 |
Em desespero, Merkel
está cada vez mais isolada. Ao abrir a caixa de pandora, Merkel
libertou energias e dinâmicas, agora aparentemente incontroláveis,
mas prevísiveis.
Agora,segundo o DER
SPIEGEL de 23 de janeiro, a Alemanha já prepara um plano B, embora Merkel em desespero
e afim de nào perder a face, não o admita públicamente.
OVOODOCORVO
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Stemming
the Flow: Berlin Hunts for Back-Up Plan in Refugee Crisis
By
Dietmar Hipp, Peter Müller, Ralf Neukirch and Christoph Schult
January
22, 2016 – 06:57 PM
Officially,
the German government wants a Europe-wide solution to the Continent's
mounting refugee problem. Behind the scenes, though, Berlin is
searching for a Plan B to solve the crisis. Is the country moving
closer to closing its borders?
Sometimes, the
greatest changes are announced very quietly. Each Thursday,
representatives of the countries located along the refugee route that
crosses the Balkans meet by video conference for a briefing on the
current situation. Are there sufficient accommodations in Greece? Are
there enough heated tents in Croatia. There are numerous
organizational and administrative questions, and the whole affair has
an almost routine feel to it.
Participating in the
group on Germany's behalf is Uwe Corsepius, Chancellor Angela
Merkel's European policy advisor. Last Thursday, he and his
colleagues from Austria and Slovenia informed the others first talks
were being conducted about, among other things, finding ways to
better control Slovenia's borders.
That may not sound
like much, but was nothing less than an announcement that Germany was
making a strategic shift in its refugee policies. Merkel has been
insistent that a European solution needs to be found for the crisis.
But asked what this "European solution" might look like,
officials are giving a different answer these days than they used to.
Previously, the
official German position had been that refugees should be stopped at
the European Union's external borders in Greece and Italy. The plan
had been to open up large initial reception centers, so-called
hotspots, where refugees would be registered and a decision made on
their possible redistribution to other European countries. Merkel
says she is still pursuing this plan.
The problem is that
the opening of the hotspots is moving ahead extremely slowly. Greece
in particular, the country through which most refugees are currently
traveling to the European Union, isn't adhering to its obligations.
It's one of the main reasons the number of refugees has not dropped
in Germany to a degree that might reduce political pressure on
Merkel.
'Not
Helpful'
Instead, the
opposite is happening. With its announcement that it wants to cap the
number of refugees entering into Austria at 37,500 in 2016, Merkel
has been pushed even further onto the defensive. The development "is
not helpful," the German chancellor admitted on Wednesday at a
meeting CSU state parliamentarians in Bavaria. The CSU is the sister
party of Merkel's CDU.
With the number of
allies supporting Germany's approach in Europe shrinking, staff in
Merkel's Chancellery are currently working on a Plan B, one that the
CSU has been the most vehement in demanding. Officially, Merkel is
denying the existence of any such plan. She doesn't want to create
the impression that she is buckling under pressure from CSU head and
Bavarian Governor Horst Seehofer, whose state, which shares a border
with Austria, is feeling the brunt of the influx of refugees. But the
government is nevertheless pursuing a Plan B, even if it looks a
little different from the one envisioned by the CSU.
The chancellor
continues to reject the setting an upper ceiling on refugees and
imposing the strict border controls Seehofer is demanding. Merkel is
concerned that doing so would mean the end of the Schengen zone of
border-free travel within much of the EU. But there may also be a
more elegant solution, one that was first introduced by the Austrian
government.
Pushing
Schengen North
The idea foresees
Slovenia playing a key role -- as the first country after Greece
along the West Balkan route that has an external Schengen border. The
plan would envision stopping all migrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan
and North Africa there. A growing number of migrants from these
regions have been using the West Balkan route to get to Germany,
despite the fact that they have little prospect of obtaining asylum
protection once they get here. The plan would mean that Europe's
internal borders to remain open.
Of the 1.83 million
refugees that the EU border protection agency Frontex estimates came
to Europe in 2015, some 227,000 came from Afghanistan. The number of
North Africans who have entered is far lower, but in recent weeks,
German authorities have observed a significant uptick in the number
of migrants from countries in the Maghreb region like Algeria and
Morocco.
Most have no chance
of obtaining asylum status. By shifting the Schengen external border
to Slovenia, refugees could be prevented from continuing their
journey to Germany. The unspoken hope in Berlin is that Slovenia
might make less of a fuss about the not uncontroversial legal aspects
of the move than would likely be the case in Germany.
Daniel Thym, a
European law professor at the University of Konstanz in Germany, says
the question of whether officials at the Slovenian border can simply
turn asylum-seekers away is an open one. He describes it as a "legal
gray area" that surely isn't in the spirit of the original
vision of the EU's Dublin Regulation on refugees. But, he added, it
might be possible to create legal constructs that would make it
permissible.
