Boris Johnson loses Brexit bite in Biarritz
New UK prime minister makes a big noise at his first G7, but
doesn’t shift the Brexit dial.
By CHARLIE
COOPER 8/25/19, 8:47 PM CET
Updated 8/25/19, 10:05 PM CET
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson attends a working
session during the G7 summit on August 24, 2019 in Biarritz, France | Pool
photo by Dylan Martinez/Getty Images
BIARRITZ, France — Boris Johnson made plenty of noise in
Biarritz, but at critical moments, his bark proved worse than his bite.
The U.K. prime minister headed into one of his key meetings
of his first major outing on the world stage — a 20-minute head-to-head with
Donald Tusk during the G7 summit — on Sunday against a backdrop of newspaper
reports claiming he would tell the European Council president the EU would lose
out on up to £30 billion worth of U.K. financial obligations in the event of a
no-deal Brexit.
But when it came to it, the issue didn’t even come up during
their talk on the sidelines of the summit in the coastal French town, according
to EU officials.
Indeed, for a prime minister who let it be known during his
leadership campaign that he would retain the U.K.’s full £39 billion divorce
bill, Downing Street’s acceptance that some money must be paid even in the
event of no deal represents a climb-down of sorts.
The Sunday Times reported that U.K. government lawyers put the
financial obligation in the event of no deal at between £7 billion and £10
billion, but following the Tusk meeting, Downing Street declined to put a
figure on it.
There was also a sense of anti-climax about Johnson’s
challenge to Donald Trump on trade.
The £39 billion was a figure “attached to the Withdrawal
Agreement,” agreed by Theresa May, a U.K. government official said. “If we
leave without a deal, then obviously the Withdrawal Agreement no longer
stands.”
“If we are to leave without a deal, there will be
substantial sums that we can spend domestically,” the official added, but
didn’t say how much. Johnson “didn’t discuss figures,” the official said.
There was also a sense of anti-climax about Johnson’s
challenge to Donald Trump on trade. The prime minister had positioned himself
before the summit as a defender of the principles of free trade and open
economies. But in comments to the press ahead of his one-hour meeting with the
U.S. president, amid bellicose rhetoric from Trump on China, Johnson mustered
only what he admitted was a “faint, sheep-like note of our view on the trade
war.”
“We're in favor of trade peace on the whole, and dialing it
down if we can,” he said. Trump barely seemed to notice.
Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson (right) meets
European Union Council President Donald Tusk (left) at the G7 summit on August
25, 2019 in Biarritz, France | Pool photo by Neil Hall/Getty Images
Finding a way through
Johnson began his second summit day with a 7 a.m. swim in
the Atlantic, a dip which he later used as part of an analogy for his Brexit
strategy. Monitored by a French security team on paddleboards and boats and
accompanied by the U.K.'s ambassador to France Ed Llewellyn, he said he had
swum all the way round a rocky outcrop just off the beach.
"Let me give
you a metaphor. I swam round that rock this morning. From here you
cannot tell there is a gigantic hole in that rock. There is a way
through," Johnson said during a TV interview later in the day. "My
point to the EU is that there is a way through, but you can't find the way
through if you just sit on the beach."
Actual detail on the way forward was in short supply,
however.
Both sides said the Tusk-Johnson meeting took place in a
positive atmosphere (Saturday's trading of "Mr. No Deal" barbs did
not get a mention either). But there were few signs of progress. The EU is
waiting for the U.K. to put forward what Tusk calls "credible
alternatives" to the Northern Ireland backstop plan — a pillar of the
Withdrawal Agreement — before they countenance a formal negotiation.
Reflecting the circular dispute in which the two sides find
themselves, the U.K. official countered: “We’ve always been ready to talk … if
you’re talking about a formal negotiation, the EU have to be willing to reopen
the Withdrawal Agreement because the Withdrawal Agreement simply cannot pass
through parliament."
The question of parliament, and what it will try to do to
prevent Johnson from delivering on his pledge to take the U.K. out of the EU —
deal or no deal — on October 31, continued to dog the prime minister during the
summit.
In a reminder of the battle waiting for him at home, former
Chancellor Philip Hammond sent a strongly-worded letter on Sunday demanding
Downing Street withdraw anonymous briefings which last week suggested a former
minister was responsible for leaking documents that painted a bleak picture of
the potential impact of a no-deal Brexit. Hammond had fallen under suspicion
for the leak, something his team has denied.
Johnson himself told the BBC in Biarritz that the
probability of a deal was now "touch and go."
"I am writing on behalf of all former ministers in the
last administration to ask you to withdraw these allegations which question our
integrity, acknowledge that no former minister could have leaked this document,
and apologize for the misleading briefing from No. 10," Hammond wrote.
He and other
anti-no deal Conservative MPs have indicated a willingness to back Johnson if
he makes a genuine push for a deal with the EU. But their patience will run out
quickly if there are no substantive talks soon, and a parliamentary move to
block Johnson heading for no deal could happen as soon as MPs return to
Westminster in early September.
Johnson himself
told the BBC in Biarritz that the probability of a deal was now "touch and
go" — a significant downgrade on his previous prediction that no deal was
a "million to one" scenario.
So far, his Biarritz outing has given little cause to
believe the trend will reverse any time soon.
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