sábado, 6 de agosto de 2016

For Donald Trump, this was more than a terrible week. It was a turning point / Donald Trump endorses Paul Ryan after previously refusing to back him

Donald Trump endorses Paul Ryan after previously refusing to back him

We may disagree on a couple of things but mostly we agree,’ the Republican candidate said of the House speaker in an attempt at party unity

Ben Jacobs in Washington
Saturday 6 August 2016 02.19 BST

Donald Trump finally endorsed US House speaker Paul Ryan on Friday, reversing himself after pointedly refusing to back the highest ranking elected Republican in an interview earlier this week.

In a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, on Friday night, Trump read his endorsement off a sheet of paper, saying: “In our shared mission to make America great again, I support and endorse our speaker of the House, Paul Ryan.”

“We may disagree on a couple of things but mostly we agree,” he added.

Ryan has pointedly criticized Trump’s call for a ban on Muslim migration to the US, and said that the Republican nominee’s attack on a federal judge was “the textbook definition of a racist comment”. This week, he also disagreed with Trump over the candidate’s running feud with the family of a Muslim American army captain killed in the Iraq war.

An aide to Ryan told the Guardian that the speaker “appreciates the gesture and is going to continue to focus on earning the endorsement of the voters in southern Wisconsin.”
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Trump said earlier this week in an interview with the Washington Post: “I like Paul, but these are horrible times for our country. We need very, very strong leadership. And I’m just not quite there yet. I’m not quite there yet.”

In May, after Trump clinched the nomination, Ryan expressed similar ambivalence about the man who won his party’s support, saying: “I’m just not ready to do that at this point. I’m not there right now.” Ryan eventually endorsed Trump in June, writing in an op-ed: “It’s no secret that he and I have our differences. I won’t pretend otherwise.”

However, in refusing to endorse Ryan, Trump was seen as thumbing his nose at Reince Priebus, the chair of the Republican National Committee and a leader who has gone out of his way to ensure that party elders treat Trump as a legitimate nominee. Priebus, a fellow Wisconsinite and close ally of Ryan, has fought hard to unite a party fractured by its nominee.

Ryan is widely expected to win his primary contest in a landslide this year, but his opponent, businessman Paul Nehlen, has adopted elements of Trump’s message and tone, and shares many of the same support from the fringes of the Republican party. Nehlen gained national attention Thursday by suggesting the deportation of all Muslims from the US.

On Friday, Trump also read out endorsements of senators John McCain of Arizona and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire. “While I’m at it, I hold in the highest esteem senator John McCain for his service to our country in uniform and in public office and I fully support and endorse his re-election,” Trump said.

“I also fully support and endorse Seantor Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, a state I truly love,” he added. “She is a rising star and will continue to represent the great people of New Hampshire so very well for a very long time.”

In his interview with the Washington Post, Trump attacked McCain, a decorated war hero, because he has “not done a good job for the vets”. He also called Ayotte “weak” and claimed to be beating her in polls, although the two are not competing and the senator has higher favorable numbers than Trump.

Last year Trump cast derision at McCain as well, calling the Vietnam veteran and 2008 nominee “not a war hero” because he was captured. Ayotte faces a tough re-election bid in New Hampshire, a swing state, and has said she will vote for Trump but withheld an explicit endorsement.
For Donald Trump, this was more than a terrible week. It was a turning point
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Trump has demolished his campaign, his brand and his party. He has squandered his vice-presidential pick and his convention, and several battleground states along with them. He picked several fights he could not win, and showed no sign of learning from his own failure.

It would be tempting to say this was just another week in the bizarre life of the Republican presidential nominee.

But it wasn’t. This week was a decisive turning point in the 2016 election, and there have been remarkably few of them in an campaign that is supposedly volatile.

In fact, the volatility and unpredictability of this election doesn’t come from polls or votes, but from the character of a single man: Donald J Trump. The real surprise of 2016 is how constant this contest has been.

Trump led the primary polls from the beginning and never lost his lead. He only surprised the chattering classes by defying their certainty that he would lose. That certainty was founded on nothing related to polling data, but rather their sheer disgust and disbelief with Trump’s politics.
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Having defied expectations once, Trump is now supposed to be able to defy polling gravity forever more. That would be a strange conclusion to draw from the primaries, but here we are.

