5
takeaways from Merkel’s election drubbing
The
stinging results of regional polls in three German states test the
chancellor’s refugee policy — and her rule.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 3/13/16, 11:50 PM CET
BERLIN — German
voters, going to the ballot box for the first time since Angela
Merkel’s decision last fall to open the country to refugees,
inflicted crushing defeats on the chancellor’s Christian Democrats
(CDU) in two western German states.
Sunday’s regional
elections in three of Germany’s 16 states were widely seen as a
barometer of the public’s views on Merkel’s controversial refugee
policy. Her conservatives had been braced for a reality check, but
trusted in the polls that showed support for the chancellor remained
strong despite the widespread unease in Germany over the number of
refugees.
They were not
prepared for what can only be described as a historic debacle. The
CDU had hoped to retake two western German states, Baden-Württemberg
and Rhineland-Palatinate, but instead recorded the party’s
worst-ever results there. While the CDU managed to hold onto
Saxony-Anhalt in the east, it also suffered losses there compared to
the last election five years ago.
The chancellor’s
allies argue that a decision by the two local candidates to distance
themselves from Merkel’s refugee policy, which opened them to
accusations of disloyalty, contributed to the loss. Even so, the
decisive factor in the day’s defeats was the refugee strategy
itself.
No party was hit
harder than Merkel’s CDU, with declining support across the board.
The day’s big
winner was without question the far-right Alternative für
Deutschland (AfD). The party ran a xenophobic campaign that played on
public fears about refugees. It took nearly a quarter of the votes in
Saxony-Anhalt, where it finished second. The party, which appeared on
the ballot for the first time, won more than 10 percent of the vote
in the other two states as well, signaling broad regional opposition
to Merkel’s stance on refugees.
All of the
established parties took a thrashing in at least one state. The
Greens, for example, won Baden-Württemberg but collapsed in
Rhineland Palatinate. The Social Democrats held Rhineland Palatinate
but slumped in the other two states to historic lows.
But no party was hit
harder than Merkel’s CDU, with declining support across the board.
The result will have profound political implications for the
chancellor both in Germany and Europe.
Here are five
takeaways from these elections:
1. Europe’s center
of power just shifted across the Bosphorus
Sundays’ defeat
puts Merkel, and other European leaders, more than ever at the mercy
of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
EU leaders are due
to meet with Turkey later this week to hash out a refugee deal that
Berlin sees as Merkel’s last best hope to bring the crisis under
control before it opens up further divisions in Europe. With
thousands of refugees stranded in a make-shift camp on Greece’s
border with Macedonia and more on the way, Europe can’t afford to
let the Turkish deal collapse.
Ankara knows Merkel
is desperate and is already asking a high price to take the problem
off the EU’s hands: the acceleration of its EU membership talks;
visa liberalization for Turkish citizens; and billions more in aid.
Merkel has been courting the Turks for months, arguing that Turkey is
the linchpin to any realistic solution.
Erdoğan, well aware
that Merkel is isolated in Europe and losing influence at home, can
be expected to exploit her weakness to drive a hard bargain.
2. The
Willkommenskultur is dead
Until now, Merkel
succeeded in pushing back challenges to her refugee policy. She
ignored pressure from the CDU’s Bavarian sister party to impose
strict border controls or to declare an upper limit on the number of
refugees Germany will accept. Exit polls Sunday left no doubt that
the refugee crisis was the overriding issue on voters’ minds and
that many are unhappy with the status quo.
In the coming days,
Merkel will face renewed calls from within her party to get tough. If
the Turkey deal doesn’t produce quick relief, Merkel will likely
have no choice but to agree. Her government has already passed a slew
of new legislation aimed at preventing abuse of asylum rules. But
hardliners in her party want a crackdown. This time, her
interlocutors are unlikely to take no for an answer.
