Germany
wakes up late to Brexit risks
The
UK leaving the EU makes no sense to Germans, who dismissed the idea
as British eccentricity. But now it’s all too real.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 6/22/16, 5:36 AM CET
BERLIN — Germany’s
attitude toward Brexit can be summed up in a single word: denial.
On the rare
occasions Germany took notice of the U.K. referendum in recent
months, it was to dismiss it as yet another British eccentricity,
like baked beans for breakfast or cricket.
With the polls too
close to call and a decision just hours away, Germany is still hoping
for the best. Trouble is, the EU’s biggest country is nowhere near
prepared for the worst.
Unlike the French
establishment, elements of which would welcome Brexit, the Germans
are terrified by the prospect. The consensus in Berlin is that both
economically and politically Brexit would be, in the words of Finance
Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, a “disaster.” He once even compared
Brexit to “walking into a roomful of dynamite with a lit candle.”
The U.K. is
Germany’s third-largest trading partner after the U.S. and France.
It accounts for about 8 percent of German exports. Brexit could cut
German GDP growth by half a percentage point next year, the
Berlin-based DIW economic institute warned this month. That estimate
only looks at the direct impact on exports, not the indirect fallout
from broader market turmoil.
“Supporters of an
EU with the U.K. have it much easier. They have facts to work with”
— Die Zeit
Beyond the economic
impact, Brexit would also rob Germany of a key ally on governance
issues such as budgetary discipline. Over the years, the U.K. has
been an important counterweight in Berlin’s struggle against the
aspirations of France and other Mediterranean countries for common
debt issuance and other steps to collectivize members’ financial
obligations.
Brexit would be such
a fiasco for the European economy that most German elites refused to
take it seriously. The Brits, they reasoned, may be quirky at times,
but they aren’t crazy.
“Supporters of an
EU with the U.K. have it much easier. They have facts to work with,”
the weekly Die Zeit argued in a recent commentary.
Behind the German
refusal to countenance Brexit is a simple conviction: It makes no
sense.
In the eyes of the
German establishment, the U.K. already has the best of both worlds.
The country is outside Schengen and the euro, yet enjoys all the
benefits of full EU membership, from the common market to farm
subsidies. And unlike its oft-cited models for a third path, Norway
and Switzerland, the U.K. has a vote and considerable influence
within the bloc.
That a country would
give all that up to preserve some vague notion of sovereignty or to
keep out migrants is unfathomable to most Germans. Indeed, nearly 80
percent of Germans don’t want the Brits to go, according to a
recent poll by TNS Forschung.
Until recently,
Germans largely ignored the debate. In newspapers, the story was
relegated to the back pages. Even Angela Merkel didn’t seem to take
it all that seriously. At the European summit in mid-February, at
which EU leaders agreed to a set of measures designed to keep the
U.K. in, Merkel was focused on the refugee crisis. When it came to
making the case for a new deal for the U.K., she let British Prime
Minister David Cameron fend for himself.
David Cameron speaks
with German Chancellor Angela Merkel during an EU summit meeting, at
the European Union council in Brussels, on February 18, 2016 |
Stephane De Sakutin/AFP via Getty Images
Many Americans see
Donald Trump and Boris Johnson as the ideal candidates to take the
top job in their respective countries
That’s changed.
Merkel, worried that a forceful intervention could backfire, has
voiced support for the U.K.’s continued membership but has largely
steered clear of the debate. Schäuble has been more forceful,
warning the British that “out is out.”
The German public,
meanwhile, has awoken to the threat. The cover of last week’s Der
Spiegel featured the Union Jack with the headline “Please Don’t
Go” in both English and German. Inside, the magazine offered a
breathless “appeal” for a Remain vote.
“Were the British
to leave the EU, it would be a threefold catastrophe: bad for
Germany, bad for Britain and cataclysmic for Europe.”
Threats to business
Big German companies
with important U.K. operations, such as Siemens and BMW, have become
so worried about the outcome in recent months that they took the
unorthodox step of wading into a highly charged domestic political
debate.
The “uncertainty,
and threat of increased costs, could make the U.K. a less attractive
place to do business and may become a factor when Siemens is
considering future investment here,” Siemens said in a statement.
The German boss of
BMW-owned Rolls Royce went a step further, telling workers in an open
letter the company’s “employment base could also be affected.”
One reason Berlin is
unprepared for Brexit is that the country’s politicians don’t
agree on what to do if it actually happens.
“We couldn’t
simply call for more integration,” Schäuble told Der Spiegel this
month. “That would be crude.”
But European Digital
Economy Commissioner Günther Oettinger, like Schäuble a member of
Merkel’s Christian Democrats, told POLITICO last week that Brexit
could help centralize even more power in Brussels.
“My expectation
would be that the European project would gather new dynamics,” he
said.
The one thing German
politicians do agree on when it comes to Brexit is that it could be a
boon for Frankfurt. A perennial also-ran to London, Germany’s
financial capital could get a big boost if European banks relocate
staff to within the EU’s borders.
“Brexit is the
best thing that could happen to Frankfurt,” a local newspaper
recently concluded.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário