Europe’s
leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit
Fears
grow about impact of populist surge as Nigel Farage predicts Marine
Le Pen could win French presidential election
Toby Helm Observer
political editor
Saturday 19 November
2016 22.03 GMT
European leaders
have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely
to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which
could lead to the break-up of the European Union.
The hardening line
in EU capitals comes as Nigel Farage warns European leaders that
Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National, could deliver a
political sensation bigger than Brexit and win France’s
presidential election next spring – a result that would mean it was
“game over” for 60 years of EU integration.
According to senior
officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing
Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential
danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other
countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.
One top EU diplomat
told the Observer: “If you British are not prepared to compromise
on free movement, the only way to deal with Brexit is hard Brexit.
Otherwise we would be seen to be giving in to a country that is
leaving. That would be fatal.”
Nigel Farage
predicted Brexit and Trump’s presidential victory. Photograph:
Lauren Hurley/PA
The latest
intervention by Farage will only serve to fuel fears in Europe that
anti-EU movements have acquired a dangerous momentum in countries
such as France and the Netherlands, following the precedent set by
the Brexit vote. Ukip’s interim leader, who predicted both the vote
for Brexit and Donald Trump’s US victory, told the Observer that
while Le Pen was still more likely to be runner-up to an
establishment candidate next May, she now had to be taken seriously
as a potential head of state.
“She will clearly
win through to the second round. And after what has happened
elsewhere, only a fool would say she would have no chance of winning
overall. France is a deeply, deeply unhappy country. If she were to
win, it would be game over for the EU.”
Le Pen has made
clear she wants to take France out of the euro and the EU. The
prospective hardline approach has been agreed by the 27 member states
as a bloc. Acting in concert, the remaining EU states will refuse to
grant the UK access to the single market unless London agrees to sign
up to its rules, including free movement of people, capital, services
and labour.
Norbert Röttgen,
chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the German Bundestag,
told the Observer that he wanted to help the UK but, if there were no
willingness to accept EU rules, there was no hope. “I am really
ready to come to a result but if [the British position is] no, no,
no, then even I would have to say that there is no common ground.”
The vice-president
of the centre-right European People’s party, German MEP David
McAllister, added: “You can’t have 100% control over internal
migration, say no to European Court of Justice rulings, and that you
won’t pay anything [into the budget]. This just won’t work.
“The British are
testing us – we all know that. They are testing how united Europe
is. So what is important is that Europe stays together. No bilateral
negotiations with the British. No cherry-picking. We are doing this
as a bloc.”
Trump’s
sensational victory led some members of the French establishment, and
politicians in Berlin and Brussels, to worry that Le Pen could
benefit from a similar wave of popular discontent and pose a real
threat. Former French prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin said reason
no longer prevailed in France and that Le Pen “can win”.
Norbert Röttgen
has said he wants to help the UK but that it must accept EU rules.
Photograph: Bob Strong/Reuters
Farage, who has been
heavily critical of the Front National as a party, but admires Le Pen
personally, said he had not had time to think about whether he would
support her campaign for the Elysée. “It has been too busy,” he
said. “What I would say is that I have not had anything good to say
about the National Front but equally not anything bad to say about
Marine Le Pen. I think the important thing for her is to run as much
as possible as an individual, as her own person.”
French MEP Constance
Le Grip said she did not believe Le Pen could win, but admitted there
was a danger of bolstering support for her if the UK were given an
exit deal that was too favourable.
“If you start to
reshape the whole project to be some sort of Europe à la carte it is
the beginning of the end, apart from the fact that Le Pen will then
claim victory, Wilders in the Netherlands, and so on. More opt-outs
for the UK would be absolutely incoherent and absurd. ”
On 29 October, less
than two weeks before Trump seized the White House, Farage rejected
prevailing opinion and forecast his victory against Hillary Clinton.
“I am going to predicthere and now that Trump is going to win.”
On 1 June – 22 days before the Brexit vote – he said: “I
believe we will
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