First
Brexit then Trump. Is Italy next for the west’s populist wave?
Italians
will soon vote in a referendum on constitutional reforms which could
have dramatic results for all of Europe
Julian
Coman
Sunday
27 November 2016 07.00 GMT
In the historic
centre of Ferrara, an imposing statue of Girolamo Savonarola
confronts passersby. Savonarola, a local boy, was a 15th-century
preacher of fire and brimstone, making his name denouncing secular
vanity, pagan idols and the corruption of clerical elites. The
monument hails him as “the scourge of corrupt and slavish times,
full of vice and tyrants”.
Savonarola was
hanged for his troubles in 1498, but his brooding, disruptive
presence in modern Ferrara seemed apt this month as the city, in
northern Italy, hosted a group of modern iconoclasts with their own
mission to “clean up” the country.
On a bitterly cold
evening, MPs and senators representing the Five Star Movement (M5S),
launched by Beppe Grillo, the comedian-turned-political rabble
rouser, implored a packed piazza to use a referendum on the
constitution on Sunday 4 December to send the prime minister, Matteo
Renzi, packing.
Renzi, the
telegenic, youthful leader of the centre-left Democratic party (PD),
has placed his authority behind proposals to limit the powers of the
senate, Italy’s second chamber. His plan involves cutting the
number of senators from 315 to 100, all of whom would be appointed –
rather than elected, as at present – and restricting their power to
influence legislation.
Since 1948 the
Italian constitution has preserved a perfect balance of powers
between the two houses of parliament, frequently leading to
legislative gridlock in Rome. Renzi claims that slimming down the
role of the senate will, along with other reforms to strengthen
executive power, finally free governments to govern. Crucially, he
has indicated he will step down if the vote goes against him.
In other eras, a dry
and technical debate might have preoccupied a few constitutional
cognoscenti. But these are not ordinary times in western democracies.
In Ferrara’s Piazza Trento e Trieste, Alessandro Di Battista, a
rising star of Grillo’s movement, issued a populist call to arms.
Renzi’s referendum, he told the crowd, was just the latest gambit
by a political class determined to insulate itself from the people it
should serve.
“This unelected
senate will be constituted by the arselickers of the various
parties”, said Di Battista, “and by those who are in trouble with
the courts and need parliamentary immunity. They’re sealing the
system off so it can’t be changed in the future.”
Such a devious
manoeuvre should, he said, come as no surprise: “There are two
Italys: on the one side the very wealthy few who look after
themselves, and on the other the masses who live every day with
problems of transport and public health.” As his audience launched
into a favourite Five Star chant, “A casa! A casa!” (“Send them
home”), Di Battista referenced the political earthquake that was in
everyone’s mind.
“The election of
Donald Trump is the American people’s business,” he said. “But
what that election does show is that so many citizens are simply not
taking the establishment’s bait any more.”
Eventually it was
time for the Five Star “I say No’’ tour and its participants to
move on to the next event in nearby Bologna. As one helper turned to
collect technical equipment from the stage, the slogan on the back of
his blue Vote No sweatshirt became visible. For veterans of Brexit
and observers of the election of president-elect Trump, it carried an
eerily familiar ring: “Sovereignty belongs to the people.”
Italy’s referendum
was not meant to pan out this way. The last polls permitted before
the vote give the No campaign a five-point lead. Yet to paraphrase
David Cameron’s famous jibe at Tony Blair, Renzi was the future
once. Last April, when both the lower and upper houses of parliament
comfortably approved the prime minister’s constitutional package,
the votes were celebrated as a historic breakthrough. A pragmatic
non-tribal figure, Renzi, 41, was seen as the young technocratic
leader who was finally reforming baroque structures of governance and
rendering them fit for purpose. The markets, the European commission
and Confindustria, the Italian equivalent of the CBI, warmly
applauded the idea of a streamlined parliament with a more powerful
executive. But, fatefully, Renzi decided he also wanted the backing
of the people and called a referendum to rubber-stamp the changes.
His vow to stand down if the reforms were rejected was an indication
of his confidence.
That already feels
like a different era. The winds of change in western democracies have
since whipped up into a storm and, as the Brexit vote and the
election of Trump demonstrated, voters have stopped giving the
answers their politicians expect.
At an August rally
in the coastal town of Giulianova, Grillo declared with
characteristic asperity: “Today saying no is the most beautiful and
glorious form of politics … whoever doesn’t understand that can
go screw themselves.”
