Don’t despair over the Senate: a new voting
rights law has never been closer
David Litt
The For the People Act was never going to pass on the
first try. Here’s why the vote marked a step forward
‘The important question has never been whether the For
the People Act will win over 10 Republicans. The question is whether 50
Democrats can be convinced to end or alter the filibuster.’
Thu 24 Jun 2021 13.19 BST
This week,
the For the People Act – the most sweeping voting-rights legislation in more
than 50 years – came before the United States Senate, a place known, especially
to itself, as “world’s greatest deliberative body”. Yet Republican senators
refused to even debate the measure. Despite having the support of every member
of the Democratic majority – a group of 50 senators that represents 40 million
more constituents than their Republican counterparts – the bill failed to reach
the 60-vote threshold for breaking a filibuster. It didn’t even come close.
Given the
stakes, it’s hardly surprising that some have rushed to portray For the People
Act’s failure to pass the Senate as a political setback, a strategic misstep,
or a presidency-defining blunder.
To understand why American democracy still has a
fighting chance, it’s important to consider three major developments
But such
doomsday thinking ignores the big picture. Of course democracy advocates are
disappointed – in theory, the Senate just blew a big chance to protect the
republic from the greatest onslaught of authoritarianism the United States has
ever faced. In practice, however, no voting-rights bill was ever going to pass
the Senate on the first try. The important question has never been whether the
For the People Act will win over 10 Republicans. The question is whether 50
Democrats can be convinced to end or alter the filibuster and then pass the For
the People Act via a simple majority vote.
Seen
through this lens, this week’s vote was a step forward, not backward. Major
voting-rights legislation has never been closer to becoming law.
To
understand why American democracy still has a fighting chance – and
better-than-ever odds of prevailing – it’s important to consider three major
developments, none of which was guaranteed when Democrats took the Senate with
the slimmest of majorities six months ago.
The first
is that, despite President Trump’s attempt to overturn a legitimate election,
his party’s unwillingness to stop him, and a well-funded campaign to turn
voters against the For the People Act, democracy remains popular with the American
people. According to one recent poll, 71% of Americans believe in-person early
voting should be made easier, 69% support establishing national guidelines for
voting, and a majority support expanding vote-by-mail as well.
Thanks to a
smart compromise proposal from Senator Joe Manchin, Democrats have even robbed
Republicans of their one popular (if disingenuous) talking point in the debate
over elections: support for voter ID. Mitch McConnell, the Koch political
organization, and their conservative allies were hoping to turn voting rights
into a political liability for Democrats, thus encouraging their members to
drop the subject. Instead, the opposite has occurred. Continuing the fight to
protect democracy is the right thing to do – and for Democratic senators, it’s
the politically sensible thing to do as well.
The moral
and political case for protecting democracy has only been made more urgent by
Republican overreach since the election. This wasn’t inevitable. In the wake of
a closer-than-expected presidential race, and surprising strength in the House,
state and local Republicans could have decided to appeal to moderate voters and
enjoy their existing structural advantages, such as a rightwing majority on the
supreme court and a large head start in the 2020 round of redistricting.
Instead,
Republicans doubled down on Trump’s authoritarian impulses. According to the
Brennan Center for Justice, 389 bills restricting voting have been put forward
in 48 states. These bills go far beyond previous voter suppression efforts,
ensuring lengthy, public court battles and risking a backlash. Already,
voting-restriction laws such as the one passed in Georgia have proven so
audacious and so egregious that some of America’s largest corporations – who
are rarely keen to criticize the GOP’s top priorities – have come out against
them.
In the face of threats that would have been
unimaginable just a few years ago, Americans may yet save their democracy
The
business community lending its support to voting rights, even in the abstract,
has in turn given on-the-fence Democrats more room to maneuver. West Virginia’s
Manchin, one of the filibuster’s most ardent defenders, joined voting-rights
negotiations by proposing a version of the For the People Act he believes ought
to receive substantial bipartisan support – and strongly implying he’ll consider
reforming the filibuster if his proposal does not receive the support he thinks
it deserves. Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema, another filibuster holdout, has signaled
a willingness to debate the Senate’s 60-vote threshold, even as she defends it.
That leaves open the possibility that she may, eventually, support some kind of
reform.
Even some
Republicans have inched, however slowly and subtly, toward supporting voting
rights. While the Alaska senator Lisa Murkowski didn’t vote to break the
filibuster against the For the People Act, she went out of her way to say that
she supported certain key aspects of the bill. If the filibuster were no longer
an impediment – if democracy advocates were trying to get to 51 rather than 61
– Murkowski’s vote would probably be in play. As recently as 4 January, when
Republicans seemed likely to hold the Senate, the idea of a sweeping,
bipartisan bill to end voter suppression and expand voting rights seemed wildly
far-fetched. Today, it’s distinctly possible.
Of course,
just because something is possible does not make it likely. Democrats are
racing against the clock. Campaign season will soon be upon us. Given the age
of many in their caucus, there’s a chance Democrats’ Senate majority will be
cut grimly short by a premature retirement or death. Manchin, Sinema and other
lawmakers hoping to be prodded toward progress risk being too clever by half.
But on the
other hand, the slow-but-steady approach might just work – if activists
continue to apply public pressure; if state-level GOP politicians continue to
egregiously attack the vote; if public attention remains focused on the health
of our democracy; if 50 Democrats reach a compromise that preserves the
filibuster while allowing life-and-death legislation to pass. None of these
things is certain to happen. But none of them is outside the realm of
possibility. And all of them are more likely in the wake of this week’s vote.
The path
we’re on will never bring the sweeping, triumphant, day-one change that
Democrats like me hoped for in the weeks before the election. But, in the face
of threats that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago, Americans
may yet save their democracy. And saving democracy would be more than good
enough.
David Litt
is a former Obama speechwriter and New York Times bestselling author, and
writes the newsletter How Democracy Lives
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