Austria’s
presidential Groundhog Day
The
result of Sunday’s election do-over could destabilize Europe’s
political landscape.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 11/28/16, 5:36 AM CET Updated 11/28/16, 6:06 AM CET
VIENNA — By this
time next week, Austria will either stand as an Alpine bulwark
against the anti-establishment tide or have fallen, the latest domino
in populism’s march across the Continent.
On Sunday, Austrians
return to the polls to elect a new president, choosing between the
liberal Alexander Van der Bellen, a former Green party leader, and
Norbert Hofer, the candidate of the far-right Freedom Party.
If this all sounds
vaguely familiar, an electoral Groundhog Day, that’s because it is.
The upcoming election is a redo of the presidential election in May.
Van der Bellen won that poll by a hair’s breadth, but the Freedom
Party, citing technical irregularities, demanded a new election. The
country’s highest court, in a controversial ruling, agreed,
prompting the do-over.
To add insult to
injury, the new election had to be delayed by a month after officials
discovered that the adhesive on some postal ballots was defective.
Many Austrians are
fed up with the process, which they worry has made them the laughing
stock of the EU.
Now, as in the
spring, the two candidates are neck-and-neck in the polls. Even the
issues are the same, with refugees, trade and the EU all looming
large.
The biggest
similarity? No one has a clue who’ll win.
What is clear is
that the result will be felt far beyond Austria’s borders. In the
coming months, voters in the Netherlands, France and Germany also go
to the polls, making the Austrian election the first major test of
voter appetite for populist prescriptions at a national level in this
election season.
With Italians set to
vote on Sunday as well — in the referendum on Prime Minister Matteo
Renzi’s constitutional reform — Europe’s already turbulent
political landscape could face further destabilizing just in time for
Christmas.
“It’s worth
remembering that we face a fundamental question over the country’s
direction” — Alexander Van der Bellen
Though the Austrian
and Italian polls may bear few similarities on paper, citizens of the
two countries are essentially deciding on the same question: Do we
trust the political status quo? Recent election and referendum
results in Europe, whether regional polls in Germany or the U.K.’s
Brexit vote, suggest there’s a good chance the answer is ‘No.’
If Austrians heed
that call for change, it would mean more than electing Europe’s
first far-right head of state since the war. Though Austria’s
presidency has traditionally been a ceremonial role, the office
carries deep symbolic character.
Freedom Party’s
waltz
A Hofer victory
would be seen by many as a popular disavowal of the ruling political
class — a Social Democrat-led grand coalition — and could trigger
new parliamentary elections in the coming months. The Freedom Party
would be the likely winner.
As infighting in the
grand coalition has sapped support for both the center-left and
center-right parties, the Freedom Party has surged ahead. It
currently leads national polls with about 35 percent, compared to
just 27 percent for its nearest rival, the governing Social
Democrats.
If any Western
European country is going to put the populist Right in power, it’s
likely going to be Austria. Though electing Hofer might risk turning
the country into a pariah in the region, Austrians have been there
before.
In 1986, the country
elected Kurt Waldheim president despite an international outcry over
his wartime record. In 1999, voters flocked to the Freedom Party in
national elections, ignoring grave warnings from the European Union
and Austria’s neighbors.
Critics worry that
normalizing the populists will only legitimize their politics.
Then under the
leadership of Jörg Haider, the Freedom Party finished second and
joined a coalition led by the center-right People’s Party. The
result prompted Austria’s EU partners to impose diplomatic
sanctions on Vienna.
In a sign of how
much Europe’s politics has changed in the past 15 years, Austria
has so far faced no such threats this time around. That’s because
far-right politicians like Hofer are no longer an aberration, but a
fact of life across the Continent’s political landscape.
Testing ground for
Social Democrats
That’s not to say
Europe’s establishment parties are sanguine about the threat, but
they’ve been forced to find new strategies for confronting it. In
that regard, Austria has come to serve the function of a case study,
a testing ground.
When German vice
chancellor and SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel visits Vienna this week to
meet Chancellor Christian Kern and other European Social Democrats,
for example, one of the main topics of discussion will be how to deal
with the far Right.
The meeting comes
just days after Kern changed tack in his approach with the Freedom
Party, dropping his party’s traditionally belligerent stance.
During a live debate with Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian
Strache on Austrian radio last week, Kern said that despite their
differences, he believed that Strache also “wants to take our
country forward.”
The friendly debate
left many in the country wondering if Kern, who has only been
chancellor since May, was hinting the Social Democrats might be open
to a coalition with the Freedom Party, something the center Left had
ruled out in the past at the national level.
Or was it merely a
tactical move, aimed at showing the Social Democrats’ openness to
Freedom Party voters?
Whatever the case,
the exchange illustrated how the far Right is forcing the
establishment parties to rethink their playbook.
Critics worry that
the reappraisal could come at the expense of core values, whether
over asylum laws or in regard to the EU. Normalizing the populists,
they warn, will only legitimize their politics.
As election day
approaches, Van der Bellen has tried hard to remind voters, many of
whom have been frustrated by the nearly year-long campaign, of what’s
at stake.
“It’s worth
remembering that we face a fundamental question over the country’s
direction,” he said in a recent television interview.
Authors:
Matthew Karnitschnig
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário