Far-right
thorn in Angela Merkel’s side
Whether
AfD remains a political force depends on the chancellor’s plan to
reduce the refugee influx.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 3/15/16, 5:30 AM CET
BERLIN — For a
fledgling party that nearly collapsed last year amid intense
infighting over its direction, Germany’s populist AfD scored a
result in Sunday’s regional elections that is nothing short of
extraordinary.
Though the
Alternative for Germany was expected to put in a strong showing, the
final results surpassed even the most bullish projections. It won
24.2 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, 15.1 percent in
Baden-Württemberg and 12.6 percent in Rhineland-Palatinate.
As Germany’s
angst-ridden political establishment struggled on Monday to find
explanations for the right-wing surge, one question dominated the
debate: Does the AfD have staying power?
Clues to the answer
can be found in the reams of data collected as voters left the
polling stations.
Two findings stand
out: first, nearly one-third of AfD supporters did not vote in the
previous election; second, most AfD voters (about 90 percent in
Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, and 64 percent in
Saxony-Anhalt) said they supported the upstart because it “tells it
like it is,” not because they were convinced by the AfD’S ability
to fix problems.
A national issue —
the refugee influx — was on top of everyone’s mind, according to
the exit polls.
In other words, the
AfD’s success was the result of a classic protest vote, driven by
Germans disenchanted with the establishment, especially on the
question of refugees.
Though voters were
electing regional parliaments in the three German states, a national
issue — the refugee influx — was on top of everyone’s mind,
according to the exit polls. Given that all of the incumbent parties
support Angela Merkel’s refugee policy to varying degrees, the AfD
was the only option for voters who oppose the government’s
position.
That dynamic has
some political observers predicting a bleak future for the AfD.
Lack of a figurehead
Unlike in other
European countries, where populist parties rally around a single
personality, be it Marine Le Pen in France, Viktor Orbán in Hungary
or Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, the AfD has no such figure. It’s
leader, Frauke Petry, inspires none of the unbridled emotion of her
populist peers in Europe.
“Le Pen and Orbán
have been replaced by what has been declared a non-person — the
refugee,” the Süddeutsche Zeitung wrote in its lead editorial
Monday. “This non-person has become the AfD’s dominant figure.”
The refugee crisis
has given AfD a dramatic boost in support. In August, as the party
was still reeling from an internal battle over its direction, support
for the AfD dropped to just 4 percent. Then in September, Merkel
opened Germany’s borders to refugees and the party’s fortunes
reversed, scoring 11 percent in most recent national polls.
Whether the AfD
remains a political force largely depends on the success of Merkel’s
plan to reduce the influx of refugees. What has most unnerved Germans
about the crisis is not the number of refugees who landed in the
country last year, more than one million, but the outlook.
With thousands
pouring in every day, many Germans feared there was no end in sight.
That’s now beginning to change. The recent closure of the so-called
Balkan route has reduced the number of new arrivals to a trickle.
Though Merkel,
concerned about the strain the closure has placed on Greece,
vociferously opposed the decision by Austria and its neighbors to
seal their borders, she is benefiting from it politically.
Alternative for
Germany (AfD) top candidate for Saxony-Anhalt, Andre Poggenburg
Across Bavaria,
communities have been given the green light to decommission emergency
shelters, allowing high school gyms and other public facilities to be
used for their intended purpose. The number of emergency shelters in
southern Bavaria has in recent weeks dropped to just four from 20,
for example.
One-issue party?
To ensure the
shelters stay closed, Merkel will have to negotiate a breakthrough at
the EU summit later this week. European leaders are expected to
finalize a complicated deal with Turkey at the meeting that promises
to significantly reduce the number of Syrians and other asylum
seekers reaching Europe.
If successful, the
plan would allow Merkel to rob the AfD of its only issue, analysts
say.
“As soon as the
public anxiety about refugees diminishes, fewer people will vote for
the AfD,” said Joerg Forbrig, a Berlin-based analyst with the
German Marshall Fund of the United States. “There’s a certain
maximum expansion they are likely to have reached.”
That isn’t to say
the AfD will disappear.
Germany has long
been an anomaly in Europe by not having a potent populist party. That
era appears to be over. The AfD is now represented in half of
Germany’s 16 state legislatures and appears likely to win entry to
the federal parliament in next year’s general election. In 2013, it
missed the 5 percent threshold by a fraction.
To succeed at the
national level, the party will have reconcile its extreme and more
moderate messages. Though the party has a general anti-foreigner
view, its representatives in Germany’s eastern states tend to take
a harder line than those in the west. That has led to tension in the
party’s leadership which is likely to continue in the months ahead.
AfD leaders have
suggested that German border police be allowed to shoot refugees as a
last resort, including women and children.
Unlike in France,
where one party dominates the government, Germany’s political
culture is driven by consensus. And the center of German politics
remains firm. Despite the AfD’s gains, centrist parties such as
Merkel’s Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats still
captured a clear majority of the vote on Sunday.
So far, all of the
centrist forces refuse to cooperate with the AfD. After largely
ignoring the party in recent years, Merkel’s conservatives, which
are most exposed to the AfD, appear prepared to go on the attack.
In many respects,
the AfD is an easy target.
In recent months,
its leaders have suggested that German border police be allowed to
shoot refugees as a last resort, including women and children. They
also espoused racial theories about Africans that recall the Nazi’s
pseudo-science. All the while, they have made the mainstream media a
target, lampooning journalists who ask critical questions as the
Lügenpresse, or lying press.
Not long after the
first results came in Sunday, German Defense Minister Ursula von der
Leyen, a Merkel conservative, gave the AfD a taste of what’s in
store.
During a talkshow
appearance with Beatrix von Storch, who represents the AfD in the
European Parliament, von der Leyen told her: “From now on there is
no more Lügenpresse. From now on there are minutes of the
legislative proceedings that everyone can read.”
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