Mark
Rutte tries to keep a lid on ‘Nexit’
The
strong ties between the Dutch and the Brits are being tested by the
Brexit vote.
By NAOMI O'LEARY
10/19/16, 5:27 AM CET Updated 10/19/16, 9:57 AM CET
AMSTERDAM — As
Brexit negotiations approach there’s a distinct chill in the air
between Britain and the Netherlands, and it’s not just because
Theresa May can’t hope to replicate the bromance between her
predecessor David Cameron and Dutch leader Mark Rutte.
The U.K. may be the
Netherlands’ third-biggest export market, but the Dutch
center-right prime minister has compelling reasons for wanting
Britain to squirm as it leaves the EU. Like many European leaders,
he’s facing a strong Euroskeptic challenge in next March’s
election.
“He doesn’t have
the political space to make it too easy for the U.K.,” said Kees
Verhoeven of the liberal D66 party, who sits on the Dutch
parliament’s European affairs committee. “The only thing that’s
really important is: Don’t make the United Kingdom an argument for
populists to leave the EU.”
Rutte, the
49-year-old leader of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy
(VVD), has told parliament he’s training like a “boxer” for the
Brexit negotiations ahead. He’ll find it much easier to take a
swing at May than his old chum Cameron, with whom he was in the habit
of swapping text messages — “mostly about stupid stuff,” Rutte
confided to the BBC.
“The
only thing that’s really important is: Don’t make the United
Kingdom an argument for populists to leave the EU” —
Kees Verhoeven
Indeed, Cameron
trusted Rutte so much that the Dutchman stood in for him at an EU
summit last year. The Dutch, Brits, Danes and Finns often formed a
cluster of like-minded northern Europeans to act as a bulwark against
German and French influence, according to Adriaan Schout of the Dutch
think-tank Clingendael.
“Migration,
military defense cooperation, energy liberalization … there are
major areas where the Dutch will really miss the U.K.,” Schout
said.
The frostier new
tone was apparent when Cameron’s successor as Conservative prime
minister visited the Netherlands last week. She didn’t even issue a
press statement after her meeting with Rutte, in contrast to her
visits to Croatia and Denmark; after her talks in Copenhagen, May
spoke of a “mature, cooperative relationship” with Europe,
whereas Rutte’s tone was much more distant.
“It is evident
that we will also have shared interests in the future, but the fact
remains that very complex negotiations lie ahead,” Rutte said
following his meeting with May. He backed Paris and Berlin in saying
that Britain would not be able to remain in the single market while
restricting freedom of movement. “This is not a menu to choose
from,” he said.
Cautionary tale
Rather than fueling
demands for a copycat Dutch vote, the Brexit result has muffled
debate on the EU in the Netherlands as the country watches the
worrying events across the North Sea. EU membership has barely been
mentioned so far in the incipient Dutch election campaign, and Rutte
is keen to keep it that way. The plunge in sterling and political
ferment in Britain, where there was a wave of resignations on both
sides of the campaign following the vote, have created caution in the
Netherlands.
“After Brexit, the
‘Nexit’ discussion went down. It’s quite a paradox but it
happened,” said Verhoeven.
Socialist MP Harry
van Bommel, who also sits on the Dutch parliament’s European
affairs committee, attempted to grill Rutte for details following
May’s visit. “He completely kept us in the dark. We haven’t got
a clue,” van Bommel said. “The prime minister is not willing to
say anything because he says that might weaken the Dutch negotiating
position.”
“The main lesson
is: ‘Woah. This is a bit too much,'” said Jacques Monasch, a
euro-critical member of the Labour party, which forms part of Rutte’s
governing coalition. “That no party picks up the momentum of
Brexit, that a major partner wants to exit the European Union, I
think is a sign.”
‘Very unwise’
Even the openly
Euroskeptic parties, fresh from delivering a rebuke to the EU by
winning a referendum on a trade treaty with Ukraine earlier this
year, are exercising caution and have so far refrained from using
calls for a ‘Nexit’ as their rallying cry in the campaign.
Jan Roos, who helped
collect the required signatures to trigger the Ukraine referendum,
has entered politics at the head of a party whose flagship proposal
is a flat tax. Its EU policy is “less Brussels.”
His fellow
Euroskeptic Thierry Baudet announced last month that his Forum for
Democracy party would also contest the election, but it isn’t
demanding an in-out ballot on EU membership. Instead, it would like
to hold four separate votes on aspects of EU participation: the euro,
free movement, common foreign policy and primacy of EU law.
Geert Wilders, whose
Freedom Party is neck-and-neck with Rutte’s VVD in opinion polls,
did call for the Netherlands to hold its own referendum on EU
membership in the immediate aftermath of Britain’s vote. Recently,
however, Wilders has been promoting a different policy: for Dutch
citizens to be able to demand binding referendums four times a year.
Under Dutch law, referendums are only advisory and apply to new
treaties or legislation.
Support for the
Netherlands to leave the EU dropped in the weeks following Britain’s
vote, a poll by the website Peil.nl showed, but it was still at a
significant 40 percent of respondents. This means Rutte must tread
carefully to avoid exacerbating lingering dissatisfaction among
voters, said Monasch of the Labour party.
“I’m afraid the
political establishment is going to feel they can ride it out, wait
for the tide to change and then go with our plans for a more federal
Europe,” Monasch said. “That would be very, very unwise. As soon
as anybody in the Netherlands smells that undercurrent, there is
going to be trouble.”
Authors:
Naomi O'Leary
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