Why
ISIL fights in Europe
Don’t
buy their propaganda of ‘retaliation’ for Western strikes in
Syria. The jihadist group has larger ambitions in Germany and France.
By JEAN-PIERRE
FILIU 12/27/16, 5:27 AM CET Updated 12/27/16, 7:52 AM CET
The so-called
Islamic State rushed to claim responsibility for last week’s
Christmas market attack in Berlin, even with the alleged terrorist
Anis Amri then on the run. (The 24-year-old Tunisian was killed a few
days later in Milan.)
The jihadist group’s
eagerness to cash in the propaganda chips is only one indication of
how important it was and remains for ISIL to score a hit against
Germany — especially after a string of aborted or limited attacks.
Germany stands at the very core of ISIL’s strategy for Europe. It’s
important to understand why in order to to think more clearly about
possible remedies.
Dual goals
ISIL’s terror
campaign in Europe began on May 24, 2014 when Mehdi Nemmouche
attacked the Jewish Museum in Brussels, killing four people. This
attack took place more than a year after the declaration of the
Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant in the Syrian city of Raqqa, and
a month before Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIL leader, proclaimed himself
“caliph.” Even more important, Brussels occurred long before a
U.S.-led coalition started bombing ISIL positions in Iraq, in August
2014, then in Syria the following month.
For
the jihadists, Europe is a pool of potential recruits and a dangerous
counter-model of enduring coexistence.
This timing is worth
dwelling on for a couple reasons. For as much as ISIL says its
terrorism is “retaliation” for Western air strikes against them,
and as much as too many people take that claim at face value,
repeating it only plays into the hands of jihadist propaganda. Note
that Brussels was hit by terrorists last March, leaving 32 dead, at a
time when Belgium wasn’t in any way active in the anti-ISIL
coalition. It also misses the key to the dynamics of the ongoing
terror campaign in Europe: There are bigger reasons why ISIL focuses
on Europe that go beyond the lazy explanation of bombings and truck
attacks (before Berlin came Nice in July) as a response to Western
strikes in Syria and Iraq.
For ISIL, Europe is
both a coveted pool of potential recruits and a dangerous
counter-model of enduring coexistence. Terror attacks in Europe are
intended to generate internal strife and societal tension in the hope
of encouraging more young Muslim men (and more than a few women) to
join the jihadist cause in Syria and Iraq. And, as importantly, to
demonstrate and precipitate the failure of the democratic, European
alternative to the jihadist caliphate.
The two main targets
for ISIL are France and Germany. France because it is home to the
Continent’s largest Jewish and Muslim populations that, while
imperfect, shows how communities can live side by side. And Germany
because of its generous open door to refugees from Syria and Iraq:
ISIL propaganda is rabidly anti-refugee, accusing migrants of
betraying the “true path” of the caliphate.
German jihadis
While last year’s
Paris attacks highlighted roots ISIL has put down in France, the
terror group has also tried to make inroads in Germany. At least 800
people have joined ISIL from Germany. Some reached prominent
positions, like Reda Seyam, who was appointed “minister of
education” before being killed in Iraq in December 2014. The leader
of the German (and German-speaking) recruits is believed to be
Mohammed Mahmoud, an Austrian-born “veteran” of jihadi
propaganda, who had previously served al Qaeda media campaigns. Some
140 German-originated jihadis have been reported killed in Syria and
Iraq, including at least 14 in suicide attacks.
On November 8, a
major police operation in the German city of Hildesheim led to the
arrest of the radical preacher nicknamed Abou Walaa. He is accused of
organizing the recruitment and transfer of activists to ISIL. German
security has now stated that he was in contact with Amri, the Berlin
Christmas market attacker. Another police dragnet was launched one
week after the Hildensheim operation against a similar network in
Germany. Jihadi “veterans,” now back home, have started to be
tried and condemned in German courts (as happened to three in
Düsseldorf two months ago).
