, which Moscovici said was not precise, by assuming a continuation of current inflows until the end of 2016 and a “gradual normalization” in 2017.

“I think you have to say we are not quite sure about the figures,” Moscovici said. “So we can’t say the influx of the refugees is likely to have a negative impact or some kind of kicking people out of the labor market.”

He said the positive economic impact was dependent on “public policy that gives incentives and helps people and integrates them,” while the forecast also said growth depended on the skill sets of the new arrivals.

“Research indicates that non-EU migrants typically receive less in individual benefits than they contribute in taxes and social contributions,” the forecast read. “Yet, if the human potential is not used well, the inflow can also weaken fiscal sustainability.”

In his State of the Union speech in September, Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said “migration must change from a problem to be tackled to a well-managed resource,” particularly as Europe is an ageing continent.

The forecast found “while migration flows can partly offset unfavorable demographic developments, earlier studies have shown that immigration could not on its own solve the problems linked to ageing in the EU.”

The Commission expects the impact on countries will differ according to whether asylum-seekers transit or stay, and on differences in how they can access the labor market.

It predicted the effect of transit countries’ spending on rescue, registration and short-term care costs would be a maximum of 0.2 percent of GDP in 2015, “broadly stabilizing in 2016.”

The impact on destination countries is estimated at a maximum of 0.2 percent of GDP in 2015, “with a small further increase in some countries in 2016.”

Authors:

Vince Chadwick and Hans von der Burchard