Alternative for
Germany (AfD) supporters celebrate the announcement of the first
predictions in the parliamentary elections in the states of
Baden-Wuerttemberg, Saxony-Anhalt and Rhineland-Palatinate
3. Let the race (to
succeed Merkel) begin
Until the refugee
crisis hit, the German leader seemed all but invincible. But her
failure to broker a broad solution at the European level, leaving
Germany virtually alone to shoulder the problem, has left her
exposed. Her approval ratings are back above 50 percent but have
proved volatile. Sunday’s verdict was a clear warning from the
electorate that Germans have lost patience with the chancellor’s
deliberate approach to the crisis. Merkel argues, with justification,
that the myriad challenges Germany faces on the refugee front won’t
be solved overnight.
Yet, the election
loss changes the dynamic. For the first time, her own party critics
can point to hard election results to argue that her policies are
having a detrimental effect on them. Though Germans are roughly split
between those who support and those who oppose the chancellor’s
course on refugees, many in her own party are in the latter camp.
With Merkel’s
party already divided on the issue, it’s only a matter of time
before challengers emerge. It’s still very unlikely she would be
ousted as chancellor between now and the next round of elections,
expected in the fall of 2017. But if she doesn’t turn the tide in
her favor soon, she may either decide or be forced by her party to
forgo another run.
4. Germany is
veering right with the rest of Europe
For years, Germany
appeared to be an island in Europe as the only major country without
a strong far-right populist movement. Political scientists and
columnists debated the degree to which the German anomaly was rooted
in the trauma of the country’s 20th century history.
Turns out these
voters were always there, they just weren’t voting. In all three
states that held elections Sunday, the main source of the AfD’s
support was from voters who hadn’t cast a ballot in the last
election. It also poached hundreds of thousands of voters from the
established parties, in particular, Merkel’s CDU. The AfD’s
strong showing reflects deep dissatisfaction in many parts of Germany
with the political establishment.
Support for such
parties in other countries has proved volatile. While the refugee
backlash proved to be a perfect match for the AfD’s anti-foreigner
message, support for such parties in other countries has proved
volatile.
Nonetheless, that
the party managed to capture between 12.5 percent and 24 percent of
the vote in its first running in the three states that held elections
on Sunday is nothing short of stunning. It suggests that AfD, which
has morphed from an anti-euro movement into the kind of right-wing
populist party typical across Europe, is here to stay.
The CDU and the CSU,
its more conservative Bavarian sister, will likely be tempted to try
to recapture the support they’ve lost on their right flank.
So far, those
attempts have largely failed, as voters opted for the original.
5. Green is the new
black
The victory of Green
incumbent Winfried Kretschmann in Baden-Württemberg could have
far-reaching consequences for Germany’s party landscape. The result
was the best ever by the Greens in a state election. Even more
striking was that it occurred in Baden-Württemberg, a CDU stronghold
for decades that can hardly be described as tree-hugger country.
The conservative
region is Germany’s industrial heartland. Both Mercedes and Porsche
are based there as are scores of small and medium-sized companies
that form the backbone of the German economy. That the state voted
Green illustrates how moderate some chapters of the party have become
in old age. Under Kretschmann, a pragmatic white-haired grandfatherly
figure, Baden-Württemberg’s Greens have all but lost their hippie
image.
Though most voters
said they voted for Kretschmann — whose approval rating is over 80
percent — and not the party itself, the success offers a path for
Greens to gain power. Kretschmann’s moderate message isn’t shared
by many Greens, including much of the party leadership in Berlin.
Still, what’s
striking about Kretschmann’s victory is that much of his support
comes from former CDU voters. The results suggest that a Green-led
coalition with the CDU, referred to in Germany’s party color
spectrum as the Blacks (due to the CDU’s proximity to the Catholic
church), is the most likely outcome.
It wouldn’t be the
first time the two parties have formed a coalition, but it would mark
the first Green-led coalition. Among the CDU’s options for
coalition partners at the national level, some believe a Black-Green
federal government could be in the cards after next year’s
elections.
Authors:
Matthew Karnitschnig
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