5
takeaways from the Spanish Socialists’ civil war
Pedro
Sánchez faces a coup but won’t back down. Whatever happens, the
party is in trouble.
By DIEGO TORRES
9/29/16, 10:04 PM CET
MADRID — The
137-year-old Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) is in crisis,
rocked by a coup against leader Pedro Sánchez and split into two
factions that question each other’s right to exist.
Who wins the fight
will determine the future of the party and of Spain itself, which has
suffered through months of political paralysis and two inconclusive
elections — and will hold a third ballot if no one can put together
a coalition by the end of October.
On Wednesday
evening, 17 of the 35 members of the party’s executive commission
resigned in a bid to remove Sánchez from power. The party’s
terrible electoral results and Sánchez’s refusal to allow the
conservative People’s Party, led by Mariano Rajoy, to form a
minority government had left him increasingly isolated.
Sánchez on Thursday
held talks with the remaining commission members and pressed ahead
with plans for a party congress to let grassroots members choose the
leader. Voting is scheduled for October 23, with the winner’s
official coronation planned for mid-November.
However, one of the
rebels, Verónica Pérez, the president of the Federal Committee (the
nearly 300-strong party governing body), said Sánchez and his
loyalists no longer had any authority.
“In this moment,
the only authority that exists in the PSOE is the president of the
Federal Committee, who, like it or not, is me,” she said at the
front door of the party headquarters.
Pérez waited for
two hours in the hallway of the HQ on Thursday but Sánchez
supporters refused to let her in.
In the evening,
Andalusia’s president Susana Díaz opposed Sánchez’s schedule,
saying that the party needs first to “give the country a
government,” and then think about its future direction. She didn’t
directly advocate letting Rajoy govern, but warned that all options
are “bad options.”
Here are five
takeaways from the Socialists’ civil war:
1. The odds are
against Sánchez
The numbers in the
pro- and anti-Sánchez camps are evenly split but, in terms of the
power they wield, the leader’s detractors are way out in front. The
PSOE governs in seven Spanish regions, and only one of those local
leaders backs Sánchez. One of the six who oppose him is the powerful
Díaz, who, if Sánchez falls, is seen as a likely future leader.
Regional leaders
from historically important areas for the party such as Catalonia and
the Basque Country support Sánchez, but they aren’t in power.
Sánchez doesn’t enjoy great support among party elders. Former
Prime Minister Felipe González is an outspoken critic who has
accused him of lying about facilitating Rajoy’s investiture,
although former prime ministerial candidate Josep Borrell and a few
others have offered Sánchez their support. In terms of the
grassroots party members, Sánchez’s willingness to call a vote
indicates that he’s confident of having their support.
People wave
'Estelades' (pro-independence Catalan flags) as they gather during a
pro-independence demonstration
2. The Corbynite
route
Sánchez’s most
powerful opponents wanted him to allow Rajoy to remain in office and
take the blame for keeping the center-right in power. Their plan was
to kick out Sánchez and replace him with a new leader — probably
Diaz — and have a fresh start in opposition to a weak Conservative
government. Sánchez wasn’t prepared to join in and has taken his
lead from Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the U.K.’s opposition party:
pitting the grassroots supporters against the party establishment. He
also tried to frame the debate in a simple way: a fight between those
who were prepared to facilitate Rajoy’s second mandate and those
who were not.
Labour party leader
Jeremy Corbyn addresses delegates and members during his keynote
speech at the ACC on September 28, 2016 in Liverpool, England | Leon
Neal/Getty Images
Labour party leader
Jeremy Corbyn addresses delegates and members during his keynote
speech at the ACC on September 28, 2016 in Liverpool, England | Leon
Neal/Getty Images
However, that
doesn’t take into account that Sánchez has led the party to its
worst electoral performances in its history. That alone would, for
many, be enough for a leadership change. And not all of Sánchez
supporters are convinced that they should refuse a government by
Rajoy at all costs – including a third ballot.
3. Ideological
differences
Although there are
no major ideological differences between the opposing factions, some
key issues are pushing them apart. The most powerful opponents of
Sánchez share a more unitarian, centralist vision of the country,
whereas Sánchez allies are more inclined towards a federal,
decentralized Spain.
The problem for
Sánchez is that the centralist leaders are the only ones winning
elections for the PSOE. The problem for the PSOE is that it has lost
significant ground to the far-left Podemos, which favors
self-determination, in independent-minded regions like Catalonia and
the Basque Country, and it is unlikely to win them back with a
centralist mindset.
That makes no easy
choice for the party. And there’s also a problem of credibility
about a leftward push: Where Sánchez differs from Corbyn is the
Labour leader is a lifelong leftist, whereas Sánchez — a
44-year-old economics professor who worked in a private university in
Madrid — was chosen as leader precisely because he was seen as a
moderate.
4. Rulebook riddles
The party’s rules
are so badly designed that the legal arguments put forward by both
sides seem to be correct — but they want completely different
outcomes. So divided is the party that almost no one is advocating
compromise and negotiation. Whoever wins, the party will remain
deeply divided and in no fit shape to face new elections or make one
of the most difficult decisions in its history. On Saturday, the
Federal Committee is expected to meet and try to decide on Sánchez’s
plan to hold a leadership vote this month.
5. Rajoy wins again
The acting prime
minister’s beloved “wait and see” approach is again paying
dividends. With the PSOE in its worst shape in decades, whatever
happens to his traditional rival will suit him. Another beneficiary
of the PSOE’s disarray is Pablo Iglesias of Podemos, who can
portray himself as the only truly leftist option in the country.
Iglesias, whose own
party was deeply divided after its failure to overtake the PSOE in
June’s elections, has been given one more chance at beating the
establishment and becoming the leading voice of the Left in Spain.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário