February 15, 2015 2:36 pm
Wolfgang Munchau / FINANCIAL TIMES / http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/175f6634-b2d3-11e4-a058-00144feab7de.html#axzz3RzQWpBvP
One of the riskiest options would be a
formal exit from the currency union
The Greek finance minister can expect a
frosty reception on Monday where he will confront his eurozone colleagues in
another ‘high noon’ European showdown. My advice to Yanis Varoufakis would be
to ignore the exasperated looks and veiled threats and stand firm. He is a
member of the first government in the eurozone with a democratic mandate to
stand up to an utterly dysfunctional policy regime that has proved economically
illiterate and politically unsustainable. For the eurozone to survive with the
current geographic remit, this regime needs to go.
Of course, for Greece to stand up to the EU policy
elites is risky. The consequences of a failure to agree a deal have to be well
understood. Greece
might risk a financial collapse, and with it a forced exit from the eurozone.
The concrete issue under discussion is a new loan to Athens to cover its funding needs for the
next few months. The argument is not really about the money. It would only take
a couple of economists in a pub with a pencil and a few beer mats to do the
sums.
The dispute is about the packaging. The
Greeks want a simple bridging loan combined with an implicit acknowledgment
that the previous support programmes have failed. Others disagree. The Germans
support austerity on ideological grounds. The Portuguese oppose any deal for Greece as they
have taken their austerity medicine and did not stage an insurrection. And the
Lithuanians are saying: we are even poorer than you are. Why should we bail you
out? And so on.
So what should the Greek government do?
They should stick with their position not to accept a continuation of the
existing financial support programme. By doing this they would no longer be
bound by self-defeating policy targets such as the contractual requirement to
run a primary budget surplus of 3 per cent of gross domestic product. For a
country with mass unemployment, such a target is insane. It would, of course,
be better for this nonsense to stop while Greece remains in the eurozone. But
the most important thing is that it has to stop.
If this is not feasible, Athens would need to prepare a Plan B. This
does not necessarily mean a formal exit from the eurozone, which would be one
of the riskiest options. There are smarter choices to pursue first.
The most sensible one is the introduction
of a parallel currency — not necessarily paper money, more like a
government-issued debt instrument that can be used for certain purposes. A
number of economists have been thinking along these lines. Robert Parenteau, a US economist,
has proposed what he called “tax anticipation notes”. These are IOUs backed by
future tax revenue. Such instruments exist in the US at state level. They act as a
tax credit that allows governments to run a fiscal deficit until the economy
recovers. With such an instrument Greece could abandon austerity
without abandoning the euro.
John Cochrane, a conservative economist at
the University of
Chicago , also wants the
Greek government to print IOUs. They would be electronic money, not necessarily
cash and would be used to pay pensions and other transfer payments. The IOUs
would fulfil one of the core functions of money — a medium of exchange. You can
use them to buy food in the grocery store or to recapitalise parts of your
banking systems.
And what no one is saying — at least not in
polite company — is that once this system is in place, you can default on the
official European creditors. What can they do? They cannot eject you from the
eurozone. They have no legal means to do so. They cannot kick you out of the EU
either. They still need your assent for treaty change, or any policy requiring
unanimity, such as the renewal of the sanctions against Russia .
The riskier alternative would be a hard
exit — Grexit. This is an option Greece should try to avoid because
it is hugely disruptive. But the scale of the downside of this, at least for Greece , depends
on how it is managed. Grexit would be potentially more dangerous for the
eurozone itself because it could be a seen as a template for others, especially
in the absence of an economic Armageddon in Greece . Yet, while not desirable,
Grexit would still be preferable than the status quo.
The worst-case scenario would be for the
Greek government to blink first, and accept defeat. If Syriza were to be
co-opted into the policy consensus, the only political party left to oppose
these policies would be Golden Dawn, a neo-Nazi party.
My preference would be for the eurozone as
a whole to abandon the failed policies of the past five years, and move on. If
that proves politically impossible, the second best option, for Greece at
least, would be a semi-exit with a parallel currency and a default on official
creditors only. Either way, they will need to stand their ground on Monday.
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