Climate challenged

Climate challenged

By Mehreen Khan

February 26, 2020

It’s the traditional mid-winter skiing break for Brussels institutions this week, but the town’s attention is already turning to the unveiling of the EU’s upcoming “climate law”.

Next Wednesday, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen will present the centrepiece of her Green Deal: a landmark proposal to make the EU the world’s first climate neutral continent by 2050.

There will be plenty of fanfare around the launch. Even teen activist Greta Thunberg will be in town to confer legitimacy on what is easily the commission’s biggest policy promise in its first 100 days in office.

But behind the hype, questions are already surfacing about what the climate law means and how binding it will be on the EU’s member states.

For a start, despite claiming the status of a “law”, the 2050 target will not technically change the EU’s legal foundation as set out in its treaties. Instead the target will take the form of a standard Brussels regulation that will have to be transposed by all its member states.

It sounds wonkish, but the nature of the legislation has raised concerns about the tools von der Leyen has at her disposal to give legal force to her green ambitions and whether governments who ride roughshod over them can be punished.

As per standard EU regulations, the commission will have the power to launch infringement proceedings against recalcitrant member states. This involves a lengthy and incremental process of warnings and repeat warnings, where said governments can eventually end up being sanctioned by the European Court of Justice months or years after the event.

But Europe’s climate target isn’t your ordinary kind of EU law. Observers point out that if the commission wanted to sue governments for failing to reduce emissions by 2050, it could only launch a legal case in the late 2040s or in 2051. 

To obviate these pitfalls and give the target some legal teeth, officials are trying to come up with a way to impose more near-term emissions targets that commit all member states to a trajectory that hits net zero in 30 years time. But don’t expect much just yet.

Next week’s proposal will not include an EU-wide target for 2030 — a date that is perhaps the most significant milestone in Europe’s green transition. This will only be decided after an impact assessment later this year. Pro-green voices want the 2030 target to be nailed down in time for the EU to present a united front at COP26 international climate talks in Glasgow in November. But like any other regulation, the climate law will have to make its way through the parliament and council before being agreed.

It’s not a process that lends itself to speed. “If the only measurable target is more than a generation away, there could be little to hold governments to account,” warns Sebastian Mang of Greenpeace.

The details of next week’s proposal — which are being tightly guarded inside the Berlaymont — will matter. One senior official stresses that the 2050 goal is an EU-wide ambition. It will not commit every one of the EU’s 27 governments to reduce their own domestic emissions to zero. This has already raised hackles among some of the most advanced carbon cutters in Europe — like the Netherlands and Denmark — who have warned of laggards “free riding” on their efforts.

For all the climate law fireworks, Greta and other eagle-eyed observers might fail to fall for the hype.