The Five Star leader
has since jubilantly drawn connections between American “Trumpismo”
and the grassroots populism of his own movement, which stands at 30%
in the polls, level pegging with Renzi’s party. “This is mad
stuff,” Grillo wrote on his blog. “It’s an apocalypse for the
big papers, the intellectuals, the journalists. This is a huge
general ‘Fuck off’.”
On the hard right,
Matteo Salvini, leader of the anti-migrant Lega Nord, is also surfing
the wave, describing Trump’s triumph as a strike against
globalisation: “It’s the revenge of the people, of courage, of
pride, of the desire for work and security; and it’s one in the eye
for the bankers, the speculators and the journalists.”
Salvini’s No
referendum rallies have been “Trumpified”, accompanied now by
supporters waving blue placards, emblazoned “Salvini Premier”,
designed to imitate those familiar from American town hall meetings.
At a recent rally of 30,000 in Florence, he even wore a Trump
trademark baseball cap, sporting a No slogan.
As the air of
insurgency becomes unmistakable, the technical debate over reforming
a 70-year-old constitution is in danger of becoming a sideshow.
Perhaps the most disturbing poll for Renzi found last week that only
40% of Italians say they will vote on the reform package; 56%
consider their vote to be more a verdict on the prime minister, his
government and, by implication, the state of the nation.
If that bigger
picture still dominates come polling day, it is hard to see anything
but defeat for a man once billed as Italy’s Blair. After 13 years
of a flatlining economy, Italians are battered, bruised and looking
for somebody to blame. Unemployment is running at 11%, but is close
to 40% among the young, who made up the bulk of the 107,000 who left
the country last year to seek work abroad. The aftermath of the
financial crash is estimated to have wiped out about a quarter of
Italian industry. The average family income is less now than it was
in 2007.
Traditionally among
the most enthusiastic proponents of European integration, ordinary
Italians are furious at the EU’s failure to share the burden of the
huge migration surge to their southern shores. Lectures from Brussels
on the need to cut public spending and balance budgets, given the
desperately straitened times, have added insult to injury. It is no
coincidence that a current bookshop bestseller – 1960: The Best
Year of Our Lives – is a nostalgic evocation of the Italian postwar
economic miracle, when the country’s growth was judged to outstrip
Germany’s.
As initially strong
support for his constitutional reforms has plummeted, Renzi has tried
to turn the tide. In an attempt to woo an increasingly Eurosceptic
electorate, he has begun to talk tough to Brussels, temporarily
abandoning austerity targets and threatening to veto the EU budget
unless other member states show more solidarity over migration.
Resorting to what
opponents describe as scare tactics, he has also drawn attention to a
recent spike in the interest rates on government bonds. The markets
have become decidedly uneasy at the prospect of Italy becoming the
next country to deliver a seismic shock at the polls. “The yield
will get bigger if uncertainty grows,” noted the prime minister.
“That’s not a threat: it’s just a fact.”
A sharp rise in the
cost of financing Italy’s colossal public debt could spell
disaster. But just as the so-called fear factor failed to keep
Britain in the EU, there are few signs that Renzi’s economic
warnings are having the desired effect.
Paola Battistini, a
shopworker from Ferrara who attended the Five Star rally, says: “We
have already been screwed by the banks. The least of our problems is
what the markets think about a No vote or a Renzi resignation. This
country needs to start thinking again about focusing on the needs and
lives of citizens, not the banks.”
Just when he needs
his political friends and allies, Renzi does not seem to have many,
at least in his own party. During his two years in office, the prime
minister has made himself deeply unpopular among sections of the left
through two reforms in particular. Intended to free up the country’s
labour market, the liberalising Jobs Act made it easier for employers
to hire and fire workers. The move incurred the wrath of the unions,
but has so far failed to achieve any significant rise in permanent
employment, especially for the young.
The educational
reform package, the buona scuola, handed new powers over hiring and
salaries to headteachers, and became deeply unpopular among teachers,
another core section of PD support.
Such moves were
always going to be a tough sell with more traditional party members.
Combined with a perceived autocratic “presidential” style, they
have lost Renzi a great deal of goodwill. One of the PD’s elder
statesmen, former prime minister Massimo D’Alema, has already
declared he will vote No, condemning the referendum as a distraction
from Italy’s real problems.