In France and
Belgium, ISIL has used jihadi returnees from Syria and Iraq in
terrorist attacks. In Germany, the group repeatedly used refugees
instead of veterans to carry them out — without much success. It
made sense to try since ISIL’s strategy in Germany is to undermine
Angela Merkel’s liberal refugee policy through terror. A possibly
serious attack by three jihadis posing as refugees on the old city of
Düsseldorf was foiled after the surrender and confession of a Syrian
militant in France, in February 2016; two asylum-seekers, one
17-year-old Afghan on a train in Würzburg and one 27-year-old Syrian
at a music festival in Anbasch, died in suicide-attacks (that
fortunately killed nobody else) under instructions from ISIL in
Syria.
Western intelligence
have warned about the activity of the Emni, or ISIL “security
branch,” now in charge of “external operations” (meaning terror
attacks abroad). The Bremen-born Harry Sarfo joined ISIL in April
2015 and was quickly recruited by the Emni, which sent him back home
after only three months in the field. That decision and, following
his capture, Sarfo’s testimony in court provided vivid proof of
growing frustration inside ISIL over its inability to strike Germany.
Despite its focus on the country, ISIL had failed to carry out any
attack as deadly as in neighboring France.
The biggest defeat
for ISIL in Germany occurred in October, when the Syrian jihadi Jaber
al-Bakr — on the run after a planned terror attack against an
airport, most probably in Berlin — was captured and delivered to
the police by three Syrian refugees. By praising the three “anonymous
heroes,” German authorities tried to promote a positive narrative
to support their asylum policy. But Bakr committed suicide while
being detained in Leipzig, undermining German law authorities’
ability to paint his capture as a success.
ISIL
is the great winner from this month’s fall of Aleppo.
The populist and
far-right critics of Merkel asylum policy turned louder and more
vicious after the killings in Berlin. At long last, ISIL had reached
its German target, even though it had to resort not to a refugee but
to a Tunisian Amri with a European criminal record, whose asylum
application had been turned down (though Germany had failed to deport
him).
* * *
In the larger
picture, the Berlin attack is part of a new wave of global terror
that is bound to follow the fall of insurgent-held Aleppo this month.
ISIL is the great
winner of this major turning point in the Syrian war for at least
three reasons: The regime of Bashar al-Assad, with the substantial
involvement of Russia and Iran, liquidated the very forces that had
driven ISIL from Aleppo as early as January 2014; Assad and his
allies were so focused on crushing the city that they let ISIL take
back Palmyra, whose “liberation” had been abundantly celebrated
in Damascus and Moscow last March; and international passivity during
the siege of Aleppo fueled jihadi propaganda about an international
“conspiracy” against Muslim civilians and the need to join ISIL
to “defend” them.
The terror threat to
Europe won’t end until Raqqa falls.
On the eve of the
Berlin attack, ISIL managed to strike the Jordanian city of Karak
where clashes with jihadi commandos left 10 dead. More important than
the toll is the fact that Karak is a tribal pillar of the ruling
Jordanian monarchy. A Jordanian pilot whom ISIL tortured to death in
February 2015 was originally from Karak, where King Abdullah II’s
government launched its nation-wide campaign of popular mobilization
against ISIL. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s death squads had long worked
for a major blow against Jordan, the same way they focused on
achieving such a bloody outcome in Germany. It is only more ominous
that they could eventually strike both countries in less than 48
hours.
The Berlin tragedy
raises questions about Amri’s support network and his ability to
move across Europe for some three days after the attack. All these
questions are legitimate and should be addressed accordingly. But, as
I wrote after the Paris attacks on November 13 of last year,
“anything short of the takeover of the main jihadi stronghold in
Syria will leave the initiative in the hands of ISIL and Europe
vulnerable to repeated attacks.” That was before the bloodbaths
that shook Brussels, Nice and Berlin.
As long as Raqqa
stands as the operational command center for ISIL terror attacks,
Europe will be struck again and again. And with the U.S. stuck in
Mosul and the Russians “mopping up” Aleppo, it seems that ISIS
could sit comfortably for some time more in Raqqa. Too bad for
Europe, too sad for Germany.
Jean-Pierre Filiu is
professor of Middle East Studies at Sciences Po, Paris School of
International Affairs (PSIA). He is the author of “From Deep State
to Islamic State,” published in London by Hurst and in New York by
Oxford University Press. His various books on the Arab world have
been published in 15 languages.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário