PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION POLLS FOR OCTOBER 31, 2016
News
of an FBI review of Hillary Clinton emails hasn't changed her poll
numbers.
BY LUCY WESTCOTT ON
10/31/16 AT 2:37 PM
Welcome to The Day
in Polls. As we approach Election Day, we’ll be keeping you
up-to-date on the latest poll numbers and where the candidates stand.
Well, folks, we’ve
got just more than a week to go until the presidential election, and
any chance of a quiet weekend was shattered on Friday when news broke
that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is reviewing emails
that could be relevant to its inquiry into Democratic presidential
candidate Hillary Clinton’s handling of her emails when she was
secretary of state. The newly discovered emails, it seems, were found
during an unrelated investigation of disgraced former Representative
Anthony Weiner, who allegedly sent sexually explicit texts to an
underage girl. Weiner’s estranged wife, Huma Abedin, is a longtime
aide to Clinton. On Sunday, it was reported that the FBI has secured
a warrant to examine the emails.
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Got it? Let’s take
a look at where the candidates stand as of Monday, which began with
people digesting the "news" that more 600 million
immigrants will arrive in America one week after the election. This
dubious claim was put forward by the Republican nominee for
president, Donald Trump, during a number of campaign stops over the
weekend. Of course, it's not going to happen, so hang in there.
Over at The Upshot,
the daily election forecast shows Trump has inched up by another
percentage point. He now has a 10 percent chance of winning the
election, compared to Clinton’s 90 percent chance. On Friday
morning, Trump had a nine percent chance of winning, while a week ago
Clinton had a 93 percent chance of coming out on top.
Both candidates had
gained voter support by Monday, according to the Real Clear Politics
average of state and national polls. Clinton still leads by 2.9
points in a two-way race, but Trump is closing in. He now has 44.8
percent of support compared to Clinton’s 47.7 percent. Since news
of the newly discovered Clinton emails on Friday, Trump has steadily
gained support in this average: On Friday, he had 42.5 percent of
support, and that increased to 43.3 percent by Sunday.
The election
forecast at FiveThirtyEight is rosier for Trump, but still predicts
Clinton will be the winner of the November 8 election. Looking at
polls only, Clinton has a 78.9 percent chance of winning the
election, compared to Trump’s 21 percent. It’s a fairly
significant change from this time last week, when Clinton had an 86.3
percent chance of winning the election, compared to Trump’s 13.7
percent.
Outlier of the day:
Despite the mass hysteria that broke out on Friday following the
email news, it hasn’t shifted Clinton's numbers in one poll. A new
Morning Consult and POLITICO survey released on Monday morning shows
that in a four-way race between Clinton, Trump, Libertarian candidate
Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump gained three
points and had 39 percent of support, to Clinton’s 42 percent.
Those numbers are the same as a poll Morning Consult and POLITICO
conducted before the review of Clinton’s emails was announced.
It’s not over ’til
it’s over: Maybe we should forget the polls altogether? According
to Allan J. Lichtman, a history professor at American University who
has accurately predicted the past eight presidential outcomes since
1984, we’re heading for a Trump victory next week. Lichtman’s
system is based on 13 true or false “key” statements. If six or
more of these statements are true, then the incumbent party is
favored to stay in power, and if six or more are false, then the
opposing party is likely to win.
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