‘Hard Brexit’ gives Scottish nationalists hope
Theresa
May is ‘one of the best things to happen to our campaign since it
began.’
By CHARLIE COOPER
and JULES JOHNSTON 10/16/16, 6:00 AM CET
GLASGOW — Scottish
nationalism has a surprising new pin-up: Theresa May.
The British prime
minister’s hardline stance on Brexit may have won friends in
England. But in nationalist Glasgow — Scotland’s hulking
industrial heart — it is toxic. Over the past three days at the
Scottish National Party‘s conference in the city, the prospect of a
“hard” Tory-led Brexit loomed everywhere and its potential boon
to independence was never far from the surface.
Brexit might be
anathema to Scottish nationalism, but it’s now its best hope of
freedom from Westminster.
Alex Salmond, former
leader of the party which runs the devolved administration in
Edinburgh and holds 54 out of Scotland’s 59 seats in Westminster,
has made it his life’s work to divorce Scotland from the United
Kingdom and turn it into an independent country. For Salmond and
those who share his vision, Brexit is a golden opportunity.
“Where we are just
now is a bit like jumping off the Scott monument,” Salmond said in
an interview, referring to the imposing 60-meter high landmark in
Edinburgh. “We’re looking around half-way down and saying: ‘Well,
it’s alright so far.’”
If
[the U.K. government] go for hard Brexit, then they’ll hit the
ground with one almighty thump. And that seems to be the way they are
moving” — Alex Salmond
“But if [the U.K.
government] go for hard Brexit, then they’ll hit the ground with
one almighty thump. And that seems to be the way they are moving,”
he said.
They face fierce
May’s government which is determined to preserve the territorial
integrity of the U.K.. Scotland’s independence aspirations, they
say, were put to rest at the 2014 referendum when 55 percent of
voters cast their ballots against it.
However, throughout
the week in Glasgow, the fervor for ‘IndyRef2’ was palpable. The
Scottish economy significantly benefits from European single market
membership and at the June 23 referendum, 62 percent of voters
supported the Remain camp. With May signaling a ‘hard Brexit,’ in
all probability leaving the single market, Scots feel like prisoners
in a car “being driven at 70 miles per hour off a fecking cliff,”
one senior SNP figure said.
Though the SNP
backed Remain, senior figures in the party now recognize that the
harder the Brexit that May delivers, and the tougher the economic
consequences for the U.K., the more likely will the Scottish people
be willing to back another independence referendum.
Breaking free from
the U.K., they calculate, may be their only route back into the EU
and the single market.
“The case for
independence is very much there,” said MP Stephen Gethins, the
party’s spokesman on Europe in Westminster. “At the moment, the
government in Westminster appear to be telling us this is going to be
the hardest of hard exits from the European Union with a devastating
effect on the economy, on jobs and benefits that we take granted. As
that becomes clearer, and if the U.K. continues down its current path
then the demand for independence is going to increase.”
Scotland’s popular
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who succeeded Salmond after the
failed independence referendum two years ago, on Thursday fired the
legislative starting gun for a second vote — to rapturous applause
from the party faithful. However, her announcement only committed to
publishing a consultation on a second referendum.
Not all dream of
independence
While the SNP is the
dominant power in Scotland, it is not all-powerful. Nor is its dream
of independence universal.
A poll published by
BMG Research this week showed support for independence remains where
it was in 2014. And despite significant support for Remain in June,
four months later the majority of Scots do not support holding a
second referendum on exiting from the U.K.
SNP officials seized
upon another of the poll’s findings. Asked how a ‘hard Brexit’
— taking the U.K. out of the EU single market — would affect
voters’ decision on holding a second vote, 43 percent said they’d
back it, 42 percent were against it and 15 percent were undecided.
“We know that
Brexit will damage our economy,” Sturgeon told supporters Thursday,
setting the tone for the case that the SNP will make in weeks and
months to come. “Hard Brexit — removal, not just from the EU, but
from the single market as well — will be disastrous.”
The independent
Fraser of Allander Institute predicts that a ‘hard Brexit’ could
result in the loss of 80,000 jobs in Scotland. Meanwhile, the pound
continues to fall and the Bank of England has issued inflation
warnings. If things go on like this, then, as Gethins calculates, the
case for remaining in the U.K. might well weaken.
If the Scottish
people and Scotland’s parliament do rally behind a second
referendum, May will find it extremely difficult to stop it. However,
re-entering the EU as an independent country may not be a
straightforward option for Scotland.
‘A country leaving
a country that is leaving EU’
Spain has expressed
opposition and even threatened to veto Scotland’s return to the EU
if it chose to break away from the U.K., mainly to discourage Catalan
separatists from following suit. One senior SNP figure told POLITICO
that contacts had been made with Spanish MPs, suggesting that Madrid
could change its mind after Brexit gets underway.
“Spain won’t say
anything until Article 50 is triggered, but after that, an
independent Scotland joining the EU becomes a completely different
question for Spain,” the SNP senior figure said. “We’d be a
country leaving a country that was leaving the EU. That wouldn’t be
setting a precedent for the Spanish situation with Catalonia, because
Spain isn’t leaving the EU any time soon.”
Many in the party,
including Salmond, are urging Sturgeon to be bold. The former leader
likes to point out that when, in 2012, he signed an agreement with
David Cameron to hold a referendum, support for independence stood at
28 percent. Within two years, it soared so high that he almost won.
And that was before Brexit.
“We need to decide
how we influence our lives going forward,” Michael Russell, the
SNP’s Brexit minister told supporters, eager for news of the
party’s intentions. “There are clearly a range of options that
will meet or fail our tests. Independence is clearly one of those
options.”
One option not on
the table, he said, was simply “accepting” May’s vision for
Brexit.
Kelly Given, a
member of the SNP Youth movement, was even more blunt on Friday when
she asked party delegates to vote on a motion stating that “if no
viable solution to safeguard our membership as part of the U.K.
exists, Scotland should prepare for a second independence referendum
and seek to remain in Europe as an independent country.”
“Independence is
coming, conference, and I’d like to personally thank Theresa May
for her cooperation with that,” Given said. “She’s one of the
best things to happen to our campaign since it began.”
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