quinta-feira, 17 de janeiro de 2019

Brexit: Theresa May wins no confidence vote



Theresa May survives vote, but Britain remains in Brexit deadlock

Prime minister invites party leaders to discuss alternative deal but sticks to red lines

Heather Stewart, Jessica Elgot and Peter Walker

Thu 17 Jan 2019 00.50 GMT First published on Wed 16 Jan 2019 19.16 GMT
https://www.theguardian.com/…/mays-government-survives-no-c…

Theresa May has survived as prime minister after weathering a dramatic no-confidence vote in her government, but was left scrambling to strike a Brexit compromise that could secure the backing of parliament.

In a statement in Downing Street on Wednesday night, the prime minister exhorted politicians from all parties to “put aside self-interest”, and promised to consult with MPs with “the widest possible range of views” in the coming days.

It followed her announcement that she would invite Jeremy Corbyn and other party leaders for immediate talks on how to secure a Brexit deal, something she had declined to do earlier in the day, although Labour later said Corbyn would decline the invitation unless no-deal was taken off the table.

A day after overwhelmingly rejecting her Brexit deal, rebel Conservatives and Democratic Unionist party (DUP) MPs swung behind the prime minister to defeat Labour’s motion of no confidence by 325 votes to 306 – a majority of 19.

In her late-night statement, the prime minister said: “I am disappointed that the leader of the Labour party has not so far chosen to take part – but our door remains open … It will not be an easy task, but MPs know they have a duty to act in the national interest, reach a consensus and get this done.”

The Scottish National party’s leader in Westminster, Ian Blackford, met May on Wednesday night, and the Liberal Democrat leader, Vince Cable, also accepted her invitation.

Blackford later wrote to May, urging her to make a “gesture of faith” to show that she was serious. He said the SNP would take part in cross-party talks if she was able to confirm “that the extension of article 50, a ruling out of a no-deal Brexit and the option of a second EU referendum would form the basis of those discussions”.

With just five days to go before May must make a statement to parliament setting out her Brexit plan B, Downing Street continued to indicate that she was not ready to budge on her red lines, including membership of a customs union.

Conservative politicians are deeply divided about how May should adapt her deal to win over hostile MPs.

The South Cambridgeshire Tory MP, Heidi Allen, said: “I thought she was incredibly brave [after the Brexit defeat] and it felt like she got that we need to change. But today it was: ‘I’ll talk to people, but my red lines are still there.’ And that’s not going to work at all.

“Maybe the prime minister needs a little bit longer but she has got to reflect: stop pandering to the hard right of my party and start talking to those of us who have been working across parties for months. We’re a functioning, collaborative body already. She just needs to tap into us.”

Some cabinet ministers clearly indicated the need for flexibility. The justice secretary, David Gauke, warned that the government should not allow itself to be “boxed in”, and Amber Rudd suggested a customs union could not be ruled out.

Labour has not ruled out tabling further no-confidence votes in the days ahead, in the hope of peeling off exasperated Tory rebels and triggering a general election. But on Wednesday night other opposition parties sent a letter to Corbyn, which said they expected him to honour his promise to back a public vote if Labour failed to get an election.

A Lib Dem source suggested the party may not back future no confidence votes if it felt they were a way to evade the issue. “We will support any real opportunity to take down the Tories with relish. We will not be party to Corbyn using spurious means to avoid Labour policy, by pursuing unwinnable no-confidence votes,” the source said.

The DUP was quick to stress that without its 10 MPs, the government would have lost the confidence vote, and called on May to focus on tackling their concerns with the Irish backstop.

“Lessons will need to be learned from the vote in parliament. The issue of the backstop needs to be dealt with and we will continue to work to that end,” said Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader at Westminster.

May’s spokesman said a no-deal Brexit could not be ruled out. However, the Daily Telegraph claimed to have got hold of a recording of Philip Hammond speaking to business leaders on Tuesday night in which the chancellor said the threat of a no-deal could be taken “off the table” within days.

May’s spokesman suggested a customs union was not up for discussion: “We want to be able to do our own trade deals, and that is incompatible with either the or a customs union.”

After meeting party leaders, May is expected to extend the invitation to opposition backbenchers over the coming days, as well Tory Eurosceptics.

What are the alternatives to May's rejected Brexit deal?
Read more
“We want to find a way forward and we are approaching this in a constructive spirit,” May’s spokesman said. “We’ve set out the principles but clearly there is an overriding aim – to leave the European Union with a good deal – and we are open-minded.”

Civil servants and political staff are likely to attend the meetings, and ministers can direct civil servants to draw up more concrete plans where necessary, but the talks will not have the same formal status as coalition negotiations.

Wednesday’s vote followed an ill-tempered debate in which Corbyn accused May of presiding over a “zombie government”.

“It is clear that this government are not capable of winning support for their core plan on the most vital issue facing this country. The prime minister has lost control and the government have lost the ability to govern.”

Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, wound up the debate for his party by saying May would for ever be known as “the nothing-has-changed prime minister”.

