Germany’s far right set to gain ground beyond its eastern strongholds

 

Germany’s far right set to gain ground beyond its eastern strongholds

 

Ahead of a Sunday election in the western state of Baden-Württemberg, Alternative for Germany is capitalizing on rising economic anxiety.

 

March 6, 2026 4:00 am CET

By Ferdinand Knapp and Nette Nöstlinger

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-far-right-gains-ground-beyond-eastern-strongholds/

 

STUTTGART — In this cradle of Germany’s automotive sector, anxiety is growing over the industry’s fading heyday — and the far right stands ready to capitalize.

 

Germans in Baden-Württemberg — a southwestern state of some 11 million people that is home to Mercedes-Benz and Porsche — will go to the polls on Sunday in the first in a series of five important state elections and numerous local votes this year.

 

The elections, in what Germans are dubbing a Superwahljahr (“super election year”), are widely seen as key tests of the national mood as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) competes for first place in national polls with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives.

 

While much attention has been paid to the AfD’s ascent in the former East Germany — where it is far ahead in polling ahead of two state elections in the region set for September — the party’s rising national popularity is due largely to the inroads it is making in the more populous western part of the country. That includes Baden-Württemberg, where the AfD is set to nearly double its support and come in a strong third behind the conservatives and the Greens, according to the polls.

 

This could well establish the state as the far right’s most powerful base outside its traditional bastions in eastern Germany, illustrating how the AfD has been able to seize on rising economic anxiety to broaden its appeal.

 

During the campaign in the lead-up to the vote, one of the AfD’s national party leaders, Alice Weidel, appeared in front of Mercedes-Benz’s biggest factory, outside Stuttgart, alongside the party’s top candidate in the state, Markus Frohnmaier, with the clear intention of drawing on the growing anxiety of workers in the auto industry. 

 

“All these people are coming in and out, the employees, and they fear for their jobs,” Weidel said in an online video post. “Jobs are being cut here. Production is being scaled back. Why? Because the costs are too high here. And these costs are political and self-inflicted.”

 

That message is proving increasingly effective in a state where half a million jobs are connected to the automotive industry, according to data from the state’s economy ministry. But increasing competition from China and a belated shift to electric vehicles has taken a toll, and carmakers are shedding jobs.

 

Recent major layoffs in the industry include car supplier Bosch, which announced plans to cut 20,000 jobs by 2030, and Mercedes-Benz, which is offering severance packages to around 40,000 employees as part of a cost-cutting effort. Overall, around 100,000 positions or around 8 percent of jobs in the car sector are expected to disappear by 2030 in Germany, according to a 2025 study carried out for the economy ministry in Berlin.

 

Rising anxiety

Despite the AfD’s rise, the composition of Baden-Württemberg’s current government isn’t likely to change all that much following the election.

 

Currently the state is governed by the Greens — who are decidedly more popular and more conservative in the state than elsewhere in the country — in coalition with Merz’s Christian Democrats. While the latter may well take first this time around, with polls showing they have a slight lead, they are likely to maintain their coalition with the second-place Greens.

 

But no party has gained as much as the AfD — now polling at around 19 percent support in Baden-Württemberg — and that’s a worrying sign for centrist politicians in a state that has long been known for its affluence and high standard of living.

 

The AfD is also expected to perform relatively well in Bavaria’s local elections this Sunday. The party could triple its support to 14 percent, according to the latest poll, making it the largest party behind the state’s long-dominant conservatives, who lead with 33 percent.

 

While the AfD has long been a one-issue party with an anti-immigration message, it is increasingly attacking mainstream parties for Germany’s manufacturing decline. In Baden-Württemberg the approach appears to be gaining traction, as support for the party is being driven by fear the future will not be as bright as the past, experts say.

 

“Due to inflation, large sections of the population have the feeling that they work their whole lives, and these low wages, low pensions are what they are left with,” said opinion pollster Klaus-Peter Schöppner from Mentefactum. That resentment, he added, often mixes with the perception that immigrants come to Germany and “get everything for free.”

 

Such anxieties were evident one recent afternoon as workers left the Mercedes Benz factory outside Stuttgart and hurried to their cars. Many said the mood inside was increasingly grim as the company sheds jobs — though they refused to give their names for fear of upsetting their employer.

 

One man leaving the building said his top concerns were migration and the economy. Asked which party he’ll support in the vote Sunday, he replied: “I won’t tell you. But you can guess.”

 

The AfD’s top candidate in the state, Frohnmaier, has repeatedly seized on the notion that mainstream parties have destroyed past glory days.

 

“This promise that anyone who works hard will eventually own their own house or apartment, that you can perhaps work for the same company in the same business for 30 or 40 years, simply no longer exists,” said Frohnmaier in an online interview with a right-wing influencer last month.

 

“For a long time, people could say: my house, my garden, my car, and my vacation. And if you had those four things, you were pretty apolitical. And now, suddenly, that no longer works.”

 

That poses a challenge to Germany’s conservatives, who have long believed the best way to stop the AfD’s rise is to crack down on immigration, thereby removing the party’s core issue.

 

But many now see a new front opening in their struggle to stop the far right: the economy.

 

“We will not be able to stop the AfD’s current rise or reverse it if the economic situation in the country does not change,” said Yannick Bury, a conservative national lawmaker from Baden-Württemberg.