Italy’s
search for a new Libyan savior
Rome
hopes stability in the North African nation will protect its oil
interests and stop the flow of migrants.
By ALBERTO MUCCI
4/3/16, 6:00 AM CET Updated 4/3/16, 7:31 AM CET
MILAN — Italy is
pulling out all the stops to secure stability in Libya to protect its
business interests and ward off another potential migration crisis on
its southern shores.
It’s a tough
mission given the chaos that has engulfed the North African country
since the 2011 toppling and killing of Muammar Qadhafi.
But Italy is getting
increasingly worried about migration: A deal between the EU and
Turkey is riddled with problems even before its official launch on
Monday, and the Balkan migrant route north from Greece is closed,
making Italy a more attractive option for those seeking a new life in
Europe — both by land and by sea.
Over the past two
years, divisions among Libya’s political forces, each backed by its
own militia, have deepened, and the country is split between two
governments: The internationally recognized one in eastern Libya and
the Islamist-backed one in the capital, Tripoli.
Then on Wednesday, a
third government — or at least part of it — landed in Tripoli.
It’s backed by the
U.N., the U.S., and the EU, with Italy at the forefront.
In December, the
U.N.managed to get some, though far from all, rival lawmakers to
agree to the formation of a unity government. The deal saw the
formation of a nine-member Presidency Council.
The new government
is led by a little known technocrat, Fayez Serraj, who allegedly
sailed into Tripoli on an Italian boat from Tunis on Wednesday, after
militias exiled him from the Libyan port city of Tobruk.
So far Serraj, who
insists he returned home on a Libyan vessel, has been confined to a
naval base amid increasing hostility from rivals in the east and in
the capital. His backers hope he will put an end to political
rivalries and infighting, and save the country from the chaos that
has been exploited by ISIL. The militants have captured oil terminals
and fields, the main source of Libya’s wealth, and swathes of
territory near the coast to control the migrant smuggling network.
Serraj has pedigree.
His father, Mustafa, held office under King Idris, whose 18-year
monarchy ended in 1969 when he was overthrown by Qadhafi. Al-Jazeera
described Mustafa Sarraj as “one of the founders of the modern
state of Libya after its independence from Italy.”
A new, but better,
relationship
Italian Prime
Minister Matteo Renzi has high hopes for the younger Serraj, who
worked at the housing ministry during the Qadhafi regime and was
chosen as a compromise prime minister as he is not affiliated to any
political party involved in the power struggle.
Renzi wants
cooperation between Tripoli and Rome that recalls the Qadhafi era,
with a Libyan leader able to crack down on people-smugglers on the
high seas and take on ISIL while he’s at it. He’s highly unlikely
to get that any time soon when rival parties have greeted the unity
government with gunfire rather than greetings.
On Friday, three top
Libyan politicians linked to the Islamist-backed leadership in
Tripoli became subject to European Union sanctions for obstructing
the formation of the unity government. The three face travel bans and
asset freezes.
“We hope to reach
new and better agreements with the new Libyan government,” Domenico
Manzione, undersecretary at the Italian interior ministry, told
POLITICO, playing down the amount of contact between Italy and
Serraj’s people. “For now, we have informal talks with the
members of the Tobruk government.”
While they wait to
see if the Libyan unity government survives, the Italians are talking
to other countries on the central Mediterranean route, to avoid a
scenario where southern Italy becomes overwhelmed with migrants when
the warm weather kicks in and the seas become calmer.
Last month, Italian
Interior Minister Angelino Alfano signed an agreement with Albania on
cooperation in the fight against smugglers, with Tirana promising to
tighten controls on the Albanian side. Talks on similar measures are
underway with Montenegro.
During last month’s
European Council, when the EU-Turkey deal was struck, Renzi sought
assurances that concessions made to Ankara in exchange for its
cooperation to curb the migrant flow to Greece would be extended to
other non-EU states — such as Albania and Montenegro — if another
EU member faced a similar situation.
The number of
migrants reaching Italy from Libya is rising. In March, 8,405
refugees arrived, almost triple the number in the same month last
year, according to the U.N. refugee agency (UNHCR). More are waiting
on Libya’s coast to cross, although the number varies considerably
depending on who’s counting: 36,000 according to the UNHCR; 800,000
says French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.
“We have gotten
used to an increase of the refugee flow when approaching summer,”
Manzione said. “We are waiting to see if the Turkey-EU deal will
succeed. If not, there could be some problems for Italy.”
In 2015, a total of
153,841 migrants came to Italy from Libya, according to the UNHCR. In
the first three months of 2016, some 18,400 arrived compared to
10,165 in the same period last year.
Chasing smugglers
into Libyan waters
Since last May, the
Italian Navy has been leading Operation Sophia, a 22-country patrol
mission in international waters off the coast of Libya. In addition
to rescuing stranded migrants on the high seas, its mandate includes
boarding and searching vessels, and seizing and diverting those
suspected of being used for human trafficking.
In 10 months,
Operation Sophia vessels have apprehend 58 suspected human smugglers
and delivered them to Italian authorities. They also destroyed 98
boats and rescued more than 11,500 migrants stranded at sea,
according to the European External Action Service.
Prices for crossing
from Libya to Italy range from $800 and $1,200 per spot on a dingy,
experts say.
