Schulz Heads to
Berlin
The
Man Who Could Shake Up German Politics
European
Parliament President Martin Schulz announced this week that he is
moving to Berlin to assume a role on the national political stage.
Many believe he would make a strong contender for chancellor for the
center-left Social Democrats. But one man stands in his way -- a
friend.
By Markus
Feldenkirchen and Horand Knaup
November 25, 2016
06:11 PM
As Martin Schulz
stepped up to the microphone to announce his departure from Brussels
on Thursday, he looked strong and determined. Inside, though, as
quickly became apparent, melancholy was the dominant emotion. He
seemed short of breath as he spoke, as though taking his leave was a
strenuous undertaking. Then, he took a deep breath and said: "It
was not an easy decision."
Though there are
many sentences uttered in the world of politics that are staged or
filled with ulterior motives, this one smacks of honesty. As corny as
it may sound, Schulz's devotion to Europe is heartfelt -- even if it
may have looked in recent weeks, as he fought to save his job as
president of the European Parliament, that his primary concern was
his own posting.
Schulz grew up in
the border area between Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands and has
relatives in all three countries. As a child, he listened to stories
told by his grandfather about how he had to fight in World War I
against his cousins in Belgium and the Netherlands. As he announced
his move to Berlin, he also hailed European unification as being
civilization's greatest achievement over the past century. There is
hardly any other German politician who has conducted politics at the
European level as passionately as Schulz has over the past 22 years.
The hour of
departure could also mark a fresh start. For now, however, Schulz's
political future is uncertain. When he took the post as president of
the European Parliament, part of the deal was that he would step down
before the end of his term. A debate has been underway in Brussels
over whether to allow him to stay in office, but it is one he
believes he no longer has any realistic chance of winning. So he felt
he needed to announce his departure at a point when it still appeared
to be at least partly voluntary. As he made his Thursday
announcement, though, he wasn't at all sure what his political future
would hold.
Room at the Top?
In recent weeks,
Schulz's name has been suggested for a number of top posts within his
center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). It has been suggested he
could potentially become the head of the party, its chancellor
candidate or perhaps even foreign minister once Frank-Walter
Steinmeier, likewise a senior SPD member, leaves the post to become
German president. The only way he could land one of these posts,
though, is through his years-long friend Sigmar Gabriel, who heads
the SPD and serves as Germany's economics minister. But Gabriel has
so far been vague, which raises questions about just how reliable
that friendship still is.
The only thing
that's certain is that Schulz has been guaranteed a position as the
party's leading candidate in federal parliamentary elections next
year for the state of North-Rhine Westphalia, which virtually assures
him a seat in the Bundestag. And that move will bring one of
Germany's most spirited and engaged politicians from Brussels to
Berlin -- but one who remains largely unknown to many in his home
country.
For a man who was a
serious alcoholic at the age of 24 and was close to committing
suicide, Schulz has come a very long way. During the intensive
therapy he underwent after his breakdown, he learned that one of his
most dangerous weaknesses was that of setting goals that were too
high -- and that he tends toward an overestimation of his own
abilities.
In his youth, Schulz
played on the football team in his hometown of Würselen, a suburb of
Aachen. For years, he dreamed of one day becoming a professional
player. Schulz was good at the sport, but not amazing and a serious
knee injury abruptly brought that dream to an end. Looking back, he
would later admit he had been overconfident about his pro-football
dreams and that the goal hadn't been realistic. That's one of the
reasons he descended into alcohol. Over the years, though, Schulz
developed a pretty good feel for what he can achieve. He constantly
questions himself, even moreso recently given the scope of the
potential new tasks that may be on the horizon.
Highly Qualified
He has no doubts he
could tackle the foreign minister job. If he becomes Steinmeier's
successor, he would become one of the most qualified and experienced
German politicians ever to take the job. In addition to having a
solid understanding of global affairs, Schulz also knows many
important institutional leaders and elected officials around the
world. When it comes to European politics, he is perhaps even better
networked than Chancellor Angela Merkel. "When you've been a
part of Europe as long as I have, then you know everybody," he
once said.
As president of
European Parliament, Schulz proved extremely adept at delicate
diplomatic missions, such as his visit with Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan in September following last summer's coup attempt and
his visit with Iranian President Hassan Rohani in November 2015 to
"intensify dialogue" between the EU and Iran a few months
after the signing of the nuclear deal. Schulz is fluent in five
foreign languages. His advisors believe the area that holds the
greatest risk for Schulz is his tendency toward overly direct and at
times flippant remarks. One has to know him extremely well not to get
offended when he uses expressions like, "egg head,"
"sleepyhead" or "dumbass."
Over the summer,
Schulz only tentatively addressed the question as to whether he might
enter the ring as the SPD's chancellor candidate. The only reason
those rumors even arose is that Gabriel's own stalling opened up room
for speculation that he might not choose to run this time. Schulz
began asking himself critical questions, knowing that if he wasn't
absolutely devoted to the campaign, voters would notice. By the end
of this process, he had decided that he would in fact run if Gabriel
asked him to do so. Weeks have since passed and now it appears that
his willingness to run has transformed into an active desire.
An Attractive
Candidate
Paradoxically, the
fact that many Germans are unfamiliar with him could actually make
him an attractive candidate. After 11 years at the country's helm,
Germans have become extremely familiar with Chancellor Merkel. Voters
and journalists alike also appear to have passed judgment on Gabriel,
and it is not a positive one. It may sound unfair, but it is
unrealistic to think that voters would be willing to take a fresh
look at Gabriel. With Schulz, on the other hand, very few Germans
have actually developed a full opinion about the politician. At the
very least, there would be room for surprise in a Schulz candidacy.
