Cologne’s
aftershocks
The ultimate victim
of sexual assaults by migrants could be Angela Merkel’s liberal
refugee policy
Jan 16th 2016 |
BERLIN | From the print edition
FOR a brief moment
at the turn of the year, Angela Merkel seemed to have recaptured
control of Germany’s careering debate over refugees. The
chancellor’s traditional New Year’s Eve address was acclaimed for
striking just the right note. For the first time ever it was
broadcast with subtitles, in Arabic and English, so that refugees as
well as Germans would get her message. Mrs Merkel reminded the 1.1m
asylum-seekers who arrived in Germany in 2015 to respect German rules
and traditions. She urged her German viewers not to let themselves be
divided, and warned of “those who, with coldness or even hatred in
their hearts, lay sole claim to be German and seek to exclude
others”.
Yet even as Mrs
Merkel was speaking, about a thousand men, described by police as
mainly migrants of north African or Arab origin, began massing
between Cologne’s railway station and cathedral, where fireworks
were about to begin. Around midnight they broke into clusters and
formed huddles around women who had turned out to celebrate. They
then set upon the women, harassing and groping them, stripping them
of clothing and valuables. One victim was raped. Of the more than 600
women who have since come forward, many described the ordeal as
“running the gauntlet”.
The news took four
days to get out. Inexplicably, Cologne’s police initially reported
“relaxed” festivities. (On January 8th Wolfgang Albers, the local
police chief, was suspended for this and other failings.) The public
news networks were also slow to pick up the story, providing grist
for the conspiracy mills of populists who denounce the mainstream
media as a politically correct “liars’ press”.
But as the extent of
the crimes became clear, it raised questions about Mrs Merkel’s
liberal response to the crisis in Syria and the wider Middle East.
The chancellor has repeatedly told Germans: “We can handle this.”
Now her optimism is being hurled back at her with disdain. One of the
Cologne offenders purportedly taunted police: “I am a Syrian, you
have to treat me nicely—Mrs Merkel invited me!”
Growing numbers of
Germans worry about the large influx of Muslims. In a survey by INSA,
a pollster, 61% of respondents have become less happy about accepting
refugees since the assaults; 63% think there are already too many
asylum-seekers in Germany, and only 29% still agree with Mrs Merkel
that the country can handle it. The sceptics are not only on the
populist right. Alice Schwarzer, Germany’s leading feminist, says
that Germany is “naively importing male violence, sexism and
anti-Semitism”.
For now Mrs Merkel
and her governing coalition have responded by talking tough. At a
gathering of her centre-right Christian Democrats, she promised that
the offenders will “feel the full force of the law” and suggested
that more asylum-seekers who commit crimes would be deported. Even
her centre-left coalition partners, the Social Democrats, want to
crack down hard. Sigmar Gabriel, their boss, wants offenders to serve
their prison time in their home countries to spare German taxpayers.
Yet the legal
hurdles to increased deportation are daunting. First, it is not clear
how many of the Cologne offenders can be identified. Second, German
judges typically cannot deport criminals with sentences of less than
three years; the sexual offences in Cologne mainly fell short of
rape, and would carry lighter penalties than that. On January 12th
the interior minister, Thomas de Maizière, and the justice minister,
Heiko Maas, said they would expand the definition of rape (currently,
an assault does not count as rape unless the victim fights back).
They also promised to lower the deportation threshold, making it an
option even for those on probation. But even with these changes, the
Geneva conventions forbid deporting people to a country where they
might be executed, tortured or harmed. Finally, home countries must
co-operate; many don’t. Mr Gabriel is musing about cutting aid to
such states.
Playing into
xenophobes’ hands
Germany’s legal
reaction will therefore be slow and nuanced. But the transformation
of its public debate has been swift and blunt. The assaults were a
boon to Germany’s xenophobic right—from a movement that calls
itself Pegida (short for “Patriotic Europeans against the
Islamisation of the Occident”) to the new Alternative for Germany
(AfD) party. Predictably, AfD has called on Mrs Merkel to resign. In
social media and on the streets, the angry are more audible than the
nuanced. In Cologne 1,700 anti-migrant demonstrators faced off
against 1,300 pro-migrant demonstrators until the police broke it up.
Thugs roamed the streets attacking foreigners, injuring two
Pakistanis and one Syrian.
Among the indirect
victims of Cologne are the many migrants who would not dream of
assaulting anyone, and who came to Germany seeking safety for
themselves and their families. Four refugees have drafted an open
letter to Mrs Merkel in which they express their support of women’s
rights and their shock at the assaults. They are handing the letter
round to collect signatures. Many refugees and German Muslims fear
being tarred with the same brush as the offenders.
In retrospect it is
clear that Mrs Merkel’s hopeful New Year’s address coincided with
the appearance of immigration’s dark side on German streets, and
that her warnings have not been heeded. Some refugees have not
respected German rules and traditions. Germans are divided. Germany’s
neighbours, from Hungary and Poland to Switzerland and Denmark, have
sneered at Mrs Merkel’s “welcome culture”. It now looks tenuous
even at home.
From the print
edition: Europe
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