Scotland
eyes British exit
Scottish
National Party tries to clarify its post-Brexit strategy.
By PETER GEOGHEGAN
10/12/16, 5:30 AM CET
GLASGOW — The
annual Scottish National Party conference used to be a marginal
affair in British politics. With few observers save the local press,
battle-hardened activists would meet in a provincial Scottish town
hotel to debate local issues.
This year is
different.
On Thursday, under
the watchful eye of international journalists, thousands of SNP
delegates will gather at a towering conference center on the banks of
Glasgow’s River Clyde to debate two existential questions: the
meaning of Brexit for Scotland and the possibility of a second
independence referendum.
What happens in
Glasgow will do much to set the tone for the coming months — not
just in Scotland but in the rest of the U.K., too.
First Minister of
Scotland and SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon’s keynote speech on
Saturday is sure to be closely watched, as is the election of a new
deputy leader, a role that indicates the future direction of the
party. And a motion calling for the Scottish government to prepare a
second independence referendum — “if no viable solution to
safeguard our membership as part of the U.K. exists” — is
likely to fuel a lively debate on the floor.
Even within the
Scottish National Party, there are fault lines when it comes to
independence — and Brexit has laid them bare.
Sturgeon and her
Brexit minister, Michael Russell, have made it clear they want to
retain Scotland’s place in the EU. But others see opportunities in
the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union.
Veteran nationalist
Alex Neil, a former cabinet minister, has argued Brexit is a “golden
opportunity” for the Scottish government to assert control over
farming, fishing, employment law and other areas currently decided in
Brussels. “Neo-independence” will provide the “ideal platform”
for full independence in the 2020s, Neil has argued.
The decision on a
second referendum will come down to the SNP’s power couple: Nicola
Sturgeon and her husband, party chief executive Peter Murrell.
Meanwhile, former
Justice Minister Kenny MacAskill has criticized the “timidity” of
Sturgeon’s government, arguing that “the danger is that her
government end up simply managing, not leading, the political
agenda.”
But ultimately, the
decision on a second referendum will come down to the SNP’s power
couple: Sturgeon and her husband, party Chief Executive Peter
Murrell. The pair controls the central levers of power in the SNP and
few dissent from their leader.
Lately, however,
observers have noted signs of more openness within the SNP,
paradoxically brought about by Brexit. The conference will do much to
reveal how open Sturgeon really is to alternative views.
“Politics now is
very different to what it was in 2014,” says Andrew Tickell, a
lecturer of law and a columnist for the Times.
Toxic rhetoric
Two years ago,
Scottish voters rejected independence in a closely watched
referendum, prompting Alex Salmond, the Scottish first minister and
then-leader of the SNP, to step down.
In the weeks after,
independent-minded Scots joined the “yes” parties — the SNP,
the Scottish Green Party and the Scottish Socialist Party, and today
SNP membership is at an all-time high at 125,000.
But two years of
existential tumult has taken its toll. And earlier this year,
Scottish politicians looked set to return to bread-and-butter issues.
When the SNP won its third consecutive term in the devolved
government in Edinburgh in May, the manifesto promised that another
referendum would only be held if there were “significant and
material” changes to Scotland’s circumstances.
As May has made
clear her intention to pursue a so-called “hard Brexit,” the
Scottish leader has shown a more pugilistic side.
The Brexit vote in
June changed everything.
On the morning of
the result, Sturgeon declared that a second independence referendum
was “highly likely” given that a majority of Scots had voted to
stay within the European Union.
Aware the Scots were
restive, the new British prime minister, Theresa May, made Edinburgh
her first port of call in July, extolling the virtues of the “special
union” between England and Scotland.
At first, Sturgeon
appeared to temper talk of another referendum as polls showed little
increase in the appetite for independence. But in recent weeks, as
May has made clear her intention to pursue a so-called “hard
Brexit,” the Scottish leader has shown a more pugilistic side.
Sturgeon castigated
May on Twitter and has publicly condemned the U.K. government’s
“toxic rhetoric on immigration.” May, in turn, seemed to fire a
shot across the Scottish bow at the recent Conservative Party
conference in Birmingham, telling Tory delegates — to wild applause
— that she would “never allow divisive nationalists to undermine
the precious union,” pledging there would be no Scottish “opt
out” from Brexit.
In addition to
navigating Brexit and devising a strategy for independence, there is
the struggling economy and the global downturn of oil prices to
consider.
When the SNP
delegates meet this week, the prime minister’s bellicose words will
be ringing in their ears. Such language does little to mend
Anglo-Scottish relations and almost certainly weakens the union in
the long run. In the short-term, too, May has put Sturgeon in a bind:
Should Sturgeon call a referendum now and risk losing what might be
her one shot at independence? Or should she wait for a better
opportunity that might never appear?
“One of the
arguments for waiting is we still don’t know what Brexit means,”
says Tickell.
While some in the
party, like Tickell, favor a wait-and-see approach, many grassroots
activists are hoping the SNP leader will use her keynote speech on
Saturday to push independence — and fast, by calling a second
referendum.
“Now Nicola
Sturgeon has to call it,” says Suzanne McLaughlin, a former SNP
candidate and owner of the pro-independence “Yes Bar” in central
Glasgow. “You can sit forever and say ‘when will be the right
time?’ 2014 was a leap of faith and we almost got there. Now with
Brexit and the racist rhetoric, it would be more morally
reprehensible if we didn’t [hold another referendum].”
So far, the Scottish
first minister has kept her counsel.
Brexit clarity
Another question to
be settled this week is the appointment of SNP’s deputy leader, a
symbolically important role that’s been held by the SNP’s last
five leaders — including Sturgeon.
The four-way contest
is seen as something of a battle for the direction of the party.
Moray MP Angus
Robertson is widely considered the favorite to win the appointment.
The 47-year-old leader of the SNP group in the House of Commons —
where the nationalists hold 54 of Scotland’s 59 seats — is seen
as a standard-bearer of the nationalist establishment. (He reportedly
joined the party aged 15 after being handed a leaflet by Charlie
Reid, singer in pop group The Proclaimers).
One joker in the
pack, though, is the new mass membership of the SNP. Almost overnight
in the wake of the September 2014 defeat, the party quadrupled in
size and it has since continued to climb. The voting intentions of
the new members are hard to gauge but one favored candidate could be
MP Tommy Sheppard, who is more volubly in favor of party reform than
Robertson.
Sheppard, a former
assistant general secretary of Scottish Labour, who joined in 2014,
has promised greater distribution of power in what remains a very
hierarchical party. (Separately, a motion calling for the
strengthening of internal party discipline is on the conference
agenda).
Also in the running
for the deputy leadership is local councilor Chris McEleny and the
experienced Brussels hand, Alyn Smith. The Scottish MEP’s pitch has
focused on his insider knowledge of the European Union at a crucial
time for Edinburgh’s external relations
Whoever wins the
contest, Scotland’s leaders will have a lot on their plate. In
addition to navigating Brexit and devising a strategy for
independence, there is the struggling economy and the global downturn
of oil prices to consider.
“Scotland exports
more than 60 percent of its good to England. This fact cannot be
straightforwardly cauterized,” says Tickell. “Scotland facing a
hard Brexit makes another referendum harder. But, on the other hand,
it does clarify the issues.”
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