Brussels
Briefing: Is Angela Merkel in trouble?
Peter Spiegel
| Jan 15 12:12 |
The knives have been
out for Angela Merkel almost since the outset of the refugee crisis.
But the rebellion from within the German chancellor’s own ranks
appeared to have subsided ahead of the Christmas holidays. Gone were
pointed asides by Wolfgang Schäuble, who in November warned of an
“avalanche” of refugees because of “careless” government
actions. Many read that as an unofficial signal that the powerful
finance minister – who has long coveted the chancellery – was
prepared to step in should Ms Merkel fall.
But in recent days,
the German press has been filled with renewed accounts of plotting
within the centre-right coalition – her own Christian Democratic
Union and its more conservative Bavarian sister party, the Christian
Social Union. The scheming was linked to anger surrounding the New
Year’s Eve attacks by men of “north African and Arab”
appearance on scores of women in Cologne. Ms Merkel even cancelled
her annual trip to Davos to handle the political troubles at home,
though Berlin later denied the cancellation had anything to do with
Cologne.
The conservative
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung has reported that a confidence vote is
likely to come before the end of the month, a measure backed by
“several dozen deputies” within the CDU/CSU. Süddeutsche Zeitung
notes that even the CDU general secretary, Peter Tauber, has got in
on the act, demanding the deportation of 1,000 refugees denied asylum
every day. Süddeutsche argues that the rather unchristian stance
from Christian Democrats is just another reflection of pressures
within the party, where voices are rising to shut the borders and set
caps on the number of refugees accepted – a policy explicitly
backed by Horst Seehofer, the seemingly mutinous head of the CSU.
Officials say that
Ms Merkel’s refusal to back down on either border controls or
refugee caps is a sign of her confidence that she will fight off any
rebellion. Volker Kauder, the head of the CDU in the Bundestag,
insists there is a “clear, clear majority” behind the
chancellor’s policies.
But opposition
politicians also note the calculations have changed since the
previous time Ms Merkel faced a sizable rebellion from within her own
party, during last year’s fight over a third Greek bailout. Back
then, conservative CDU/CSU MPs may have been angry with Ms Merkel’s
decision to avoid Grexit, but opinion polls showed the party remained
above 40 per cent – about where they were during the 2013 federal
election – meaning their seats were safe. The latest poll puts the
CDU/CSU at just 35 per cent, with the anti-Muslim Alternative für
Deutschland party at 11.5 per cent, one of its highest levels ever.
For CDU/CSU members of the Bundestag, that means seats at risk, a
great motivator for any politician.
There are few signs
things will get easier for Ms Merkel anytime soon. Gerhard Schröder,
her predecessor, weighed in on Thursday in an interview with
Handelsblatt, arguing the chancellor has ignored the dangerous
reality of open borders. As if that wasn’t enough, a Bavarian local
official carried though with a threat to put 51 asylum seekers on a
bus and drive them to Ms Merkel’s office in Berlin. The Bavarian
CSU has always been the most restless on the refugee issue. In other
words, a bus-full of refugees may not be the only thing coming north
to Berlin.
What we’re reading
Is Europe in the
middle of referendum mania? It’s the provocative question The
Economist’s man in Brussels Tom Nuttall asks in his new Charlemagne
column. The British are voting on whether to stay in the EU, the
Dutch will vote on a trade deal with Ukraine in April, and the Danes
and the Greeks recently voted down further integration into the EU’s
justice structures and the terms of a third bailout, respectively. Mr
Nuttall notes that Margaret Thatcher once dismissed referendums as “a
device of dictators and demagogues,” and argues the sudden raft of
plebiscites is a sign “the silly season” has arrived. “All this
smells horribly undemocratic to some. But joining a club, or striking
a deal with it, will always limit governments’ room for manoeuvre,”
he argues.
Friday marks the
one-year anniversary of the night Belgian security forces broke up a
terrorist ring in Verviers, a working-class Wallonian town in the far
east of the county. At the time, the incident was largely overlooked,
particularly as it came fast on the heels of the killings in the
office of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo. But US
intelligence later determined the Belgians had broken up what
appeared to be the first organised terrorist attack on European soil
by Islamic State – a plot organised by Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the
Belgian national who would go on to become the ringleader for the
November 13 attacks in Paris. Belgium’s leading legal rag La
Derniere Heure reports on the security precautions being taken to
ensure the anniversary is not marked by violence, including shutting
police stations in the region. The paper also has a good Q&A on
where the investigation into Verviers now stands.
Le Monde reports
that French authorities have finally identified the third terrorist
killed during the shootout in a Saint-Denis flat, where Abaaoud died
just days after the November Paris attacks. Authorities believe he’s
the man who detonated the suicide vest that likely killed those
inside. And yes, he’s Belgian.
There are increasing
signs that the Brexit campaign ahead of an in-out referendum in the
UK is finally beginning to heat up. A day after the leader of the
House of Commons, Chris Grayling, wrote in the Daily Telegraph that
the EU was “disastrous” for Britain, Brexiteers are now seizing
on remarks by European Commission Brexit czar Jonathan Faull that
many of the reforms David Cameron is seeking do not require treaty
change – something widely known in Brussels, but rarely discussed
by allies of the UK prime minister.
For an insightful
look at the other side of the argument, the Spectator takes us inside
“Project Fear”, the plan Mr Cameron has to scare the British
public into voting to stay in the EU – much as Scots were scared
last year to vote to stay inside Great Britain. And last night George
Osborne, the British finance minister, ended speculation that there
might be two separate Brexit referendums, one on whether to leave and
another on the terms of the divorce.
Could Kristalina
Georgieva, the popular Bulgarian member of the European Commission,
become the next secretary-general of the United Nations? The question
has been Brussels gossip for months. It is widely assumed the next UN
chief should come from Eastern Europe, and there is a push to a first
female appointee. There are few other candidates with those
qualifications and the kind of international respect Ms Georgieva has
gained. The FT’s chief foreign affairs columnist Gideon Rachman
takes a look at the candidates, and notes that many in the UN’s New
York headquarters “seem to be rooting for the 62-year-old
Georgieva, who has a reputation for being able and dynamic.”
Thursday’s meeting
of eurozone finance ministers was short and uneventful, though Jeroen
Dijsselbloem, the eurogroup president, made a bit of news at the
evening press conference after it ended. First, he said Euclid
Tsakalotos, the Greek finance minister, reconfirmed his desire to see
the International Monetary Fund participate in the new €86bn
bailout – an aspect that had become unclear in recent days but is
essential for Germany to continue funding Athens. Mr Dijsselbloem
also said the ministers talked about the rising politicisation around
the selection of managers for Greece’s major banks, most of which
are either state-owned or state controlled. That must end, he
insisted.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário