How
the House of Commons will fight Brexit
Theresa
May’s Brexit headaches are only just beginning.
By TOM
MCTAGUE 11/17/16, 5:25 AM CET
LONDON — If you
thought Brexit was chaotic now, just wait until divorce proceedings
actually start.
Within the next two
years, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May must get parliament’s
approval to kickstart Britain’s withdrawal, convert all EU law into
U.K. law, introduce an immigration bill restricting freedom of
movement from the Continent and negotiate a divorce deal with
Brussels that doesn’t wreck the economy or spark a fresh bid for
Scottish independence.
Even assuming she is
able to strike a deal with 27 EU leaders, May must ensure her 328 MPs
keep discipline throughout the process and do not break ranks to back
pro-EU wrecking amendments or hardline Brexit rebellions designed to
force her hand.
Ameet Gill, former
director of strategy for the previous Prime Minister David Cameron,
said: “From my experience, working for the leader of the
Conservative Party, you never want to put anything with Europe in its
title — or anything Europe-related — on the floor of the House of
Commons because you know what the Tory party is like on this.”
And that’s before
the House of Lords is added into the mix.
In a series of
conversations with POLITICO, senior figures who have worked at the
highest levels of government said May’s strategy for engaging
parliament was a recipe for chaos and warned of dramatic late-night
votes, knife-edge results, sudden rebellions and unexpected
government climb-downs in a drama that will shape British politics
for years to come.
Trouble ahead
While things may get
progressively harder, May is unlikely to face trouble firing the
starting gun.
Even if the Supreme
Court backs the High Court’s ruling that parliamentary approval is
necessary to trigger Article 50, which formally begins the withdrawal
process, she is almost certain to win a parliamentary vote.
In a mark of just
how far British politics has shifted since June’s referendum, many
MPs who initially backed remaining in the EU now consider it
politically toxic to be seen to be blocking Brexit.
Gill insisted that
there aren’t enough MPs or peers willing to vote down May’s plan
to start Brexit negotiations by the end of March.
Instead, Gill
believes, the PM’s problems will come when the “Great Repeal
Bill” — which will scrap the 1972 European Communities Act which
took Britain into the EU, while simultaneously transferring all EU
law onto the domestic statute book — is put on the floor of the
Commons later next year.
Any MP, or member of
the House of Lords, can make amendments to bills as they travel
through parliament. Each must be backed by both houses — so one
simple amendment can cause chaos if a government can’t get majority
backing among MPs or Lords. If those proposing an amendment can build
momentum around their cause, the government could be in trouble.
As soon as the bill
is laid before MPs, Gill said, Euroskeptics will seize the
opportunity to attach amendments to annul Brussels regulations they
dislike, rather than accept the entire gamut of EU law in one fell
swoop.
On the other side of
the aisle, Labour, Scottish National Party and Liberal Democrat MPs
will try to protect anything they believe is under threat in the
divorce, attaching clauses ensuring, for instance, continued access
to the single market.
“The most
difficult issue they face on this is this potential single market
amendment. Full membership of the single market,” he said.
Such a potent
amendment could be put down by senior figures such as former Lib Dem
leader Nick Clegg or former Labour leader Ed Miliband and quickly
gain traction among pro-EU MPs from across the Commons, including
some Tories.
Although he was on
the other side of the referendum debate, Gill’s business partner
Paul Stephenson, also a Cameron aide who worked on contentious
legislation for the former prime minister and then advised the
official Leave campaign, agreed the passage of Brexit through
parliament could be extremely complex for May. He foresaw trouble
coming from Brexiteers as much as from Remainers.
“We could get into
the situation where you have article 50 triggered next year, and a
year later it becomes very clear that we’re not going to get a very
good deal, and the Europeans aren’t playing ball, the economy is
getting a bit uncertain and actually there’s an argument to be —
which the Leavers could make — which is let’s end this facade of
the negotiation now, put down some amendments saying let’s just
scrap the [European Court of Auditors] now and go straight to WTO.”
This is all before
MPs vote on the final terms of any deal.
Game of chess
Downing Street feels
it has no choice but to open this particular can of worms. The case
for the bill is “watertight” because Britain cannot be taken out
of the EU without repealing the 1972 act. “It’s essential to
restore the parliamentary sovereignty that people voted for,” said
one Number 10 aide.
The unenviable task
of shepherding the Great Repeal Bill through parliament has been left
to Brexit Secretary David Davis.
“Once
you put a bill like that on the floor of the house then anybody can
put down an amendment and there will be many people who will want to
put down amendments” — Keir Starmer, Labour’s shadow Brexit
secretary
The battle has
begun, even before the Great Repeal Act has been drawn up. Former
Conservative Party chairman Grant Shapps has already proposed an
amendment introducing a “sunset clause” on all EU law transferred
into domestic legislation, which would force the government to decide
which rules it wants to keep and which can be allowed to lapse.
“He’s very
unpopular with his Conservative colleagues for that suggestion,”
said veteran Tory Euroskeptic MP John Redwood, adding that the
proposal has “no support whatsoever” and insisting his hardline
allies have no intention of amending the Great Repeal bill. “There’s
no way anyone else wants to do that. As far as I am aware — I know
all the Euroskeptics very well — we all want a simple, short,
principles bill to take back control.”
However, Labour’s
shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer told POLITICO he was also
gearing up for a major battle. “The idea that there won’t be a
real fight amongst Tory MPs on what goes in the bill in the first
place is, I think, a bit far-fetched.”
“Once you put a
bill like that on the floor of the house then anybody can put down an
amendment and there will be many people who will want to put down
amendments — either adding or certainly taking away,” he said.
He warned that he
would be “watching like a hawk” for any attempt to sneak through
changes giving the government the power to alter current EU law
without a full vote in the Commons.
May’s battles at
home are only just beginning.
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