The actual role
Schulz will assume when he comes to Berlin is now dependent on a man
who Schulz staunchly refers to as a friend. Now, though, their
respective ambitions are standing in each other's way and casting a
shadow over their friendship. Over the summer, they agreed that one
of the pair had to become the candidate, an oath taken by two lone
wolves in their party who both rose out of modest upbringings. They
even identified the potential areas of concern for a Gabriel
candidacy and for a Schulz candidacy.
But it was followed
by a tussle over the CETA negotiations, the free trade agreement
between the EU and Canada. Schulz pushed hard for CETA and met with
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Ottawa, securing additional
concessions and talks with him. He arranged for a delegation of SPD
politicians to travel to Canada to negotiate a further concession in
advance of a delicate party convention. But Gabriel surprised
everyone by cancelling the trip at the last minute. The move
infuriated Schulz. "I'm not doing anything more on Canada and
CETA," he said at the time. Ultimately, he did continue fighting
and CETA was approved in the end, but the tensions between Schulz and
Gabriel were mounting.
Unwanted Rivalry
Even though Gabriel
celebrated CETA and other political successes, new polls weighed
heavily on him emotionally -- mostly measures of his political
popularity showing that he would stand virtually no chance against
Merkel in a run for the Chancellery. At the same time, his friend
Martin Schulz saw his own popularity ratings rise. These figures
changed something in the relationship between the two. They boosted
Schulz's conviction that he would be the better candidate, but they
also instilled a sense of distrust in Gabriel.
Party chair Gabriel
also registered the fact that Schulz was becoming less willing to
talk of a run for the Chancellery without becoming the SPD's new
leader at the same time. If Gabriel had thought he could allow Schulz
to become the SPD's chancellor candidate while retaining the party
chair, he was mistaken. By this point, the unwanted rivalry between
the two had developed an existential element. In early October,
SPIEGEL reported that the mood in the party was turning against
Gabriel and that Schulz was gaining supporters. Schulz took note of
the article with satisfaction, but it wasn't as well received by
Gabriel.
About six weeks ago,
cracks in the friendship also became visible to the public. For two
days, Schulz toured through Berlin, rushing from one public
appearance. He accepted an award and then attended a book launch
party -- of the first biography to be written about him.
Gabriel wasn't
pleased by Schulz's self-promotion. He began calling Schulz less
frequently and became more suspicious and irritable. "He's
waging a campaign against me," he confided to one of his
advisors. Schulz also sensed things had changed. "He doesn't
want me in Berlin," he complained to people close to him.
The Split
The tensions
continued even after Steinmeier was declared the candidate to become
Germany's president, a largely symbolic role, in mid-November. On
that Monday morning, Gabriel had appeared euphoric at a meeting of
the party's national executive. Schulz also should have been in a
good mood -- after all, the Foreign Ministry post, a job that had
long been appealing to him, had opened up. But Schulz wasn't in
positive spirits. Later it emerged why.
Gabriel had been
giving serious consideration not only to running for chancellor, but
also shifting from the Economics to the Foreign Ministry -- his logic
being that he might be able to bolster his own popularity ratings in
the more high-profile role of foreign minister. If he were to do
that, nothing would be left for Schulz.
The two then made
another attempt to restore the mutual trust in their relationship.
The next day, Schulz again flew from Brussels to Berlin, where he and
Gabriel wanted to meet at a hotel for a face-to-face. The two did
speak, but the clarity Schulz had hoped to receive on the foreign
minister and chancellor issues didn't materialize. And it apparently
still hasn't.
On Monday, during
another meeting of the national executive, Gabriel said there was no
need to rush. He also once again compelled the party executive as
well as the SPD's parliamentary group to stick with his schedule,
which called for the nomination of the party's chancellor candidate
only at the end of January. The new foreign minister, an office that
is held by the SPD as part of its government coalition agreement with
Chancellor Merkel's conservatives, would also not be named until
then.
Gabriel Likely to
Run
Most SPD leaders now
assume that Gabriel will run against Merkel. After months of
procrastinating, few believe he would be irresponsible enough to bow
out at the last minute. If he hadn't intended to run himself, why
would he have kept Schulz at bay for so long? And wouldn't his
announcement this week that his wife is expecting a second child have
provided him the perfect opportunity to decline a candidacy if that
is what he intended?
Gabriel appears to
be occupied at the moment with the question of which position would
be a better one from which to challenge Merkel. As vice chancellor
and economics minister, his current role? As SPD floor leader, so
that he can be freed of the cabinet discipline that would prevent him
from attacking Merkel more openly on the campaign trail? Or as
Steinmeier's successor as foreign minister? The hope is that the
office would give Gabriel a certain amount of gravitas and dignity.
It's common in Germany for foreign ministers to see a spike in their
popularity ratings. The only hitch is that Gabriel hasn't yet
displayed a whole lot of talent when it comes to diplomacy. During
the trips he has taken abroad so far, he's shown more of a knack for
generating unwanted headlines.
An Affront
From Martin Schulz's
perspective, it would be an affront if Gabriel were to become foreign
minister. It would also certainly spell the end of a friendship that
was already on shaky ground.
Some sources in the
SPD say that Schulz should have been more vocal in his pursuit of the
nomination. But Schulz wasn't, even though he had ample reason to
assume he could have won out over Gabriel. It appears that friendship
and loyalty kept him from doing so. These days, however, he is likely
to be asking himself whether this friendship still even exists.
And if it doesn't?
Would Schulz then have every reason to challenge Gabriel and to force
a survey of party members? After all, it was Gabriel himself who
suggested in a SPIEGEL interview in May that party members should be
allowed to vote on who they wanted as their chancellor candidate.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário