5
things to watch at the EU summit
The
last European Council of 2016 will be a one-day affair, with plenty
of talking points.
By JACOPO
BARIGAZZI 12/15/16, 5:36 AM CET
The more problems
pile up for the European Union — migration crisis, economic
troubles, the rise of Euroskeptic parties — the shorter the regular
meetings of EU leaders become.
And so it is when
leaders meet for their summit Thursday and President of the European
Council Donald Tusk will have to deliver on his promise to free prime
ministers after only a one-day session.
But one senior EU
official described the summit as “a minefield” where “many
things could still go wrong,” despite extensive preparation.
One of the most
interesting things to watch will not be on the agenda but rather on
the sidelines. Some diplomats expect leaders to start discussing the
EU institutional framework in the wake of European Parliament
President Martin Schulz’s decision to leave his position and in
sight of the expiration of Tusk’s mandate in spring.
Here are five other
things to watch for:
1. Syria
There are new
sanctions against the Syrian regime on the table. The draft of the
final statement, the Council conclusions, states clearly: “Those
responsible for breaches of international law, some of which may
amount to war crimes, must be held accountable. The EU is considering
all available options.”
As long as the
statement refers only to sanctions against the Syrian regime,
everybody is on board. Should the U.K. or other countries try to push
for new sanctions against Russia, it is likely to end in failure as
it did at the October summit, when Italy’s then-Prime Minister
Matteo Renzi managed to block new sanctions.
Since Russia was
debated then, no big discussions are expected this time around.
Instead, the rollover of economic sanctions against Moscow,
introduced in connection with the conflict in Ukraine, will likely be
smooth.
2. Ukraine
Dutch Prime Minister
Mark Rutte put forward a legally binding text Sunday intended to
ensure an association agreement with Ukraine will not create a
defense guarantee or become a step toward membership of the bloc for
the country.
Rutte, who lost an
April referendum on ratification of the trade and security deal with
Ukraine, has warned that if he doesn’t get such assurances at the
summit, his country “will not ratify the association agreement.”
Diplomats say it’s
almost done but wording that explicitly rules out any future Ukraine
accession could see countries such as Poland reject it. The Council
conclusions say that “completing the ratification process [of the
deal with Ukraine] remains a crucial EU objective.”
A failure to ratify
the agreement would be a huge defeat for the EU and Ukraine and a
significant victory for Russia.
The EU27 leaders
will issue a statement basically designed to tell the Brits: We are
ready for our impending separation; please speed up divorce
proceedings.
3. Migration
Finding an agreement
on asylum reform at this stage of the game is going to be hard, if
not impossible. Slovakia, which holds the rotating presidency, put
forward its own proposal last month on “effective solidarity”
which is basically a list of financial and logistic alternatives for
countries that don’t want to take in refugees.
The Mediterranean
countries — Italy, Greece and Malta — don’t like it because
they are afraid they will be left with all the arrivals. Hungary
doesn’t like it because the country wants all migrants’ cases to
be processed outside the EU in identification centers in North
Africa. The Germans are mediating but the road to a deal is long.
4. Defense
For the French, this
will be the most important item on the agenda. Leaders are expected
to bless further integration of EU defense, more military research
and the creation of a real European defense market. “Only a few
years ago, this would have been unthinkable,” said a senior
official. “It’s a process that has got a strong push after
Brexit,” led by France, Germany and Italy.
Leaders are also
expected to endorse a two-speed Europe, allowing some countries to
start without waiting for the consensus of the others.
Against such
integration are the U.K., the Baltic countries and Poland. They fear
anything that sounds like a duplication of NATO.
5. Brexit
After the end of the
meeting of the 28, there will be a dinner for 27. At the end of the
dinner, the 27 leaders will issue a statement basically designed to
tell the Brits: We are ready for our impending separation; please
speed up divorce proceedings.
The statement will
spell out that the first steps after notification will be the
adoption, by a leaders’ summit, of guidelines that will define the
framework for negotiations, said a diplomat. It does not explicitly
say that there’ll be an extraordinary summit. Everything depends on
the date of the notification. The guidelines can be adopted at the
March summit if London makes the notification early enough.
The statement will
also spell out the dynamic among the key EU institutions included in
the decision-making process and will mention the involvement of
Coreper, the regular meetings of EU ambassadors. The goal? To strike
the right balance between the Commission and the member countries,
and between efficiency and inclusiveness, explained the senior
diplomat.
Authors:
Jacopo Barigazzi
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