quarta-feira, 16 de janeiro de 2019

Brexit: parliament rejects Theresa May's deal



Theresa May suffers historic defeat in vote as Tories turn against her
PM faces vote of confidence after MPs reject her Brexit plan by majority of 230
Heather Stewart and Daniel Boffey

Wed 16 Jan 2019 07.23 GMT First published on Tue 15 Jan 2019 22.28 GMT

Theresa May has pledged to face down a vote of no confidence in her government, after her Brexit deal was shot down by MPs in the heaviest parliamentary defeat of the democratic era.

On a day of extraordinary drama at Westminster, the House of Commons delivered a devastating verdict on the prime minister’s deal, voting against it by 432 to 202.

The scale of defeat, by a majority of 230, was greater than any seen in the past century, with ardent Brexiters such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson walking through a packed division lobby cheek-by-jowl alongside passionate remainers.


As noisy protesters from both sides of the Brexit divide massed outside in Parliament Square, the prime minister immediately rose to accept the verdict of MPs – saying she would welcome a vote of no confidence in the government.

“The house has spoken and the government will listen,” she said. “It is clear that the house does not support this deal, but tonight’s vote tells us nothing about what it does support.”

In a raucous Commons, the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, confirmed he had tabled a formal motion of confidence in the government, backed by other opposition leaders, which MPs would vote on on Wednesday.

Corbyn told MPs: “This is a catastrophic defeat. The house has delivered its verdict on her deal. Delay and denial has reached the end of the line.”

The Brexit-backing European Research Group (ERG) and the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) later announced that they would support the prime minister, making it unlikely Labour could succeed in triggering a general election.

May said that if she survived the vote on Wednesday, she would hold meetings with senior parliamentarians from all parties to “identify what would be required to secure the backing of the house”.

The prime minister’s spokesman later said May would be contacting Conservative and DUP MPs among others , but declined to say whether or not she would meet with Corbyn or the SNP leader, Ian Blackford.

He cited the example of May’s meetings with Labour MPs such as Caroline Flint and Gareth Snell about an amendment on workers’ rights, although both of those MPs eventually voted against the government. “We will approach it in a constructive spirit,” the spokesman said.

May had no plans to head to Brussels immediately, No 10 said, implying that the prime minister first needed to test what would be acceptable to MPs.

Downing Street said May would approach the talks wanting to find a solution to deliver a Brexit deal that would honour the result of the referendum – suggesting she would not countenance talks with those pushing for a second referendum, or even a full customs union, which Labour has backed.

She would then make a statement on Monday, setting out how she intended to proceed. MPs would get the chance to amend the statement, and were likely to take the opportunity to try to demonstrate support for their own favoured alternatives – including a Norway-style soft Brexit, and a second referendum.

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Several cabinet ministers, including Amber Rudd, Philip Hammond and Greg Clark, had pressed the prime minister at Tuesday’s cabinet meeting to pursue a cross-party solution if her deal was defeated. But Brexit-backing ministers, including Andrea Leadsom and Penny Mordaunt, urged her instead to seek revisions to the Irish backstop – and failing that, to pursue a “managed no deal”.

The former foreign secretary Boris Johnson said the crushing defeat gave the prime minister a “massive mandate” to return to Brussels and seek a better deal.

“We should not only be keeping the good bits of the deal, getting rid of the backstop, but we should also be actively preparing for no deal with ever more enthusiasm,” he said.

On Tuesday night Johnson was joined by other prominent Brexiter MPs, including John Redwood and Bill Cash, at a champagne celebration party at Rees-Mogg’s house.

Hammond moved quickly after the vote to quell business anger over the failure of May to get her deal ratified. The chancellor expressed his “disappointment” at the result in a conference call at 9pm with main business groups, including the CBI and the British Chambers of Commerce, as well as dozens of chief executives.

One source on the call said it was constructive and that Hammond’s tone was “realistic” about the damage prolonged uncertainty around Brexit was inflicting on the economy. However, Hammond was hammered by business leaders over parliament’s refusal to take a no-deal Brexit off the table. “This was the single biggest question he was asked,” said the source.

The Guardian view on May’s Brexit deal: it’s over, but what’s next?
 Read more
May said any plan that emerged from the talks would have to be “negotiable” with the EU27. She earlier rejected an amendment from the Tory backbencher Edward Leigh calling for the Irish backstop to be temporary, saying it was not compatible with the UK’s legal obligations.

In Brussels, Donald Tusk, the European council president, appeared to back a second referendum soon after the crushing result for the prime minister was announced, and urged her to offer a way forward.