“No one doubts her determination, which is generally of an admirable quality, but, misapplied, it can be toxic,” he said. “And the cruellest truth of all is that she doesn’t possess the necessary political skills, empathy, ability, and most crucially, the policy, to lead this country any longer.”

The environment secretary, Michael Gove, responded with a robust speech widely regarded at Westminster as a leadership pitch, praising May’s “inspirational leadership” and attacking Corbyn on issues from antisemitism to foreign policy.

“If he cannot protect the proud traditions of the Labour party, how can he possibly protect his country?” he asked.

One former Labour MP, John Woodcock, who resigned from the party after being investigated over sexual harassment claims, abstained from the vote, saying Corbyn was “unfit to lead the country”.

Had the motion passed, MPs would have had 14 days for an alternative government to emerge that could command a majority in the Commons, or a general election would have been triggered.

Corbyn is now likely to come under pressure from party activists to move towards supporting a second referendum. A group of more than 70 Labour MPs announced on Wednesday morning that they were backing the call for a “people’s vote”.

Labour’s formal position, adopted at its conference in Liverpool last year, commits the party to press for a general election. Failing that, all options are on the table, including that of campaigning for a second referendum.


First history, then the hangover: MPs traipse back to the farce
John Crace
It was the day after the night before, and Tories backed their ringleader for this mess

 @JohnJCrace
Wed 16 Jan 2019 20.59 GMT Last modified on Thu 17 Jan 2019 07.23 GMT


The Ship of Fools drifts on, its captain and crew seemingly indifferent to the rocks ahead. There was a time when Westminster was just your average shitshow, but that shark has long since been jumped. A shitshow at least has a certain entertainment value; now there’s more fun to be had from having a panic attack. Which is what the rest of the country has moved on to. That and foraging in Jacob Rees-Mogg’s recycling for food to stockpile.

And there is nothing average about this parliament. If only. That’s a level of elite performance which most MPs can only dream about. It’s taken years of training for this bunch just to learn how to get dressed in the morning. Or undressed in Boris Johnson’s case. You’d get more sense out of someone who’d overdosed on barbiturates.

Alice hasn’t just disappeared through the looking glass. She’s kicked in the whole mirror. On the morning after the night before, it was almost as if no one was fully aware of the significance of the government having suffered the most crushing defeat on record.

Rather than a sense of history in the making, there was more a vague sense of embarrassment. As if everyone had blacked out after getting completely trashed and had come round unable to remember precisely what they had said or done. All they had was a lingering sense of having behaved badly. A communal dance of shame in which no one quite dared to look anyone else in the eye.

As ever it was Theresa May who set the tone. At prime minister’s questions nothing had changed. The reason her deal had been rejected was because parliament had failed to understand it properly. So as a special treat, she was prepared to sit down with those MPs who agreed with her and explain to them why she was right. And when she had done that she would bring the deal back to the Commons to let them have another go at voting it down.

This wasn’t just delusional. It was disturbingly pathological. Jeremy Corbyn tried to introduce a note of reality, but May wasn’t having it. At times of crisis her sense of denial inevitably prevails. Those who had spent the morning working on decommissioning her memory had done a decent job. She had already blanked out just how crap she was. She was proud to be the woman without qualities.

Things didn’t much improve when the Labour leader opened the no-confidence vote. You’d have imagined that Corbyn would have made a bit of an effort with this speech. After all, it was notionally the moment he had aspired to for the past 35 years. He spoke well enough about why May had failed on Brexit, but then even a Question Time audience can manage that these days. He was less than convincing on why he should replace her. Maybe he was just distracted by the knowledge he was certain to lose and would then be nudged closer to a second referendum he didn’t want. Or perhaps he was more in touch with the country than he sometimes appears. Most opinion polls have “don’t know” as the runaway favourite to be next prime minister. After the Four Pot Plants.

May defended her record, slowly and robotically. She was a legend: she’d been held in contempt of parliament; she’d lost a budget vote; and now her Brexit deal had suffered a record parliamentary defeat. That was a stunning hat-trick of own goals. And she hadn’t even done the decent thing and resigned! Beat that! She was already a YouTube classic. Give her a few more weeks and she’d overtake David Cameron as the country’s worst-ever prime minister.

The next few hours were best forgotten as Tories, many of whom had gone out of their way to make plain their lack of confidence in May, went on to say why she had their full confidence and should remain prime minister. Some even wondered out loud why the public had such a low opinion of politicians. They should try listening to themselves some time. Rebecca Pow sobbed that the Commons should have been talking about Conservative achievements. Not that she could think of many.


'Either he backs Brexit, or the people': the Commons no-confidence debate in quotes
 Read more
Wes Streeting, Stella Creasy and Tom Watson livened things up a bit, but there was no disguising that history was proving to be an anti-climax as no one seriously believed the confidence vote had a prayer. Michael Gove was so sure of victory that, in between rubbishing the idea of Corbyn as a possible prime minister, he took the piss out of May by describing her as “inspirational” in his closing speech.