In Bologna’s
university quarter – scene of faculty occupations and violent
clashes in 1977 – the walls of Via Zamboni are covered with posters
advocating a No vote. The arts and humanities building has become a
hub of “No Renzi” activity. Sara Agostinelli, an art graduate who
is likely to vote yes to the constitutional reforms, says: “How PD
supporters vote is going to be vital. What are they going to do? If
Renzi doesn’t win, it will be big trouble down the line.”
Her friend, Silvia
Mimmotti, who is training to be a psychologist, agrees and laments
the prime minister’s lack of strategic nous. “Renzi made a big
mistake to put himself and his future at the centre of this. It’s
not about him – it’s about Italy. But he has made it about
himself and so he’s uniting the factions against him.”
If the orthodox left
has failed to unite behind the prime minister, the right is also in a
state of ferment, as it plots eagerly for a post-Renzi era that could
arrive before Christmas. Inspired by Trump, the anti-euro Lega Nord
leader Salvini has distanced his party from the more liberal,
pro-European Forza Italia, which still looks to Silvio Berlusconi,
now 80, as its spiritual leader.
Salvini has long
attempted to model the Lega on France’s Front National, led by
Marine Le Pen, with an emphasis on border controls, protectionism and
an “Italians first” philosophy. In the wake of events in the US,
he has now repudiated the centre-right label altogether, telling
journalists: “I don’t want to talk any more about the internal
dynamics of what used to be the centre-right. I won’t be using that
term any more. What we need now is a sovereignty project. Renzi will
be in power for a few more weeks. Whoever wishes to govern with us
needs to know that the euro must be destroyed. We have to take back
control of our currency.”
The Lega Nord, as
its name indicates, is a northern rather than a national power, with
its main strongholds in the north-eastern Veneto region. As Italy’s
economy stagnates and the country struggles to cope with the influx
of more than 120,000 migrants and refugees this year, the Lega’s
aggressive nationalism and calls for closed borders are finding a
bigger audience. But it is the prospect of a Grillo-generated “fuck
off” moment in 2017 or early 2018, if Renzi loses his referendum,
that is the stuff of nightmares in Rome and Brussels.
If the prime
minister carries out his threat to resign, it will be up to the
Italian president, Sergio Mattarella, to decide whether to appoint a
caretaker government or call a general election. The former is more
likely, but elections must in any case take place by early 2018 and
Grillo will be perfectly placed to seize the moment.
“The Five Star
Movement can take support from both the right and the left,” said
Gianfranco Baldini, professor in European politics at the University
of Bologna. “In the case of a No vote, they will be the big
beneficiary.”
Formed only seven
years ago, Five Star has become one of Europe’s biggest populist
organisations and is now the main opposition in Italy. Still defining
itself as a movement rather than a party, it attracts rightwing
voters through a tough line on immigration and idealistic leftwingers
through a devotion to direct democracy and the environment.
Passionate denunciations of corruption in public life appeal across
the political spectrum.
Apart from Grillo,
68, who cannot stand for parliament because of a conviction for
manslaughter following a car accident in 1980, Five Star’s leaders
are young, inexperienced and more used to protest than office. Since
June, its newest star, Virginia Raggi, has endured a rocky few months
after being elected mayor of Rome. But if the Five Star Movement
becomes a government, the roller coaster ride, for Italy and for
Europe, will have only just begun.
Like Salvini, Grillo
has called for a vote on leaving the euro – an “Italeave”
referendum – in order that “the people can decide on monetary
sovereignty”. Should that ever come to pass, one of the founder
members of the EU would become the epicentre of a eurozone crisis
that they can scarcely afford. A banking meltdown would become a
genuine possibility; concern has been mounting throughout the year
over the fragile finances of major Italian banks and one-fifth of
loans in the banking system are categorised as troubled.
Not surprisingly,
given the stakes, centrist politicians of various stripes are closing
ranks ahead of next Sunday’s moment of truth. Delivering a
passionate call to arms last week, Pier Ferdinando Casini, a senior
figure in the senate and former president of the chamber of deputies,
said: “Today, moderates have only one choice: help Renzi in order
to prevent Italy falling into the hands of Grillo and the populists.”
During the past few
weeks, as the referendum campaign has neared its climax, Baldini has
combined his academic work with travelling around the central region
of Emilia-Romagna, delivering talks on the constitutional reforms.