Donald Tusk
@eucopresident
 If a deal is impossible, and no one wants no deal, then who will finally have the courage to say what the only positive solution is?

61.6K
8:40 PM - Jan 15, 2019

May was expected to return to Brussels within days to consult with Tusk and the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker. Officials said the EU was now in listening mode.

In a statement, Juncker urged the British government to “clarify its intentions as soon as possible”, and warned that “time is almost up”.

“I take note with regret the outcome of the vote in the House of Commons this evening”, he said. “On the EU side, the process of ratification of the withdrawal agreement continues”.

In a defence of Brussels’ role in the negotiations, Juncker said that the EU and the bloc’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, had shown “creativity and flexibility throughout” and “demonstrated goodwill again by offering additional clarifications and reassurances” in recent days.

He said: “The risk of a disorderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom has increased with this evening’s vote. While we do not want this to happen, the European commission will continue its contingency work to help ensure the EU is fully prepared.”

May, in Westminster earlier knowing that she faced a heavy defeat, made a heartfelt plea to MPs to support her, calling it “the most significant vote that any of us will ever be part of in our political careers”.

“Together we can show the people we serve that their voices have been heard, that their trust was not misplaced,” she said.

Earlier in the day, as one Conservative backbencher after another stood up to attack her painstakingly negotiated withdrawal agreement in the House of Commons, it became clear that few had changed their mind.

May had embarked on a last-ditch charm offensive on Tuesday, holding meetings with MPs including the ERG’s Steve Baker, who said the pair had held a “constructive and substantial conversation about the future”.

Corbyn, speaking just before the vote , saidMay had “treated Brexit as a matter for the Conservative party, rather than the good of the whole country”.

He called the government’s efforts to steer Brexit through parliament “one of the most chaotic and extraordinary parliamentary processes” he had experienced in 35 years as an MP. The attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, told his colleagues that if they did not accept the prime minister’s deal, they risked condemning the UK to the chaos of a no-deal Brexit.

“It would be the height of irresponsibility for any legislator to contemplate with equanimity such a situation,” he said.

Corbyn would come under intense pressure to throw his weight behind a second Brexit referendum if May wins on Wednesday; but his spokesman said Labour did not rule out tabling another no-confidence motion at a later stage.

Labour MPs were joined by 118 Conservative rebels in voting down the prime minister’s deal, including erstwhile loyalists such as the chair of the backbench 1922 committee, Graham Brady. That was one more than the number who had backed a no-confidence vote in May’s leadership of the Conservatives in December. Under party rules, the prime minister’s victory in that vote means she cannot be challenged for party leadership again within the next 12 


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After this staggering defeat for May, our country is left lost and adrift
Jonathan Freedland
The prime minister’s catalogue of errors led us to this point. Now we face paralysis and humiliation

 @Freedland
Tue 15 Jan 2019 20.39 GMT Last modified on Wed 16 Jan 2019 08.27 GMT

This was a defeat on a scale without precedent in the era of universal suffrage, a rebuff more humiliating than any endured even by Ramsay MacDonald in 1924. Some 118 Conservatives voted against the signature policy of their own party tonight, thereby triggering a motion of no confidence that, in any normal era, would see the government toppled within hours.

But such are these extraordinary times, that is not even the most significant story from tonight. What matters more than the fate of this government or this prime minister is the fate of the country and its decision to leave the European Union, which is now suspended in a state of limbo if not purgatory. The law says Britain will leave the EU in 70-odd days. Yet tonight it has rejected the only firm exit path that exists. It means that, unless something changes and MPs can reach an agreement with each other, Britain will crash out of the EU on 29 March without a deal – an outcome all but the most wild-eyed Brexiteers regard as an economic and social catastrophe for these islands.

The question everyone wants answered is what happens now. There’ll be a no-confidence vote tomorrow which, given the promised support of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionists and the hardcore Brexit group around Jacob Rees-Mogg, the government seems set to win, despite everything. Then Theresa May pledges to talk to “senior parliamentarians” of other parties to hear what they need in order to back her. But, speaking after the defeat, her spokesman suggested her Brexit red lines had not blurred and were not about to. Which makes it hard to see how any progress, let alone a breakthrough, is even conceivable.

So how did it come to this? What led May, parliament and the country to this moment?

The answer you give will depend on how far back you want to go. You could look to the snap election of 2017, when May threw away her majority, thereby leaving her at the mercy of a hung parliament, where Brexit lacked a majority just as surely as she did. As a simple matter of arithmetic, the defeat tonight was foretold on the night of 8 June 2017.

