Ticket
to Europe: Refugee Crisis Focus Shifts to North Africa
By
Walter Mayr
April
27, 2016 – 05:21 PM
Hundreds
of thousands of Africans are preparing to test their luck on the
voyage across the Mediterranean to Europe. As the weather begins
improving, the number of arrivals will rise -- as will the number of
deaths.
Abdul Kadir Mohamed
Moalim has seen hell. Originally from Somalia, a country ravaged by
civil war, he traveled via a refugee camp in Yemen and then to Libya.
From there, he crossed the Mediterranean to Europe.
On April 16, an
overloaded wooden vessel capsized on the high seas and only a few
people on board managed to survive. Moalim was one of them. Now, he
is in Kalamata, the Greek city that rescuers brought him to. In an
interview conducted there by the BBC, he was asked if he had a
message for those still in Africa who are waiting for their
opportunity to flee to Europe. His answer: "It's so dangerous,"
he said. "You have to believe in your country and ... stay where
you are."
Moalim bore witness
to a tragedy in which up to 500 Somalis, Sudanese and Ethiopians
drowned, according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR). That would make
it the worst such accident of the last 12 months. In April 2015, a
fishing boat sank while on its way from Libya toward Italy and up to
800 men, women and children died. Then, too, most of the victims were
from sub-Saharan Africa.
Europe continues to
focus primarily on the war refugees coming from Syria, Iraq and
Afghanistan. But it is often forgotten that increasing numbers of
people from countries south of the Sahara are trying to head north as
well. In 2015 alone, according to the European Union border control
agency Frontex, 108,000 Africans made their way illegally to Europe.
That represents an increase of 42 percent over 2014 -- and experts
believe the total is but a harbinger of what Europe may soon be
facing.
The UNHCR calculates
that there are currently 60 million displaced people worldwide. More
than half of the military conflicts contributing to that total are to
be found on the African continent, in places like Libya, Somalia,
Nigeria and Mali. In addition, a devastating drought is ravaging
Ethiopia and Eritrea and a famine is on the horizon.
In total, 1.3
million refugees applied for asylum in the EU last year. Prior to its
closure in March, the main path to Europe was the Balkan Route,
primarily used by Syrians, Iraqis, Afghans and Pakistanis. Now,
however, the route across the Mediterranean is coming back into
focus. In the summer months, the sea can be crossed with relative
ease.
A Cheap Ticket to
Europe
Migrant smugglers
are quick to change routes in response to political policy shifts.
Should the traffic get backed up in one area, as in Greece at the
moment, other routes are promoted over social media channels.
Recently, that has included the Mediterranean crossing from Libya or
Egypt to the Italian island of Lampedusa.
Intelligence
agencies are warning that hundreds of thousands of people are now
waiting in North Africa for their chance to flee across the sea.
Particularly from Libya, the dream of Europe looks closer than ever
before: The often inadequately equipped boats put to sea by the
migrant smugglers must only leave Libyan territorial waters 12
nautical miles from shore before sending out a distress call. Ships
patrolling the waters of the southern Mediterranean as part of the EU
operation Sophia must then collect them in accordance with
international maritime law. Since September, some 13,000 migrants
have been brought to EU territory as a result of this tactic.
Recently, Austrian
Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz warned of the procedure, calling it a
cheap "ticket to Europe." At a meeting in Luxembourg a week
ago Monday, he and his EU counterparts offered assistance to the
largely powerless Libyan prime minister to build up a coast guard.
The reality, though, is that as long as the Libyan authorities refuse
to grant EU ships permission to patrol Libyan territorial waters in
their efforts to combat smugglers, the surge of migrants heading for
Europe will not abate.
In March alone,
Italy registered 9,676 refugee arrivals -- four times more than in
March 2015. Even more alarming, refugees from Syria and Afghanistan
-- groups that have been most affected by the closure of the Balkan
Route -- haven't yet returned to the path across the central
Mediterranean. Currently, the migrants arriving in Italy mostly come
from Nigeria, Gambia, Senegal and Guinea, despite the fact that their
asylum applications are likely to be rejected, as is the case for
most of those coming from Africa. Less than 30 percent of asylum
applicants from Nigeria or Mali, for example, can expect to have
their asylum applications approved in the EU.