Author of Great
Britain after Brexit, he has been struck by the parallels between the
Italian and British referendums. “Both campaigns have been
polarised and divisive,” he said. “Both have seen very bleak
scenarios depicted by either side in attempts to scare the
electorate, for example with the idea that a yes vote will usher in a
very authoritarian regime.”
In his
presentations, Baldini, who will vote yes, tries to go to what he
sees as the nub of the issue. “The present constitution was drawn
up in 1948,” he says. “It was a different world: an Italy that
had emerged from a civil war between fascists and communists and one
with deep divisions. It needed very strong checks and balances, which
is why the senate was made so powerful. It’s not the same situation
now.”
Unfortunately for
Baldini, it is proving difficult to make that argument stick, such is
the suspicion towards anything coming out of Rome. “In a small town
[in Emilia Romagna] called Bagnolo-in-Piano,” he recalls, “an
elderly man came up to me and said, ‘I enjoyed the discussion but I
just don’t trust anybody any more. I want to keep hold of my vote
for the senate.’ I responded that it’s common for the second
chambers in European democracies to be appointed, but he didn’t
care about that. And he’s not alone. People don’t trust leaders
any more.”
Baldini points out
that it would be a mistake to think the grassroots revolt against
elites, led principally by Grillo, is a complete novelty in Italy. He
cites the rise of the anti-politics Common Man’s Front, which took
a million votes in the election of 1946 (motto: “Get off My Case”).
In the 1970s, Marco Panella’s Radical party was influential in
marshalling opposition to the “partitocracy” dominated by the
then Christian Democrats and in championing civil rights on issues
such as divorce and abortion. More recently, with the memory of the
tangentopoli corruption scandal still fresh, Berlusconi won power as
an “outsider” pledging to clean up politics and run Italy like a
business.
“There have been
regular crises of legitimacy in Italian politics – and waves of
populism,“ says Baldini. “It goes in cycles.”
Nevertheless, he
agrees that the referendum carries a significance far beyond the
updating, or not, of Italy’s constitution. “In a way the stakes
are even higher in Italy than for Brexit. The prime minister has
gambled everything and there is no one in the wings to take his place
if he goes.”
In the chaotic
aftermath of the second world war, Roman writer Guglielmo Giannini
founded the Fronte dell’Uomo Qualunque (Common Man’s Front).
Claiming to represent the beleaguered ordinary Italian, battered by
Nazi occupation and the civil war between fascists and communists
that followed, it stood against the major parties in 1946 elections
and won more than a million votes. Fiercely anti-communist and
popular in the south, it campaigned against “professional”
politicians and in favour of the monarchy. Though shortlived, it left
a legacy in the word qualunquismo, signifying an anti-political
attitude.
In an era when
Italian politics was dominated by three parties – the Christian
Democrats, the Communists and the Socialists – civil rights
activist and journalist Marco Pannella found a niche with the
creation of the liberal Partito Radicale, and was influential in the
battle for divorce and abortion rights. Pannella was a crucial player
in one of the most significant moments in postwar Italian democracy,
when a referendum on divorce was held in 1974. Voters were asked
whether they backed the repeal of a law passed three years earlier
permitting divorce for the first time in Catholic Italy. Alongside
the growing feminist movement, Pannella passionately campaigned
against the proposal, which was eventually rejected.
Berlusconi’s
‘clean up’
As Italy reeled from
a huge political corruption scandal in the early 1990s, media mogul
Silvio Berlusconi declared that he intended to scendere in campo (get
out there - literally “enter the pitch”) to clean up the
political system. Only three months after he had founded the Forza
Italia party, which he still leads, Berlusconi became prime minister.
Although he lost the 1996 general election, he returned to power as
leader of a rightwing coalition in 2001 and became the dominant
political figure of the next 10 years, despite being plagued by court
cases relating to his businesses.
In 2007 popular
comedian Beppe Grillo staged a day of rallies, called Vaffanculo
(Fuck Off) Day, across Italy, calling for the reform of Italian
politics, including fixed terms for members of parliament and an end
to political immunity for MPs with criminal convictions. The response
was enormous and the Five Star Movement (M5S) was born. Though not a
formal party, the M5S is now Italy’s main opposition. As well as
limited terms for MPs, Grillo has called for a referendum on the euro
and a tough line on immigration.
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