Crisis and chaos (even by Italian standards)
Matteo Salvini was expected to kill off the government.
Instead, he may prolong its life.
Analysts seem confused as to why Salvini pushed for an end
to the government and then backed a constitutional reform
By JACOPO
BARIGAZZI 8/13/19, 11:22 PM CET
Updated 8/14/19, 12:09 AM CET
Italian Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the far-right
League party Matteo Salvini is congratulated by his party senators after his
speech at the upper house | Filippo Monteforte/AFP via Getty Images
Matteo Salvini put his finger on the Italian government's
"off" switch, but he hasn't found a way to push it yet.
Almost a week after the League leader surprisingly announced
that after 14 months he wants to put an end to the coalition government with
the 5Star Movement, and that he wants to go to the polls as soon as possible,
the government is still in place.
And it might stay that way for a good while longer.
As lawmakers gathered in the Senate on Tuesday to discuss
when to hold a confidence vote in Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte — a vote called
by Salvini — many were expecting the League chief to pull his ministers from
the government (some newspapers had been quoting him as saying that was the
plan). Such a move could have made the confidence vote unnecessary and sped up
the process of holding a fresh election.
Many of the main players have been doing the exact opposite
of what they have been saying.
But he didn't do
it. On the contrary, he even said he agrees with the 5Stars that no
election should be held until they pass a law that would see the number of
Italian lawmakers cut by 345 seats (from 630 to 400 in the Chamber of Deputies
and from 315 to 200 in the Senate). Such a constitutional reform would likely
keep the government in place for longer as it would be a lengthy process and
could even require a referendum.
"We cut 345 lawmakers and we go straight to the vote,”
Salvini said on Tuesday.
The debate in the Senate was the first time MPs had a chance
to discuss the crisis sparked by Salvini (they are supposed to be on vacation
until the end of the month). Lawmakers decided that Conte will speak in the
upper chamber on August 20, when the confidence vote is expected to take place.
The choice of date was supported by the 5Stars and the main
opposition party, the center-left Democratic Party (PD) — showing, at least in
terms of numbers, that there's a possible new governing majority if and when
the current government collapses.
The League,
Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia and the far-right Brothers of Italy all voted
for Conte to face a vote of confidence on Wednesday.
“The vote in the Senate showed that the League is now
leading the center right,” said Marco Damilano, editor of the political weekly
L’Espresso, speaking on LA7 TV.
Yet there are strong tensions. Forza Italia, which used to
be the biggest party on the right, has rebuffed a Salvini offer to form a
common electoral list. In a post on Facebook on Tuesday, the party officially
rejected his overtures, arguing that it would not "renounce" its
"history, its symbol and its [electoral] lists" by forging a pact
with the League.
Analysts and commentators seem confused as to why Salvini
pushed for a quick end to the government and then backed a constitutional
reform that could prolong the very thing he seemingly wanted to kill.
Salvini “miscalculated … he then realized he made a mistake
and he’s trying to fix it with this move,” said one senior League official
speaking on condition of anonymity.
The League's leader denied that he is going to delay an
election, telling journalists after the Senate vote that to speed things up,
parliament could start to approve the constitutional reform now and then fully
implement it in the next legislature. President Sergio Mattarella, who would
make the final decision on calling an election, might disagree with Salvini.
“The aim is to avoid a 5Stars-PD tie-up, although this could
mean elections could take place in one year’s time at the earliest,” said one
League government aide.
Tuesday's move was just the latest twist in a crisis that,
in less than a week, has already seen enough tricks, U-turns and stratagems to
fill a Commedia dell'arte play.
Even by Italian standards this is rather too much: the daily
La Stampa on Monday asked if the country is about to see "the most
spectacular turnaround in history?"
Many of the main players have been doing the exact opposite
of what they have been saying.
For almost 14 months, Salvini has been saying that this
government will last five years. But last week he tried to end it.
One of his main opponents, former Prime Minister Matteo
Renzi, when he was still the leader of the PD, opposed any deal with the
5Stars. Yet on Sunday, in an interview with Il Corriere della Sera, he opened
the way to exactly such a deal.
The 5Stars' founder, comedian Beppe Grillo, has been one of
the main sponsors of the coalition with Salvini and a fierce critic of the PD.
Yet on Saturday in his blog, he described the League as “barbarians” and seemed
open to a deal with the PD that could see the two sides link up and force the
largest party in the country — the League — into opposition.
Even by Italian standards, this is rather too much: the
daily La Stampa on Monday asked if the country is about to see "the most spectacular
turnaround in history?"
Silvia Sciorilli
Borrelli contributed reporting.
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