Angela
Merkel’s Turkey trip highlights risk of deal
The
chancellor’s visit allows Erdoğan to show that Europe’s leaders
are at his bid and call.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG AND JACOPO BARIGAZZI 4/22/16, 8:59 PM CET Updated
4/22/16, 9:58 PM CET
BERLIN — When
Ankara first suggested Angela Merkel and Donald Tusk lead a European
delegation to some refugee sites in Turkey, both Brussels and Berlin
saw it as a chance to showcase the progress the two sides have made
in implementing the the EU-Turkey migration pact.
Instead of a good
photo opportunity, however, the visit has turned into a PR nightmare.
Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s legal pursuit of German comedian Jan
Böhmermann, whom he accuses of defaming him on national television,
has refocused public attention across Europe on the Turkish leader’s
crackdown on media freedom and free speech at home. Reports from
human rights agencies assailing Turkey’s treatment of refugees have
added to the public’s qualms.
“There is no
photo-op that can obscure the deep flaws in the EU-Turkey deal. What
Angela Merkel really needs to bring back from Turkey are not smiling
photos, but cast-iron guarantees that the Turkish authorities will
stop sending refugees back to their countries of origin and start
implementing its asylum laws effectively,” said John Dalhuisen,
Amnesty International’s director for Europe and Central Asia.
Merkel, whose
approval was necessary for Erdoğan’s case against the comedian to
proceed, has come under intense criticism in Germany for agreeing.
Critics say her acquiescence reflects how desperate the German leader
is to keep the refugee deal alive.
Saturday’s trip,
dismissed as “a farce” by one German commentator Friday,
represents just the latest in a series of concessions Merkel has made
to Turkey. Though Merkel won’t meet with Erdoğan, the fact that
she is traveling to Turkey for just a few hours Saturday, hosted by
his prime minister, allows the president to show that Europe’s
leaders are at his bid and call.
That the Turkey trip
falls just a day before U.S. President Barack Obama arrives in
Germany to meet with Merkel only bolsters Erdoğan’s boast.
Payback time
Late Friday, Merkel
acknowledged that she had made some mistakes in her handling of the
Böhmermann affair, but defended her decision on the legal case.
Merkel regards
Turkey as the key to limiting the number of refugees arriving in
Europe and has been wooing Ankara since last fall.
But Erdoğan’s
disregard for what most Europeans consider to be basic democratic
standards has left many asking whether the EU paid too high a price
in its in deal with Ankara.
Under the agreement,
Turkey agreed to help stem the flow of refugees arriving in Europe in
exchange for money and visa-free travel for Turkish citizens in the
EU. As criticism of the deal intensified this week, Turkish leaders
were blunt in reminding their partners that, in Erdoğan’s words,
“the Europe Union needs Turkey more than Turkey needs the European
Union.”
Prime Minister Ahmet
Davutoğlu warned that Turkey would not fulfill its end of the
refugee bargain if Europe didn’t agree to visa liberalization by
June.
“These pledges are
mutual,” he said. “If the EU does not take the necessary steps,
it would be unthinkable for Turkey to do so.”
Such statements have
convinced some in Berlin and Brussels that Erdoğan is simply toying
with them. The Turkish leader never forgave Europe, and especially
Merkel, for thwarting his ambition a decade ago to take the country
into the EU. Now, they say, he is relishing the chance he has been
given for payback.
Before the refugee
crisis, Merkel’s only encounter with Erdoğan in Turkey in recent
years was a brief and awkward lunch that strictly followed protocol.
Saturday’s visit will mark her third trip there since last fall.
For his part,
Erdoğan appears not to miss any chance to further humiliate his
European counterparts. Just a couple days ago, Turkish authorities
detained a journalist with German public television upon arrival at
Istanbul’s airport, supposedly because he didn’t have proper
accredidation. Merkel, appearing before reporters the same day, could
do little but offer a mealy-mouthed statement. “Naturally we view
the situation with a certain concern,” she said. The reporter was
later sent back to Cairo.
The episode recalled
the crackdown on Zaman, Turkey’s largest newspaper, just minutes
after Tusk concluded a visit with the country’s leaders last month
to discuss the refugee crisis. In Brussels, the move was seen as a
taunt.
European values
Tusk tried to
address misgivings about the Turkey trip in an op-ed that appeared in
a number of European newspapers on Friday. “Recent experience with
Turkey shows that Europe must set clear limits to its concessions,”
he wrote. “We can negotiate money but never our values.”
But that’s exactly
what many Germans accuse Merkel of doing.
Some 80 percent of
Germans think the chancellor has made too many concessions to
Erdoğan, according to a poll for German public television released
Friday. The same percentage does not think Turkey is a reliable
partner.
More than 60 percent
of Germans believe Merkel handled the affair with the comedian
poorly, according to the same poll. Her approval rating has dropped
by more than half since the beginning of April.
A number of
commentators accused Merkel of kowtowing to the Turkish leader.
The German leader’s
political calculation appears to be that in the long term, Germans
will care more about keeping refugee numbers down than Erdogan’s
respect for democatic freedoms.
She’s probably
right. The case against the comedian, Böhmermann, has already
disappeared from the headlines. A decision by Germany’s plodding
jucial system on the merits of the case could take years.
Even so, Merkel’s
Saturday trip to Turkey illustrates how difficult it is to strike a
balance between protecting German and European interests and
appeasing a leader many consider a dictator.
In between photo-ops
and visits to EU-funded refugee projects, Merkel will likely face
tough questions from the press about Turkey’s treatment of
journalists and anyone who disagrees with Erdoğan.
Visa deal
Even if the
chancellor manages to dodge the questions, the refugee deal will face
a series of difficult challenges in the coming weeks and months.
Erdoğan’s recent
actions have hardened opposition in the European Parliament and many
national capitals to granting Turkey visa liberalization. Among the
catalogue of requirements Ankara must fufill is a stipulation that
the country respect “the right to a fair trial and freedom of
expression.”
Given Erdoğan’s
recent track record, it’s difficult to see how Europe’s leaders
could argue that Turkey meets that test.
A more immediate
threat to the deal is getting it to work on the ground. While Turkish
efforts to keep refugees from reaching Greece seem to be effective,
the second phase of the program has yet to be fully tested. About
7,500 refugees have landed in Greece since the deal took effect last
month. Under the agreement, those people will be sent back, after
registration and a cursory review of their asylum application.
In exchange, Turkey
will send an equal number of Syrian refugees back to Europe. Turkey
is expected to send about 1,100 refugees per month.
For the plan to
work, EU countries have to show they are willing to resettle up to
72,000 Syrians. That remains an explosive issue in many capitals.
Depsite the urgency, countries have yet to agree on a definitive
framework on how many Syrians they will take in each month.
In Brussels,
officials worry that a failure to reach an agreement soon could
provide Erdoğan with another reason not to honor Turkey’s
commitments under the agreement.
Authors:
Matthew Karnitschnig
and Jacopo Barigazzi
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