Germany’s
far right set to gain ground beyond its eastern strongholds
In March
2026, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is demonstrating significant
growth in western German states, challenging established parties beyond its
traditional eastern strongholds. This expansion is driven by economic anxiety,
rising immigration concerns, and frustration with the governing coalition.
Key
Developments in Western Germany (2026)
Baden-Württemberg
(Election March 2026): The AfD has roughly doubled its support in this wealthy
western state, polling at approximately 19% compared to 9.7% in 2021. While the
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Greens remain ahead, the AfD has solidified
itself as a major third-place force.
Rhineland-Palatinate:
Similar gains are expected in this month's state election, further testing the
"firewall" (cordon sanitaire) maintained by mainstream parties to
exclude the AfD from government.
Bavaria:
In local and regional contests, the AfD has reached roughly 14% in recent
surveys, positioning it as the second-strongest party in some areas.
Demographic
Shift: While its core remains in the east, the AfD is successfully spreading
into rural western areas characterized by traditional values and lower levels
of migration, deepening an urban-rural divide.
National
Context
Federal
Success: Following the 2025 federal election, the AfD became the second-largest
party in the Bundestag with 20.8% of the vote.
2026
Outlook: Early 2026 polling shows the AfD reaching record nationwide support of
up to 27%, occasionally topping the polls ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s
CDU.
Upcoming
Eastern Elections: The party remains most dominant in the east, with polling
leads of 37-40% in states like Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt ahead
of elections in September 2026.
Despite
these gains, all mainstream parties continue to rule out forming a coalition
with the AfD due to its classification as a potentially extremist party by
German domestic intelligence.
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