Jeremy Corbyn tables no-confidence motion after May defeat – as it happened
 Read more
Or you might go back a few months earlier, to the triggering of article 50, which started the clock ticking on a negotiation for which May was palpably not ready. The cabinet was too split between leavers and remainers to know its own mind. Only in the last few months of the two-year period did the UK have anything like a position.

Or you might say the die was cast much earlier, soon after May became prime minister and painted herself into a corner with a series of bright red lines. Once she had committed to leave the single market, customs union and jurisdiction of the European court of justice, and once she accepted that there could be no hard border in Ireland, then she had all but written the withdrawal agreement that MPs rejected tonight. The EU laws of physics dictated that there could be almost no other outcome.

Of course, May’s drawing of those red lines was itself the fruit of another choice, a political calculation that her best hope lay with placating the hardest Brexiteers in her party. She had seen how the Europhobic wing of British Conservatism had devoured so many of her predecessors, and concluded that her own safety required her to placate that faction. Only later did she learn what her predecessors could have told her: that the Europhobes’ demands can never be met because what they want – cake in both its having and eating modes – is impossible.

 This has been Britain’s European story, repeatedly seeing what was a project of peace as a scam designed to swindle the Brits of their money
In this she was repeating an error made by David Cameron in 2013, when he announced that there would be an in/out referendum before 2017. He, too, was seeking to placate the hard Brexiteers, seeking to blunt the appeal of Ukip. That was another fateful decision on the road to the vote tonight, one that failed to see that asking voters to approve the status quo in the post-crash era was asking to be punched hard in the face. Critical, too, was Cameron’s conduct of the referendum campaign, with its serial failures: its appeal to voters’ wallets rather than their hearts, its refusal to attack the Tory leaders of the leave campaign, its complacency.

But Cameron also deserves blame for the manner of his departure. Had he delayed his resignation, he could have been around to frame what the referendum result meant. He could have said, for example, that Britons had voted to leave the EU but had not voted to leave either the single market or customs union, since neither were on the ballot paper. Britons clearly wanted out of the EU’s political institutions, he might have said, but they had not rejected membership of the common market. And so he could have advanced a Norway-style Brexit, one that would have minimised the harm. Instead he fled the scene of his own crime, leaving a vacuum into which rival definitions of Brexit could rush. Within weeks of his exit, Brexit was redefined in the hardest terms.

All these decisions by May and Cameron laid the path to the vote tonight. But, in truth, the path is much longer and older. For at least three decades, “Europe” served as the all-purpose bogeyman of British politics. Cheered on by a Europeloathing press, itself fuelled by an endless flow of straight banana-type lies, many of them concocted by a Telegraph correspondent in Brussels by the name of Boris Johnson, politicians of all stripes found it convenient to blame Brussels for any and all ills.

How easy it was for British politicians to say they’d love to act on this or that issue, but their hands were tied by those villains in the EU. Every summit was a “showdown” pitting plucky Britain against the wicked continentals. Both of the main political parties played this game. Recall Gordon Brown’s reluctance to be photographed signing the Lisbon treaty. (In the end he signed the treaty in a small room, alone – an early metaphor for the Brexit to come.) Given how long, and how bitterly, the fight against Europe had been fought, what’s remarkable is not how few Britons voted remain in 2016 but how many.

Or you could go further back still. The Suez fiasco of 1956 was meant to have cured Britain of its imperial delusion, but what’s clear now is that many Britons never quite made that adjustment. Underpinning Brexit, with its belief that Britain should separate itself from its closest neighbours, is a refusal to accept that we are one part of an interdependent European economy. For the Brexiteers, Britain remains a global Gulliver tied down for too long by the Lilliputians of Little Europe. It is a fundamental misreading of our place in the world.

Perhaps, though, the seeds of the vote were planted in the rubble of Britain’s wartime experience. Never occupied, many Britons never understood the intense need for the EU as continental Europeans feel it. In 1984, at a ceremony to honour the fallen of Verdun, François Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl held hands, in a powerful gesture of Franco-German reconciliation. According to her biographer, Margaret Thatcher was unmoved, instead mocking the sight of two grown men holding hands.

This has been Britain’s European story, repeatedly seeing what was a project of peace, designed to end centuries of bloodshed, as a scam designed to swindle the Brits of their money. You can go further back, to repeated wars against the French, the Spanish and the Germans. Or you can go further back still to the first Brexit nearly five centuries ago, when Henry VIII sought to take back control by breaking from Rome.

