Step-by-Step
Rapprochement: Germany Considers Easing of Russia Sanctions
Standing
tough on Russia remains official policy, but Germany has begun
working on the careful easing of sanctions imposed following Moscow's
aggression in Ukraine. The US is opposed, but many in the EU could
support the new approach. By SPIEGEL Staff
May 30, 2016 –
06:12 PM
With the Wednesday
evening sun shining in his face, German Economics Minister Sigmar
Gabriel is standing at the entrance to the HanseMesse convention
center in the northern German city of Rostock. He's surrounded by
cardboard sandwich boards displaying the center's motto: "Where
the world comes together." Today, the sentence is half true at
best: The world isn't coming together in Rostock, rather German and
Russian business leaders are converging here. It is the second
"Russia Day" and Gabriel is the keynote speaker.
The focus of the
gathering is on business, but when Russia is involved, politics are
never far away. Even Gabriel's appearance sends a political message,
as is his demonstratively friendly treatment of Russia's industry
minister -- not to mention the first sentence he speaks into the
microphone: "Isolation is not at all helpful."
Later in his speech,
Gabriel expands on that sentiment, saying isolation is not a tenable
policy and that only continued dialogue is helpful. He says that
Russia has recently shown that it can be a reliable partner and
mentions the nuclear deal with Iran as an example. He says that
Russia and the world are dependent on each other -- and that the time
has come for a step-by-step easing of sanctions.
Gabriel voiced a
similar message prior to the most recent extension of the sanctions
against Russia. Nothing came of it then, but things could be
different this time.
As expected, G-7
leaders reiterated their hardline approach to Moscow in the Japan
summit's closing statement. Chancellor Angela Merkel complained last
Thursday that there still isn't a stable cease-fire in Ukraine and
the law pertaining to local elections in eastern Ukraine, as called
for by the Minsk Protocol, still hasn't been passed. That, she said,
is why "it is not to be expected" that the West will change
its approach to Russia.
What Merkel didn't
say, though, is that behind the scenes, her government has long since
developed concrete plans for a step-by-step easing of the sanctions
against Russia and that the process could begin as early as this
year.
Thus far, the
message has been that the trade and travel restrictions will only be
lifted once all the provisions foreseen by the Minsk Protocol have
been fulfilled. One-hundred percent in return for 100 percent.
Now, however, Berlin
is prepared to make concessions to Moscow -- on the condition that
progress is made on the Minsk process. "My approach has always
been that sanctions are not an end in themselves. When progress is
made on the implementation of the Minsk Protocol, we can also then
talk about easing sanctions," says Foreign Minister Frank-Walter
Steinmeier.
Chancellery Changing
Course
The Chancellery also
supports the new approach. Thus far, it was the Social Democrats that
were particularly vocal about rapprochement with Russia. Led by
Economics Minister Gabriel, the SPD is Merkel's junior coalition
partner. While Steinmeier, also a senior SPD member, has never
explicitly demanded the easing of sanctions, he has long supported
Russia's return to the G-7. Merkel, by contrast, had always
maintained a hard line. Now, though, the Chancellery also appears to
be changing course.
The plan is to lift
initial sanctions in return for Moscow's cooperation on planned local
elections in eastern Ukraine. Berlin is not looking at lifting those
financial sector penalties that are particularly painful to Russian
President Vladimir Putin. Nor is there a willingness to revisit the
sanctions imposed in response to Russia's annexation of the Crimean
Peninsula. But eliminating travel restrictions imposed on certain
select individuals, such as members of the Russian parliament, could
be considered. Another approach under examination is that of simply
reducing the interval for extending the sanctions from six months to
three months.
Berlin's argument is
that, in a Europe where those in favor of sanctions and those opposed
to sanctions are drifting ever further apart, it is necessary to find
a way to keep the EU on the same page. Two weeks ago, Steinmeier
warned that, with Brussels set to vote on an extension of the
penalties soon, resistance to doing so is growing within Europe. It
is becoming more difficult, he said, to arrive at a uniform EU
position on the issue, which is necessary since the sanctions
extension must be passed unanimously. The German line is that Putin
must not be given the impression that he can divide the EU.
"The highest
priority is that of preserving the EU consensus," says Gernot
Erler of the SPD, who is the German government's special coordinator
for Russia policy. "If we have to pay a price for that, we
should be prepared to do so. The worst outcome would be the
disintegration of European unity and the EU losing its role."
In Brussels, the
European Council, the powerful body representing the leaders of the
28 EU member states, and the European Commission, the EU executive,
are staying firm officially: Only after the Minsk Protocol has been
100 percent fulfilled can sanctions be lifted. That is the approach
passed unanimously last year and extended for six months last
December.
European Council
President Donald Tusk said last Thursday at the G-7 in Japan that he
was "quite sure" that a decision to renew the sanctions
would be made "in the next two or three weeks without huge
discussions." Tusk is opposed to putting the issue on the agenda
for the EU summit scheduled for the end of June, preferring instead
to have sanctions discussed by EU ambassadors in Brussels.
Questioning the
Sanctions Regime
But more and more EU
member states have begun questioning the strict penalty regime,
particularly given that it hasn't always been the Russians who have
blocked the Minsk process. Despite Tusk's apparent optimism,
indications are mounting that getting all 28 EU members to approve
the extension of the sanctions at the end of June might not be quite
so simple. Berlin has received calls from concerned government
officials whose governments have become increasingly skeptical of the
penalties against Russia but have thus far declined to take a public
stance against them.
Members of some
governments, though, have very clearly indicated that they are not
interested in extending the sanctions in their current stringent
form. Austrian Vice Chancellor Reinhold Mitterlehner is among the
skeptics as is French Economics Minister Emmanuel Macron. So too are
officials from Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal.
