OPINION
Migration:
We ain’t seen nothing yet
Today’s
crisis pales in comparison to what’s to come. Global warming
threatens to uproot millions more.
By BRIAN
WALSH 11/14/16, 5:40 PM CET Updated 11/14/16, 5:43 PM CET
The uncoordinated
and inadequate management of migration flows — 1.3 million refugees
and migrants arrived in Europe last year alone — has been rightly
characterized as a governance and humanitarian disaster. The main
obstacle is a lack of political will and collective action, so the
latest U.N. leaders’ summit on the global refugee crisis was
promising for committing to greater funding and closer cooperation to
restore order. But if we cast our gaze forward, past the immediate
politics of the crisis, there is far greater trouble ahead.
A perfect storm of
climate change, food scarcity and governance failures is gathering,
and could create migration flows on a scale that dwarfs what we are
facing today. To ward off a catastrophe on a global scale, national
leaders will have to pursue far more ambitious measures to combat
climate change and bolster African agricultural infrastructures
specifically.
Despite significant
progress in recent decades, West Africa remains one of the least
food-secure regions in the world. The number of undernourished West
Africans — 33 million — has not declined since 2000. Looking
forward, it is unlikely that current programs to lift people out of
subsistence living will be enough to meet the region’s needs, given
its projected increase in population.
Most
climate models predict that temperatures throughout Africa will rise
faster than the global average during the remainder of the 21st
century.
As Europe, China and
India prepare for demographic decline, West Africa is entering its
most explosive phase of population growth. According to new U.N.
projections, the total population of the region will more than
quadruple by the end of the century, from today’s 360 million to
some 1.6 billion.
Nigeria’s
population is predicted to swell to 750 million inhabitants by 2100,
which would make it the third largest country by population behind
India and China. While this growth will, of course, create
opportunities for economic development, the region’s farming
infrastructure is not prepared to meet the growing demand.
Agricultural intensification — an engine of both food security and
economic growth — is already not keeping pace. The consequences
could be catastrophic.
Consider cereals and
starchy roots, which together comprise two-thirds of West African
diets: Since 2000, the total population of West Africa has increased
by 54 percent, while average cereals yields have increased by only 25
percent, and starchy root yields have declined modestly. Imports of
these staple crops account for less than 10 percent of supply, making
regional food security highly dependent on domestic output. A rapid
and thorough transition from subsistence to modern agriculture is
critical to expanding the region’s food supply.
Climate change
threatens to further destabilize the situation. Most climate models
predict that temperatures throughout Africa will rise faster than the
global average during the remainder of the 21st century.
Throughout the
tropics and especially in tropical West Africa, this will lead to new
climate regimes as early as the late 2030s — 10 to 20 years sooner
than the global average — as a result of low natural climate
variability in the region.
Historically,
predictable growing conditions have informed farmers’ almanacs,
helping subsistence farmers to maximize yields. Small shifts carry
outsized effects: not just higher temperatures but also more frequent
and severe floods and droughts.
Disruption of West
African climate patterns could devastate the region’s food security
and prospects for economic growth. Lacking the technology and
infrastructure to anticipate and adapt for climate change, West
African producers could face widespread, catastrophic crop failure
even as demand soars. Even localized disruptions to supplies will
cause prices to rise in a region where food already accounts for
45-85 percent of the expenditures of its poorest citizens.
West
Africa will bear the brunt of the effects of global warming despite
being responsible for a tiny fraction of global greenhouse gas
emissions.
Without adequate
preparation and investment, climate change will be disastrous for
West Africa. Famine and mass migration on a scale that surpasses
current flows to Europe are likely. If undernourishment rates simply
hold steady, by 2100 there will be 160 million hungry and
increasingly desperate West Africans, a figure equal to the combined
present populations of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan,
Syria and Yemen.
Climate change is
already reshaping the West African climate, and growing economic
losses may already be unavoidable. The worst effects could, however,
be forestalled with timely investments in vulnerable economies and
societies. In particular, agricultural intensification and
modernization can mitigate crop losses and facilitate nimble,
coordinated responses to shifting farming conditions.
West Africa will
bear the brunt of the effects of global warming despite being
responsible for a tiny fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions.
We must reinforce the region’s climatic resilience in order to
mitigate disaster and avoid replicating the desperation and chaos of
the recent refugee crisis on an unimaginably larger scale.
Brian Walsh is a
research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria.
Authors:
Brian Walsh
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário