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How to watch the Brexit vote like a pro
Theresa May is widely expected to lose the vote on the
Brexit deal agreed with Brussels.
By CHARLIE
COOPER AND DAVID M. HERSZENHORN 1/14/19,
6:00 PM CET Updated 1/15/19, 8:04 AM CET
LONDON — The big Brexit vote is upon us and all bets are on
Theresa May's deal being rejected by MPs. That will trigger days and weeks of
Westminster horse-trading over how, when and maybe even whether the U.K. leaves
the EU.
Here's your guide on how to watch the fiendishly complicated
political bust-up play out:
When will the vote happen?
The vote, rescheduled from its original date of December 11,
will take place on Tuesday, January 15, most likely at around 7 p.m. local time
or shortly thereafter. Exact timings will depend on proceedings in the House of
Commons. A further postponement of the vote at this stage looks unlikely.
Is it just one vote?
It is very likely there will also be votes, in advance of
the main one, on amendments to the government motion. How significant these are
depends on which amendments are selected. Some amendments, if passed, could be
so-called wrecking amendments, which effectively supersede the vote on the main
question. Senior Labour MP Hilary Benn’s amendment, which would reject the deal
and rule out no-deal, would probably fall into this category.
Other amendments, such as one put forward by Conservative MP
Andrew Murrison proposing that the deal is approved “subject to a legal codicil
being added to the Withdrawal Agreement Treaty which specifies that the
backstop solution shall expire on 31 December 2022,” could place conditions on
the vote. Much will depend on which amendments Speaker John Bercow selects to
be voted on.
What happens if MPs back the deal?
If MPs back the deal (most observers think this is highly
unlikely given the large numbers of MPs who have come out against it) its
parliamentary journey is effectively over. The House of Lords only gets to
debate the motion and doesn’t have a vote. Once the U.K. side of the
ratification process is complete, the European Parliament must approve the deal
before it is finalized.
If that hurdle is cleared (and most expect it would be) then
the deal would come into force when the U.K. leaves the EU on March 29, and
immediately enters a standstill transition period lasting 21 months, with the
option to extend for "up to one or two years," as per the text of the
Withdrawal Agreement.
In a word: uncertainty. Under the terms of the amendment put
down by Tory backbencher Dominic Grieve last week, May must return to the House
of Commons with an alternative motion within three sitting days (that's Monday
next week) setting out what she plans to do next. In the ordinary run of things
this motion would not automatically be amendable, but Speaker John Bercow has
shown his willingness to upturn parliamentary convention, so this could be the
moment that MPs begin putting forward alternative Brexit plans for indicative
votes.
What will Labour do?
The Labour opposition has committed itself to putting
forward a motion of no confidence in the government if the vote on May’s deal
is lost. Leader Jeremy Corbyn has been coy about precisely when this will be
but there have been reports that MPs have been told to expect it within hours
of defeat, and for the vote to be held on Wednesday.
If the deal is voted down, a delay to Brexit looks
increasingly likely.
A no-confidence vote requires a simple majority, and if
passed it will trigger a 14-day period during which Labour, or in theory any
other collective of MPs, have the opportunity to try and form a government that
can win a confidence vote in parliament. If after 14 days no party has won a
confidence vote, an election must be held. However, few expect the government
to lose the original no confidence vote, as Brexiteer Tories and the Democratic
Unionist Party, who back May's government in a confidence-and-supply
arrangement, are not likely to open the door to a Corbyn government.
There is talk of parliament ‘taking control.’ What does that
mean?
If the deal is voted down, a small group of senior MPs plan
to amend the government’s motion next week, in a way that could change House of
Commons convention, giving backbench MPs more power to bring forward motions
setting out the business of the Commons — and thus seizing control of the
Brexit agenda.
Tory MP Nick Boles said the amendment would, if passed next
week, allow May three weeks to find a compromise plan that could secure a
majority in the Commons. If she cannot, responsibility for doing this would
pass to the liaison committee of chairs of House of Commons committees. The
committee includes an eclectic mix of party and Brexit opinion.
What about a second referendum?
This would remain an option, but is one that would probably
come from MPs. May has repeatedly, in very strong terms, stated her opposition
to such an outcome and is unlikely to suggest it as a compromise, unless it
were a simple choice between her deal and no deal. She would, however, have to
present that plan sure in the knowledge that MPs would try to amend it to add a
"Remain" option.
Will Article 50 need to be extended (and Brexit delayed)?
If the deal is voted down, a delay to Brexit looks
increasingly likely.
All of the scenarios set out above would require more time
than the legally enshrined exit date of March 29 and since there is no majority
in the House of Commons for no deal, one way or another it is likely the U.K.
will play for more time. Even if May does not call for it herself, MPs could
attempt to force the prime minister's hand.
An extension of Article 50 would require the unanimous
backing of the EU27 member countries. This is likely to be forthcoming, at
least until July when the new European Parliament sits for the first time.
Beyond that it would be more complicated, requiring a discussion about
financial commitments and the continuing role, or otherwise, of British MEPs.
But it could potentially be negotiable.
Anti-Brexit supporter "Robocop" checks his mobile
phone during break from demonstrating outside the Houses of Parliament in
London on January 14, 2019 | Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images
What would the EU do if the deal is voted down?
The EU27 are proceeding with ratification on their side, so
that theoretically the U.K. could approve the existing deal at any point right
up until the March 29 deadline. Most immediately, they intend to adopt a
wait-and-see approach, expecting a rejection of the deal would unleash
unpredictable developments in London.
The EU27 have said consistently that if the U.K.'s red lines
change then another deal could be possible. If the U.K. comes back simply
asking for more concessions, EU leaders would have to break their mantra that
the current deal cannot be renegotiated. The EU27 have indicated they would
consider an extension of the March 29 withdrawal deadline if the U.K. offers
justification for the postponement — in order to hold a second referendum, for
instance, or a new national election.
This article is from POLITICO Pro: POLITICO’s premium policy
service. To discover why thousands of professionals rely on Pro every day,
email pro@politico.eu for a complimentary trial.
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