The
Fillon moment
By Alex Barker
November 28, 2016
Financial Times
Brussels briefing
French politics is
alive with energy. François Fillon has won handsomely and Alain
Juppé has bowed-out. The French centre-right has its candidate for
president, all while the French centre-left drifts into irrelevance.
Serving prime minister Manuel Valls is on manoeuvres - and on the
verge of being sacked by president François Hollande, who is still
busy plotting a comeback from his 4 per cent poll low. Emmanuel
Macron, meanwhile, marches on. And amid the hullabaloo, sitting
rather quietly on the sidelines is Marine Le Pen of the National
Front. Only 145 days to go.
With Mr Mr Fillon’s
victory emerges the clear favourite to be the next French president.
On his shoulders rests a heavy responsibility. He was the unexpected
break-out winner from the primaries, embodying a rightward shift
among Republican party voters, hungry for a return to traditional
social policy laced with a splash of free market spirit. If as
expected he reaches a second round with Ms Le Pen, his job is to see
off the potential for an upset that would not only rock France, but
the Europe’s 60 year project of integration.
During the final
stages of their primary race, Mr Juppé failed to wound Mr Fillon
with attacks on the “brutality” of his liberal economic platform,
plans to slash spending and soft-spot for Russia. But that was with
Republican primary voters. Ms Le Pen sees Mr Fillon as a formidable
and unexpected rival, fighting closer to her turf than she wanted,
with appeal among natural conservative voters who she needs to
convert. She will need to pivot. She won’t be repeating criticisms
of Mr Fillon’s close ties to Vladimir Putin, the Russian president.
But we will hear a lot more about the dangers of his radical economic
policy, his threat to work rights and the welfare state. The economy
will be the battlefield. How those arguments fare with left-leaning
voters could be decisive for Europe.
Email:
alex.barker@ft.com Twitter: @alexebarker
Fillon's
EU vision: France leading a 'Europe of nations'
By ERIC MAURICE
BRUSSELS, TODAY,
08:12
Francois Fillon, who
was chosen as the centre-right candidate for the French presidential
election next year, wants a "sovereign France in a Europe
respectful of nations."
"We have all
the assets to become a nation that is sovereign, modern and leading
in Europe," he said on Sunday evening (27 November) after
winning the nomination of his Republicans party.
Fillon, a 61-year
old former prime minister, won the second round of the party's
primary election with 66.5 percent against Alain Juppe, another
former PM.
While waiting for
the Socialist candidate to be chosen in a primary election in
January, he is now one of the favourites to win the presidency in
May, along with far-right leader Marine Le Pen and a newcomer,
38-year old former economy minister Emmanuel Macron.
Speaking after his
victory, Fillon said that after a "pathetic" term by
current president Francois Hollande, "France wants the truth and
it wants action".
If he is elected
next year, he said he would defend "French values" and that
"France "will go far because nothing stops a people that
stands up for its future."
"Fillon is not
considered a great European," Vivien Pertusot, who heads the
Brussels office for French think tank IFRI, told EUobserver.
"Although he is
not for less Europe, Fillon doesn't support the idea of more
integration and is in favour of an intergovernmental EU," as
opposed to an EU led by its institutions, Pertusot said.
"Let's put
aside the dream of a federal Europe," Fillon himself wrote in Le
Monde, a French newspaper, last week.
"It is urgent
to re-establish a more political functioning, so Europe can focus its
action on well defined strategic priorities," he said, adding
that the EU didn't need a "relaunch" or a new treaty.
He said his three EU
priorities would be security, the euro, and investment.
He wants tighter
control of EU external border and a stronger common defence. He
proposes to establish a permanent secretariat for the eurozone, with
regular summits of eurozone leaders. He calls for "big,
mobilising projects" in research and innovation, on the model of
Airbus, a European aviation firm, or Ariane, a European satellite
project.
While the call for
more investment is coherent with the rest of his programme, the
IFRI’s Pertusot said, the eurozone "directorate" is more
in line with the views of Nicolas Sarkozy when he was president, with
Fillon alongside him as prime minister.
Fillon also favours
a more protectionist trade policy and has called for an end to EU-US
free-trade talks.
Counterbalancing
Germany
His views for a more
assertive France could put Fillon at odds with Germany and other EU
countries.
"He often says
that he wants that France again become the preeminent European power
and to take back control of its destiny," Pertusot said. "That
means to counterbalance Germany's power and it will not be taken as a
good sign in Berlin."
One of the most
controversial issues if Fillon becomes president could be his
position on Russia.
In his campaign, he
has called to "refuse EU decisions that go against France's
economic interests, such as sanctions against Russia which seriously
harm our companies." In April, he was among MPs who voted for a
resolution to lift the sanctions.
"That would put
Germany and central and eastern Europe against him," Pertusot
said.
Fillon said last
week on Twitter that ”Russia is the largest country in the world
and we continue to push it towards Asia, whereas it is not a threat
at all”.
He said that the
current French policy towards Russia, which is also the EU policy,
was "absurd".
He said that he did
not "accept" Russia's annexation of Crimea but that Russia
was an "indispensible ally" against the Islamic State
jihadist group in Syria.
International issue
Fillon's views on
the EU, on the other hand, could help him in the upcoming
presidential campaign.
So far, National
Front leader Marine Le Pen is leading in opinion polls with an
anti-migrant, anti-globalisation and anti-EU platform.
"If she makes
Europe her main campaign theme, it is not sure that she can win new
votes, especially against Fillon," who could not be portrayed as
part of a federalist elite, Pertusot said.
While the EU was
barely mentioned during the Republicans’ primary election, it
remains to be seen whether it will be a central issue ahead of the
presidential vote.
"An election
campaign is seldom the time when we speak about international
issues," Pertusot said. "And in France, the EU is still
considered as an international issue."
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