Sure enough, the prime minister crept over the line by 52% to 48%; history repeating itself first as tragedy, then as farce. Not that she cared. She had won a vote for the first time in weeks. She was a winner after all.

May made a brief statement finally inviting other party leaders to hear why her red lines still stood. Corbyn and the Scottish National party’s Ian Blackford demanded that a no deal should be taken off the table: the DUP’s Nigel Dodds reminded her she had only survived because of his party’s votes and that the price of his continued support was a hard Brexit. And more cash.

The chancellor immediately got out his credit card but May remained impassive. Her face frozen. The Brexit circle could still not be squared and the shutters had gone down again. She wasn’t listening. She was barely there. Even in victory, she was a darkness visible.

Brexit: What now?
MPs could force a delay to Brexit of 9 months.

By           TOM MCTAGUE               1/16/19, 7:35 PM CET Updated 1/17/19, 8:53 AM CET

LONDON — Put a faint cross through March 29, 2019. Pencil in December 31, 2019.

Now that Theresa May has survived the latest attempt to drag her from office — a no-confidence vote on Wednesday evening — she will face a parliamentary ambush designed to wrestle away control of the Brexit negotiations. That could result in Britain’s withdrawal being delayed for nine months.

A lot needs to happen before then.

Here’s what.

Wednesday, January 16
By defeating Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s attempt to force a general election through a vote of no confidence in the government, the U.K. prime minister has bought herself time.

May said she would immediately begin negotiations with the leaders of parliamentary parties to try to find a compromise Brexit that could be negotiated with the EU.

The talks will include Tory and Democratic Unionist Party MPs who want to see more safeguards built into the Irish backstop, including a cutoff date or a unilateral exit mechanism, neither of which Brussels has said it is willing to accept.

Also up will be MPs from the Labour Party who want Brexit delivered, but a softer version with closer regulatory alignment with the EU, a permanent customs union and greater environmental and labor protections.

Justice Secretary David Gauke suggested the government might be willing to offer a full customs union as the price of a deal. “At this stage we are engaging with parliamentary opinion,” he said Wednesday. “I don’t think we can today be boxing ourselves in.”

The big danger for May now is that she loses control before she can make any progress.

Monday, January 20
Under the terms of a controversial amendment put forward by Tory backbencher Dominic Grieve and forced on the government by MPs earlier this month, the prime minister must return to parliament by Monday setting out how she plans to proceed following MPs’ rejection of her Brexit deal.

This will take the form of a motion in the House of Commons, which can be amended by MPs before a vote within seven working days. May’s aides have said they plan to move to a vote “quickly,” suggesting sometime that week.


EU officials are not expecting May to visit Brussels until the end of next week at the earliest, giving her a small window of time to find a new compromise package which most MPs now expect to lean heavily toward a softer Brexit along the lines sought by Tory rebels and Labour MPs.

The January ambush
The big danger for May now is that she loses control before she can make any progress.

This starts with an amendment being drawn up by Tory MP Nick Boles, which seeks to take a no-deal off the table and empower MPs to find a compromise Brexit acceptable to a majority of the House of Commons.

The idea is to amend the “Plan B” motion May is expected to lay on January 20, not simply to propose a different type of Brexit but to change parliamentary rules — so-called Standing Orders — to allow backbench MPs to rush through new legislation in a single day ruling out no deal.


Anti-Brexit protesters demonstrate outside the Houses of Parliament on January 15, 2019 in London | Jack Taylor/Getty Images

If the amendment secures a majority, it sets aside parliamentary time for a new EU Withdrawal Bill, which will take precedence over all government business.

Boles and his allies believe this bill could become law by mid-February and he is confident it has majority support.

Three-week window
The Boles law would give the government three further weeks to secure a new deal with the EU that has majority support in the Commons. This takes the country to early March, perilously close to Brexit Day on March 29.

At this point, the liaison committee — the most senior committee of the House — would be handed the power to obtain a majority in favor of an alternative plan.

The liaison committee — made up of committee chairs and led by the anti-Brexit Tory MP Sarah Wollaston — would become the de facto government of the U.K., with the actual government becoming the real opposition in all but name. The places in the Commons would stay the same, but the power would have shifted.

EU leaders (who must agree unanimously) have indicated that they would be open to an extension in pursuit of a defined aim, but not just to prolong the Brexit uncertainty.

Under the Boles plan, the government would be compelled to implement whatever is proposed by the liaison committee if it is approved by the House of Commons and agreed by the EU.

If the liaison committee fails in this task — or refuses — the Boles law, as currently drafted, would compel the government to seek a nine-month extension of the Article 50 process.

Brexit get-out
What if the government and the liaison committee fail to come up with an alternative plan and then the European Union rejects the application for an extension to Article 50? EU leaders (who must agree unanimously) have indicated that they would be open to an extension in pursuit of a defined aim, but not just to prolong the Brexit uncertainty. If there is no plan they might refuse.

At this point, MPs opposed to Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union want the government to unilaterally revoke Article 50, stopping Brexit in its tracks. Under the current Boles plan, the government would not be compelled to do so, though some MPs may seek to amend the plan to make this explicit.

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