Divergent
Views
At first glance, the
plan looks like a solid one, but it also contains a number of
shortcomings, as officials in Berlin well know. Slovenia would likely
have trouble controlling so many refugees on its own. Thus far,
Germany has sent around 10 federal police officers to Slovenia to
help consult their colleagues there, but they do not have any actual
border patrol responsibilities themselves. So far, there haven't been
any additional requests for assistance, either.
It's also unclear
whether the government in Ljubljana will even be willing to help. The
question of what shape this border cooperation could take is also an
open one. Officials in the German Interior Ministry say that Austria,
which first approached the German government with the idea a few
weeks ago, so far hasn't made any concrete proposal.
The reason may be
that views in Berlin and Vienna over how the borders are to be
controlled have diverged so strongly. The German government and the
European Commission don't want to implement measures that could
destabilize Greece or the countries bordering Slovenia. Countries
like Serbia "must not become a parking lot or 'no man's land'
for stranded refugees," EU Expansion Minister Johannes Hahn said
last fall. "It's a matter of turning the wave around without
chaos breaking out in the Balkans," one source in the European
Commission said.
Some members of the
Austrian government view things differently. On Wednesday, Vienna
announced its intention to cap the number of asylum-seekers the
country takes in. Shortly after the announcement, Foreign Minister
Sebastian Kurz said he believed a resulting traffic jam of refugees
would create "pressure" on Europe to find a common solution
for the refugee problem. "If Greece can't better secure its
external borders, there's unfortunately a risk that the country may
soon have to temporarily leave the Schengen area," says Manfred
Weber, the German head of the European People's Party group (the
conservative Christian Democrats) in the European Parliament.
The German
government wants to proceed more cautiously. "It cannot be in
our interest for the situation in the West Balkans and Greece to
further deteriorate," says Michael Roth, a senior official with
Germany's Foreign Ministry.
Tensions
Between Berlin and Vienna
Without a
coordinated effort between Berlin and Vienna, it's highly unlikely
that this Plan B could be successful. But Austria's introduction of
an upper ceiling has done little to improve those prospects. Sources
close to Merkel describe the plans as "grotesque." Although
the Austrians have stated that they informed Berlin about the details
of their refugee cap, no one in Berlin knows what will happen with
the refugees who go beyond that limit. Inside the Austrian Foreign
Ministry, officials aren't ruling out the possibility that they will
simply be waved on to neighboring Germany. Slovenia is already doing
that. The government announced on Thursday that in the future it
would only allow refugees into the country that planned to submit
their applications for asylum in Germany or Austria.
Nevertheless, there
is unity between the countries on the issue of being able to deport
asylum-seekers from Maghreb countries whose applications have been
rejected. To that end, Germany wants to help these countries'
embassies in Berlin in identifying the true origins of the refugees
in question. Given that they often aren't carrying any legal ID
papers, Germany would like to provide them with so-called EU Laissez
Passer documents, thus making it easier to repatriate them to their
countries of origin. "The current multi-phase return system is
too cumbersome," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter
Steinmeier, of the center-left Social Democratic Party, wrote in a
joint letter with Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière, of the
Christian Democrats, addressed to their colleagues in North Africa.
The letter also indicates countries will be rewarded if they
cooperate.
And if none of that
helps? At the end of the day, it may be the case that Germany has to
reject massive numbers of asylum-seekers at its borders. During her
visit to CSU representatives of the Bavarian state legislature on
Wednesday, Merkel said that step could only be taken as a last
resort.
'A
Fundamentally New Situation'
Experts are also
divided on the question of whether it is even legal for German police
to implement such an order. In an internal analysis, officials at the
Interior and Justice ministries came to the initial conclusion that,
under the Dublin III Regulation, each EU member state has the right
to send asylum-seekers trying to enter its borders to a safe third
country. But it is unclear whether, in formal terms, another EU
member state could also be considered a "safe third country."
The internal analysis concludes there would be "inherent legal
risks" in doing so. But it appears to be tenable.
Furthermore, the
paper states, a "fundamentally new situation" has arisen as
a result of the "current systemic failure of the European
(external) border protection and asylum system" with the
"transmission of thousands of people seeking protection to the
German border," which has in turn necessitated measures to
ensure public safety. Ultimately, however, any decision will have to
be a political one.
"You can
attempt to justify such rejection of refugees at an internal EU
border," says law professor Thym. However, he argues it is less
certain that it would hold up in court. Either way, Thym concludes,
Germany "is currently in a political situation in which the law
is given only secondary consideration."
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