Echoing the Trump campaign, the Fox News anchor Greta van Susteren distilled this position on Thursday, as she quizzed the poll-obsessed Karl Rove. “I see the rallies and they’re big, and I see the poll numbers, and he’s slipping in the polls,” she said. “I’m not so sure how accurate these polls are.”

Rove – the man who challenged the Fox News election desk as it called the 2012 election for Obama – was incredulous. “You’re assuming first of all, the polls are not reliable – all of them – and second of all, that a better test of this is the size of the crowds he gets at his rallies, which are big and enthusiastic,” he explained. “But I would remind you in the closing days in the 1984 presidential campaign, Walter Mondale was drawing large and enthusiastic rallies as he went on to narrowly win one state.”

To put it delicately, this is a difficult moment in the education of Donald Trump. For a candidate who leads every stump speech bragging about his poll numbers, there is less and less material every day. Ergo the polls – just like the media, Clinton and democracy itself – must be crooked.

It would be nice to call this a logical fallacy, but those are two words that should never be placed within physical proximity of Donald J Trump.

“I see some great polls,” he told a rally in Virginia on Tuesday. “I see one from the Los Angeles Times, just came out, where we’re ahead by four or five points. I see one from CNN where we’re down. I think these polls, I don’t know. There’s something about these polls. There’s something phony.”

That was the day after he told voters there was an even bigger problem with this confounding election. “I’m afraid the election’s going to be rigged,” he told voters in Ohio. “I have to be honest.”

Those who live in the reality-based world are having an easier time understanding Trump’s challenges. The simpler explanation is that he is losing because of his own performance and personality. As the saying goes, campaigns are like fish: they rot from the head down. This one stinks already and it’s only the start of August.

Barack Obama put it more diplomatically at his pre-vacation press conference. “If Mr Trump is up 10 or 15 points on election day and he ends up losing, then, you know, maybe he can raise some questions,” Obama ventured. “That doesn’t seem to be the case at the moment.”

No, it doesn’t. In any campaign cycle, there are periods when the dynamic turns decisively in one direction. While the dynamic can shift more than once, as the cycle runs its course there are fewer and fewer opportunities to do so.

George HW Bush engineered one of those shifts after his 1988 convention, turning a 17-point deficit into an eight-point lead, backed up by devastating TV ads. Bill Clinton enjoyed one of those shifts in 1992 when Ross Perot initially dropped out of the race, and Clinton never really lost his lead again.

In 2004, John Kerry staged a decent convention and held a narrow lead, but was soon destroyed by a better Republican convention and the swift-boat attacks that followed. Four years later, Barack Obama didn’t bury John McCain until the financial collapse that followed both conventions.

How does the past week of 2016 compare to those history-making moments in recent presidential history? Pretty favorably.

Trump miserably misjudged his dispute with the gold star parents of a fallen American soldier, Humayun Khan, who was Muslim. He drove a wedge between himself and the few Republican leaders who publicly tolerated his nomination. And he seriously undermined his own brand of patriotic nationalism, as well as his party’s reputation for strength on national security.

The lasting impact of Trump’s disastrous week came from its echoes of the Democratic convention. Each round of dispute with the Khan family only served to reinforce the criticism that he had sacrificed nothing. Each bone-headed response underscored Hillary Clinton’s attack on his temperament and qualifications to serve as commander-in-chief.

In the middle of his own circular firing squad, Trump decided to shoot at the one unifying Republican who has politely ignored his insanity: House speaker Paul Ryan. Trump’s support for Ryan’s primary opponent was – like the construction of so many hideous Trump Towers – wholly unnecessary.

Ryan’s response was to send out a fundraising email assuming Trump had already blown this election. “If we fail to protect our majority in Congress, we could be handing President Hillary Clinton a blank check,” the fundraiser said, echoing the congressional Republican party’s abandonment of Bob Dole in the closing weeks of the 1996 election.

Of course, these aren’t the closing weeks of the 2016 campaign. Trump could yet turn around his national polling deficit of up to 14 points. He could flip the polls in Florida (down four), Michigan (down nine), Pennsylvania (down 13) and New Hampshire (down 15). He could turn Georgia and Utah back into reliably Republican states again, instead of being dead-heat states.

But Trump only has one shot left to do that: the TV debates that start in another seven weeks. At the same time, history suggests that post-convention polling is remarkably stable stretching all the way into the final days of an election.

It’s going to be a long, hot summer for the orange one.

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