Hungary has been
particularly outspoken. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto
said last Wednesday following a meeting with his Russian counterpart
Sergey Lavrov in Budapest that his country would not accept an
automatic extension of the sanctions regime. Hungarian exports to
Russia have collapsed as a result of the penalties, a problem
experienced by the Czech Republic and other Eastern European
countries as well.
Italian Prime
Minister Matteo Renzi is another EU leader who has long been critical
of the EU's approach to Russia. Renzi is bothered by the fact that
his country has suffered economic losses as a result of the sanctions
while Germany has continued working together with Russia on the
Nordstream Pipeline across the Baltic Sea. Italy, the EU's third
largest economy, is one of Russia's largest trading partners in
Europe.
The mood is changing
in France as well. At the end of April, the French parliament adopted
a non-binding resolution calling for the end of the penalties imposed
on Moscow. One of the reasons cited was that French farmers are
suffering the consequences. Sanctions critics also argue that Moscow
is a necessary partner when it comes to pacifying Syria and that
constantly keeping Russia at arm's length is counterproductive.
The Netherlands,
which currently holds the rotating EU presidency, is in a difficult
situation. In an April referendum, the Dutch voted against the
planned European Union association agreement with Ukraine. The issue
wasn't directly related to the issue of Russian sanctions, but some
have interpreted it as a pro-Russian vote. Since then, the Dutch
government has been acting extremely carefully.
Meanwhile, Great
Britain, Poland and the Baltic countries are leading the opposition
to any relaxation of the sanctions in place against Russia. But a
possible compromise is in the works. Poland and the three Baltic
countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could agree to a
step-by-step easing of the sanctions were more NATO troops to be
stationed in those countries. Such an arrangement would allow both
camps to save face.
'A Dangerous
Precedent'
It is certain,
however, that Berlin's plans will not be particularly well received
on the other side of the Atlantic. "The sanctions against Russia
should only be lifted once the Protocol is comprehensively
implemented," says US Ambassador to Germany John B. Emerson. "A
modification would not send a strong message. It could become a
dangerous precedent."
Part of the
rationale for holding out the prospect of easing sanctions is that of
providing Moscow with an incentive to finally focus on making
progress on Minsk. Putin holds a significant amount of influence over
separatists in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. Were the
Russian president to convince them to finally allow elections there,
and if the OSCE were to confirm that they were free and fair, the
penalties currently in place could be eased.
For that to happen,
though, Ukraine must pass a new election law. Recently, there has
been some progress made toward that end. Whereas the Ukrainian
government and the separatists had been negotiating the new law
directly, Russia is now also a party to the talks and has been
exerting influence on the separatists. At the same time, hold-ups on
the Ukrainian side have decreased in the wake of Prime Minister
Arseniy Yatsenyuk's April resignation. If the new election law could
be passed by the end of June and if uncontested elections were held
soon thereafter, the process of easing sanctions could begin as early
as this fall.
The minimal lifting
of sanctions with strict conditions attached would be an attempt to
improve relations with Russia without returning to normality -- and
without sending Putin the message that the West has resigned itself
to Russia's annexation of Crimea and its destabilization of eastern
Ukraine. That, at least, is the hope. But there are dangers: Putin
could interpret the move as a weakness and as a sign that the West is
not unified enough to stand up to his aggression.
Mistrust remains
extreme on both sides, as does frustration. Putin's military
provocations have made the present the most dangerous period since
the end of the Cold War. NATO, meanwhile, is planning to pass a
resolution at its early July summit that will provide for an
expansion of the alliance's presence in Eastern Europe -- a move that
Russia is certain to interpret as a provocation.
At the same time,
though, the West has shown an interest in increased dialogue with
Moscow after an extended period of virtual silence. The most obvious
signal is the reactivation of the NATO-Russia Council, which --
largely at the behest of German Foreign Minister Steinmeier -- will
soon meet for a second time at the ambassador level.
Meaningless
Dialogue?
Discussion, though,
is taking place at all levels. Contacts that were considered
unthinkable until recently are now being rebuilt. In early April, for
example, a group of German parliamentarians from Merkel's
conservatives, Gabriel's SPD and the Left Party came together in
Moscow with Sergei Naryshkin as part of a conference held by the
German-Russian Forum. Naryshkin is chairman of the Duma, Russia's
parliament, and is on the EU sanctions list. A further encounter with
Naryshkin is planned ahead of the mid-July meeting of the Petersburg
Dialogue, the bilateral discussion forum aimed at promoting exchange
between Russian and German civil society. The session is to take
place in St. Petersburg and keynote speaker on the German side will
be Hamburg Mayor Olaf Scholz, an indication that the controversial
dialogue platform is once again receiving high-level backing.
There has also been
a series of meetings with Russian parliamentarians in Germany in
recent weeks. At a mid-May event organized by the Aspen Institute,
lawmakers from Russia, the US and Germany participated in a
confidential meeting outside of Berlin. Shortly thereafter, the Club
of Three, a German-French-British dialogue platform, met in Berlin
for talks with Russian counterparts.
But without
political rapprochement, such dialogues are meaningless. Furthermore,
participants say they often don't go beyond the exchange of hardened
positions with very little mutual understanding on display. Indeed,
the Russian side has already indicated that talking is not
sufficient, a message consistent with Moscow's extreme
self-confidence since the beginning of Putin's intervention in Syria.
As such, Berlin's
new approach to Russia is not without risk. Indeed, even if the EU
agrees collectively to pursue such a course in relation to Moscow,
there is a danger that Russia will simply reject it as being too
little, too late.
By Matthias Gebauer,
Christiane Hoffmann, Peter Müller, Ruben Rehage, Michael Sauga and
Christoph Schult
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