In its report "Risk
Analysis 2016," published earlier this month, Frontex wrote:
"The challenge here is to increase the ratio between return
decisions and effective returns in line with the EU return policy."
In other words, migrants whose asylum applications are rejected must
be quickly deported. The report notes that prospective migrants are
aware of the low probability of being sent back home and know about
how easy it is to travel within Europe's border-free Schengen area.
It is well known in Africa that those who manage to make it to Europe
can usually stay.
Demands for Migrant
Bonds
A position paper the
Italian government submitted to the European Commission in mid-April
likewise makes that case that the migrant debate has focused too much
on war refugees. "Flows through the Central/Western
Mediterranean route are composed mainly by economic migrants,"
the paper notes, adding that the challenge is expected to last for
decades.
Around 1.2 billion
people currently live on the African continent, a number that will
likely more than double by 2050, according to UN projections. That is
one reason why Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's government in
Rome is demanding that the EU offer African countries both funding
and cooperation on security issues. In a letter to the EU, Renzi also
made clear what he expects in return: Financial aid, he wrote, should
only be provided to those African countries that are prepared to
reaccept asylum-seekers whose applications are rejected by European
countries.
Thus far, the
European Commission has earmarked €9.2 billion to address the
refugee crisis for the years 2015 and 2016. At the EU summit on June
28, European leaders plan to consider whether more money is needed.
To the annoyance of the German government, Rome has proposed the
issuing of "migrant bonds," which would allow Italy and
Greece to raise additional funds. The bonds would be backed in part
by Germany.
Italy is feeling the
pressure. With its 7,600 kilometers (4,720 miles) of coastline and
islands off the coast of North Africa, it is virtually impossible for
the country to seal itself off. Furthermore, it will soon become more
difficult for migrants landing in Italy to travel onwards toward
northern Europe: Austria has begunbuilding a border fence on its
Alpine border with Austria at the Brenner Pass. Increased
identification checks are to be introduced starting on June 1.
The Swiss and the
French have likewise increased vigilance on their borders with Italy
on the lookout for unregistered migrants. The fact that many migrants
travel through Libya, where Islamic State controls hundreds of
kilometers of coastline, has made many nervous, particularly since
the terror attacks in Paris in November 2015. There is concern that
terrorists could enter Europe disguised as refugees. Frontex has
warned that falsified Syrian passports present a significant problem.
In particular, Frontex noted in its 2016 risk report, "False
declarations of nationality are rife among nationals who are unlikely
to obtain asylum in the EU."
Closure
Italy's reception
facilities, currently holding 110,000 migrants, are already filled to
overflowing. Only very few rejected applicants are actually deported,
with many of them simply going underground. And with every day that
the weather improves and the sea becomes calmer, the number of new
arrivals increases. Italy may in fact be in the process of taking on
the role that had recently been reserved for Greece: that of bearing
the primary refugee burden for Europe.
If Austria now seeks
to reintroduce border controls on the Brenner Pass, then "we are
faced with the threat that Europe will die here. The Brenner is the
symbol of European unity," warns Arno Kompatscher, governor of
the Italian autonomous province of South Tyrol, in which the south
side of the pass is located. Prime Minister Renzi is also concerned
about conditions on Italy's northern border. But Renzi, who has made
three state visits to African countries since ascending to the
premiership in February 2014, is also casting his gaze toward where
the possible roots of the next refugee crisis are to be found. "If
we want to fight poverty (and) uproot terrorism," says Renzi,
"Africa is our priority today."
Recently, the
Italian prime minister sent a message that he takes his own rhetoric
seriously. At almost exactly the same time as news of the most recent
Mediterranean disaster hit the headlines, Renzi sent three Italian
naval ships to a site 130 nautical miles south of Lampedusa. Their
mission is to recover the fishing boat that sank there one year ago,
together with the up to 600 dead Africans on board.
Autopsies are then
to be performed at the NATO base in Melilli -- in the hopes of
identifying the dead and providing their families with closure.
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