But the operation
could be more successful if allowed to operate closer to the Libyan
coast and to chase smugglers into Libyan waters. That can only happen
if the U.N.-brokered unity government is in place, and requests help.
The unity
government, if it can become fully established, would have the full
legitimacy to ask for Western help in dealing with ISIL. It would
almost certainly need it.
According to a
report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized
Crime, published in May 2015, ISIL made around $300 million from
human smuggling 2014. There is no available estimate for ISIL’s
profits from the migrant trade for last year, but with oil prices
plummeting, experts say smuggling could be one of the major sources
of income for the extremist group in Libya.
“They are not
moving people themselves, but they are taxing the people who are,”
said Tom Keatinge, director of the Center for Financial Crime and
Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute.
Prices for crossing
from Libya to Italy range from $800 and $1,200 per spot on a dingy,
experts say. Most refugees and asylum seekers who pay to take the
dangerous journey across the Mediterranean come to Libya from
Eritrea, Somalia and sub-Saharan Africa. Increasingly, however, with
the Balkan route no longer reachable from Turkey through Greece, more
Syrians and Afghanis are headed to Libya with the aim of entering the
EU through Italy.
‘The reason is
ENI’
How Italy manages
the migrant crisis depends on Libya’s stability. Along with U.S.
President Barack Obama, few leaders in Europe appear eager for
another military intervention to achieve political change there. The
reluctance on the part of some European countries appears to be down
to poor prospects for the long-term stability that would pave the way
for business investments.
For Italy, Libya is
already big business. ENI, the Italian oil and gas giant, has a near
monopoly in the North African state. ENI has been operating in Libya
since 1959 and is the sole international oil and gas company
operating in the country at full capacity. Its continued presence in
Libya is of vital strategic importance for Italy. Keeping it there,
despite huge security costs, is perhaps the biggest reason behind
Rome’s efforts to pacify Libya — with or without allies.
According to recent
figures released by ENI, total oil production in Libya has increased
from pre-conflict levels of 240,000 barrels per day to an average of
300,000 barrels per day in 2015. Last year, ENI announced that it had
discovered two oilfields off the Libyan coast.
ENI wants that new
oil, which is why Renzi’s government is trying to keep its distance
from France and the U.K., the two EU countries least opposed to
another military intervention in Libya.
Rome fears that
Paris and London could be motivated to take military action in order
to stake a claim on Libya’s natural resources — the largest
proven oil reserves in Africa and the fourth largest gas reserves on
the continent.
“The West can
train the military, supply arms, provide logistic and intelligence
support, but the Libyans are the ones who have to be in the front
line fighting Daesh,”
“There is a
general mistrust among decision-makers towards a French and British
intervention in Libya,” Massimo Artini, a member of the Italian
parliament and its defense committee, said. “And the reason (for
it) is ENI.”
However, some
security experts said military intervention against ISIL would become
easier with the backing of a strong unity government in Libya.
In February, Peter
Ricketts, British Prime Minister David Cameron’s former national
security adviser, tolf the BBC the likelihood of British forces being
deployed in Libya was remote, “but supporting the Libyans to do a
more effective job in governing their own space, I can certainly see
a case for that.”
In Rome, there’s a
realization that Italy can’t stabilize Libya on its own — either
politically or militarily. That’s the reason Renzi needs to make
sure Rome has the leading role in international efforts to install
the unity government in Tripoli, and protect it from rival militias
and ISIL, and in naval operations against human smugglers.
“There is only one
strategy Rome can pursue in Libya,” said Vincezo Camporini, chief
of defense staff of the Italian Armed Forces until 2011. “It has to
play a leading role within the international coalition even though
this might not be its preferred option.”
And in that, the
Italians have full backing of the Obama administration, with U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry repeatedly praising Renzi’s
leadership on Libya. Renzi’s government has supported U.S.
airstrikes on ISIL positions in Libya, but there is concern that any
broader intervention against the militant group would prompt ISIL to
send tens of thousands of migrants to Italy from the 200-kilometer
stretch of the Libyan coast under its control.
‘Something needs
to be done’
Despite its
reluctance, plans have been drawn up in Rome for military
intervention and its aftermath. Italian Foreign Minister Paolo
Gentiloni hosted a meeting of military leaders from around the world
to ponder the establishment of a stabilizing force for Libya.
“There is
consensus that something needs to be done,” Artini said. However,
he added, there is no agreement on how it should be done: Declare a
no-fly zone over Libya? Send a peacekeeping force? Provide training
for its forces? “Nobody really has the perfect solution,” Artini
said.
Bernardino Leon,
former EU special representative and head of the United Nations
Support Mission in Libya, said the international community “needs
to help the Libyans help themselves” to crush ISIL.
“The West can
train the military, supply arms, provide logistic and intelligence
support, but the Libyans are the ones who have to be in the front
line fighting Daesh,” Leon said, using the Arabic acronym for
ISIL.”A large international presence on the ground could be
counterproductive, rising tensions instead of lowering them and
dividing the country more than uniting it.”
A spokesman for the
Italian defense ministry confirmed that preparations are underway for
a proper and prompt response to any request from a new Libyan
government for help — should such a request ever come.
“Let’s say the
new Libyan government asks for support to train the police,” the
spokesman said. “We want to be able to respond and send men within
15 days of receiving the request.”
Authors:
Alberto Mucci
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