terça-feira, 1 de novembro de 2016


News of an FBI review of Hillary Clinton emails hasn't changed her poll numbers.


Welcome to The Day in Polls. As we approach Election Day, we’ll be keeping you up-to-date on the latest poll numbers and where the candidates stand.

Well, folks, we’ve got just more than a week to go until the presidential election, and any chance of a quiet weekend was shattered on Friday when news broke that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is reviewing emails that could be relevant to its inquiry into Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s handling of her emails when she was secretary of state. The newly discovered emails, it seems, were found during an unrelated investigation of disgraced former Representative Anthony Weiner, who allegedly sent sexually explicit texts to an underage girl. Weiner’s estranged wife, Huma Abedin, is a longtime aide to Clinton. On Sunday, it was reported that the FBI has secured a warrant to examine the emails.

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Got it? Let’s take a look at where the candidates stand as of Monday, which began with people digesting the "news" that more 600 million immigrants will arrive in America one week after the election. This dubious claim was put forward by the Republican nominee for president, Donald Trump, during a number of campaign stops over the weekend. Of course, it's not going to happen, so hang in there.

Over at The Upshot, the daily election forecast shows Trump has inched up by another percentage point. He now has a 10 percent chance of winning the election, compared to Clinton’s 90 percent chance. On Friday morning, Trump had a nine percent chance of winning, while a week ago Clinton had a 93 percent chance of coming out on top.

Both candidates had gained voter support by Monday, according to the Real Clear Politics average of state and national polls. Clinton still leads by 2.9 points in a two-way race, but Trump is closing in. He now has 44.8 percent of support compared to Clinton’s 47.7 percent. Since news of the newly discovered Clinton emails on Friday, Trump has steadily gained support in this average: On Friday, he had 42.5 percent of support, and that increased to 43.3 percent by Sunday.

The election forecast at FiveThirtyEight is rosier for Trump, but still predicts Clinton will be the winner of the November 8 election. Looking at polls only, Clinton has a 78.9 percent chance of winning the election, compared to Trump’s 21 percent. It’s a fairly significant change from this time last week, when Clinton had an 86.3 percent chance of winning the election, compared to Trump’s 13.7 percent.

Outlier of the day: Despite the mass hysteria that broke out on Friday following the email news, it hasn’t shifted Clinton's numbers in one poll. A new Morning Consult and POLITICO survey released on Monday morning shows that in a four-way race between Clinton, Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump gained three points and had 39 percent of support, to Clinton’s 42 percent. Those numbers are the same as a poll Morning Consult and POLITICO conducted before the review of Clinton’s emails was announced.

It’s not over ’til it’s over: Maybe we should forget the polls altogether? According to Allan J. Lichtman, a history professor at American University who has accurately predicted the past eight presidential outcomes since 1984, we’re heading for a Trump victory next week. Lichtman’s system is based on 13 true or false “key” statements. If six or more of these statements are true, then the incumbent party is favored to stay in power, and if six or more are false, then the opposing party is likely to win.

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