Wherever you choose the starting point, the end point is clear enough. It ends like this, in the sight of a parliament paralysed by indecision, still unable to embrace Europe – but just as unable to break away. And in the spectacle of a country lost and adrift.

• Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist
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British politics goes over a cliff


Despite the defeat of historic proportions, the prime minister’s aides intend to resuscitate the Brexit deal.

By           TOM MCTAGUE               1/16/19, 2:08 AM CET Updated 1/16/19, 8:31 AM CET

Should May survive the attempt Wednesday to force a general election, she finds herself in a race against time to find a compromise package negotiable with Brussels | Leon Neal/Getty Images

LONDON — British politics is broken. It may not be fixable in time to solve the Brexit mess.

The U.K. wakes up Wednesday with a government unable to govern — in office, but without the numbers to fulfill its central purpose: a negotiated exit from the European Union.

A defeat of previously unimaginable proportions Tuesday — 432 to 202 — has left the country adrift, floating towards no deal, with no party or faction in parliament able to command a majority for any way of moving off the course it has set for itself. The only thing MPs can agree strongly on is a desire to avoid an economically damaging no deal, but they currently can't settle on a mechanism for how to do so.

Faced with disaster, Theresa May has a plan but no strategy — the Churchillian maxim, “Keep Buggering On.”

“KBO prime minister, KBO,” one loyal government minister urged her Tuesday in the House of Commons in the run up to the vote she knew she was going to lose. May smiled and nodded in agreement. Right now, it is all she’s got.


Drinkers watch Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May speak in the Houses of Parliament | Tolga Akmen/AFP via Getty Images

May’s aides are clear: She is not giving up on her deal, despite the scale of the defeat. And she’s not quitting.

The game is now an even more intense fight for survival from one day to the next in the hope that something — anything — changes, but with little hope that it will.

Britain is now entering a period of rolling, daily crises with no obvious way out, its political class unable — or unwilling — to reach a compromise way to leave the European Union. Remainers and Brexiteers alike are convinced that voting against the prime minister’s Withdrawal Agreement takes them closer to their own desired outcome.

One side is making a miscalculation of historic proportions.

No confidence
The rolling crisis kicks off with a bang Wednesday with a vote of no confidence in the government, which if successful will trigger a general election if no alternative government can be found within 14 days.

Despite shouts of “resign” from MPs Tuesday, however, May made clear she has no intention of quitting. Instead she intends to fight to stay in power. “KBO.”

Should she survive the vote, which will take place at 7 p.m. Wednesday — and every indication is that she will — May will find herself back in the same trap of her own making: a prime minister without power.

Out of the mess, however, two things did change Tuesday night, which MPs believe signal the direction of travel May now intends to take to avoid Britain leaving the European Union without a deal on March 29.

In her statement to parliament after the crushing result of the vote was announced, for the first time May formally reached out to leading opposition MPs.

“It is clear that the House does not support this deal,” May told MPs. “But tonight’s vote tells us nothing about what it does support. Nothing about how — or even if — it intends to honor the decision the British people took in a referendum parliament decided to hold.”

The fury among MPs is that it has taken this long to reach this point.

May said if she survived Wednesday's attempt to force her government from power, she would work to find a compromise “genuinely negotiable” with Brussels.

In other words, unless the Brexiteers revise their expectations, May will be forced to look to Labour for compromises.

If a compromise can be found, May will take it to Brussels. In a briefing to journalists Tuesday night, May’s spokesman said the government would table a motion on its next steps on Monday next week before holding a vote on this new plan “quickly” afterwards — likely sometime that week.

The fury among MPs is that it has taken this long to reach this point.

Former No. 10 policy chief George Freeman, who reluctantly backed the deal, said the only way from here was to a softer Brexit. “Tonight the hardline Brexiteers think they have made no deal more likely, but actually what they have done is make no Brexit more likely or a much softer Brexit. You couldn’t make it up.”


"People's Vote" supporters dance and listen to speeches during a demonstration in Parliament Square on January 15 | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

However, he cast doubt on whether May was able to build a compromise deal with Labour. "The real question,” he said, was “is [Theresa May] able and really willing to reach out and do what for two and a half years she has absolutely refused to do, which is build a cross-party consensus. And will they trust her to do that?”

The second big change announced by May Tuesday is that “no deal is better than a bad deal” has all but disappeared as government policy. Instead, May told MPs voters did not vote for no deal because they had been told an agreement would be easy to reach with Brussels.

Should May survive Wednesday's attempt to force a general election, she finds herself in a race against time to find a compromise package negotiable with Brussels.

Brussels also wants to know what might command a majority in parliament. “I want to know what kind of deal the House of Commons really wants,” the European Parliament's Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt asked.

"I urge the United Kingdom to clarify its intentions as soon as possible. Time is almost up” — European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker also called for clarity. "I urge the United Kingdom to clarify its intentions as soon as possible. Time is almost up,” he said.

Donald Tusk, the European Council leader, appeared to call for Brexit to be abandoned altogether. “If a deal is impossible, and no one wants no deal, then who will finally have the courage to say what the only positive solution is?” he said.

In Westminster, a lot more is now in play.

May’s spokesman said the prime minister could work with Labour MPs to bulk up guarantees on workers’ rights, as well as those across the House who wanted to find a way to rule out no deal.


British Prime Minister Theresa May leaves the Houses of Parliament after MPs voted against the government's Brexit deal | Ben Stansall/AFP via Getty Images

“We want to leave with a deal and will work with others who share that,” the spokesman said.

Behind the scenes, the government is weighing even more radical options. One idea floated by an influential government minister was to offer MPs a free vote — freeing MPs from voting on party lines. The idea is to bust open the party-political system to allow Labour MPs to back the deal. The Tory minister who spoke to POLITICO said Labour would feel compelled to follow the Tories if they gave their MPs a free vote, though Corbyn may have other ideas.

Despite the conciliatory tone, May’s advisers said the “principles” behind the government’s negotiating strategy would not be bargained away. The government wants to avoid no deal, while also guaranteeing an independent trade policy and U.K. control over its “money, borders and laws.”

May’s aides also said she was still determined to leave on March 29.

Talks with opposition MPs will begin Thursday, the aides said.

Despite the scale of the defeat Tuesday, May and her most senior Cabinet colleagues and advisers appear to believe it can be resuscitated.

A motion will then be tabled Monday setting out the government’s next steps. This motion will be amendable, giving MPs the chance to test out alternative options, from a second referendum, super-soft “Norway”-style exit or a permanent customs union. Right now, none appears to have majority support in the House of Commons.

Despite the scale of the defeat Tuesday — which Labour said had left the proposed exit deal “dead” — May and her most senior Cabinet colleagues and advisers appear to believe it can be resuscitated.

In the House of Commons before the vote, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told MPs: “This Withdrawal Agreement will have to return in much the same form, with much the same content. Therefore, there is no serious or credible objection that has been advanced by any party to the Withdrawal Agreement.”

May wrapped up her remarks after the defeat with a promise to voters that she had not given up. “The government has heard what the House has said tonight, but I ask members on all sides of the House to listen to the British people, who want this issue settled, and to work with the government to do just that.”

In other words: May is buggering on.

This article is from POLITICO Pro: POLITICO’s premium policy service. To discover why thousands of professionals rely on Pro every day, email pro@politico.eu for a complimentary trial.


“Nunca o risco de um não acordo pareceu tão elevado”, alerta negociador da UE para o Brexit
Vasco Gandra, em Bruxelas
9:11

"Nenhum cenário pode ser excluído", incluindo, "o de um não acordo". "Hoje, a dez semanas, nunca o risco de um não acordo pareceu tão elevado", alerta Michel Barnier no Parlamento Europeu.
Com o processo do Brexit mergulhado numa total incerteza após o chumbo do acordo no Parlamento britânico, o chefe da equipa de negociadores da União Europeia, Michel Barnier, deixa esta quarta-feira o alerta: “Nunca o risco de um não acordo pareceu tão elevado”.


No dia seguinte ao voto histórico nos Comuns, Michel Barnier participou esta manhã num debate sobre o Brexit na sessão plenária do Parlamento Europeu, em Estrasburgo.

“No momento em que vos falo nenhum cenário pode ser excluído, isso é sobretudo verdade em relação ao cenário que sempre quisemos evitar, o de um não acordo. Hoje é 16 de janeiro, estamos a dez semanas apenas do fim do mês de março. Ou seja, do momento escolhido pelo Governo britânico para se tornar um país terceiro. E hoje, a dez semanas, nunca o risco de um não acordo pareceu tão elevado”, afirmou o francês.

No momento em que vos falo nenhum cenário pode ser excluído, isso é sobretudo verdade em relação ao cenário que sempre quisemos evitar, o de um não acordo.

Michel Barnier
Negociador da UE

A União Europeia vai intensificar os trabalhos de preparação para todos os cenários, incluindo o de uma saída desordenada do Reino Unido da UE.

Michel Barnier afirmou ainda que cabe ao Reino Unido clarificar quais são os próximos passos a dar neste processo.

(Notícia em atualização)

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