EU
waits on Donald Trump for next Russian sanctions move
The
U.S. measures underscore European divisions.
By SARA STEFANINI
AND NICHOLAS VINOCUR 12/30/16, 8:08 PM CET
Europe watched
Barack Obama’s retaliatory steps against Russian election hacking
with keen interest. But America’s closest allies are looking to his
replacement for cues on their next move.
Donald Trump’s
call on whether to keep the Obama-era sanctions against the Kremlin
in place will most likely determine whether Europe hunkers down for a
long fight with Moscow in cyberspace and elsewhere.
Obama’s decision
on Thursday to expel 35 alleged intelligence officers and take other
steps in response to cyber-meddling in the U.S. election comes at a
time of deep divisions in Europe over policy toward Russia. There is
growing pressure from countries such as Italy and Hungary to lift
existing sanctions imposed over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. More
hawkish nations, led by the U.K., France and Germany, want new
penalties over Russia’s intervention in Syria. There is also fear
that Russia will use the same disruptive techniques as it reportedly
used in the U.S. to influence key 2017 elections in France and
Germany.
Publicly, European
leaders have largely kept quiet about the U.S. move. But officials
and analysts say the real impact across the Atlantic will be felt
after Inauguration Day. “For the EU, it depends on what Trump
does,” said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on
Foreign Relations.
If Trump cancels
these new sanctions and rolls back those over Russia’s annexation
of Crimea, the EU will be pressed to follow suit. “The nightmare
for European countries is to play bad cop to America’s good cop,”
Leonard added. “If [Trump] recognizes the annexation of Crimea and
starts to remove sanctions, it puts the EU in an intolerable
position.”
EU leaders extended
the bloc’s economic sanctions against Russia earlier this month
until July 31 2017. In October, they shied away from imposing new
sanctions over what British Prime Minister Theresa May called
Russia’s “sickening atrocities” in Syria — despite a strong
push from the U.K., France and Germany.
Trump has so far
shown he cares little for the party line, so his position is
unpredictable.
It’s as hard to
remove as to add sanctions and the divisions among the EU countries
favor the status quo. Barring an unexpected Russian military
disengagement from the conflict in Ukraine, the only game changer
would be an American move to drop sanctions, said Marek Wąsiński,
an analyst at the Polish Institute for International Affairs. “If
there is a lack of trans-Atlantic vision of how to respond to Russia,
and if the United States withdraws from these plans, then Europe
should be in the same position,” he said.
Obama quickly
received support from senior U.S. Republican congressmen, who
welcomed the sanctions as being “long overdue.” That makes it
harder for Trump to undo the move, which would open him to charges of
being a Kremlin ally. That said, Trump has so far shown he cares
little for the party line, so his position is unpredictable.
Russian President
Vladimir Putin appeared to ingratiate himself with the next
president, announcing on Friday that Moscow would not expel any
American diplomats in response to the U.S. ejecting 35 Russian
officials — or take other retaliatory actions until Trump takes
office.
“Although we have
reason to retaliate, we will not resort to irresponsible ‘kitchen’
diplomacy but will plan our further steps to restore Russia-U.S.
relations based on the policies of the Trump administration,” the
Kremlin said in a statement.
The looming cyber
threat
The justification
for the new U.S. sanctions is that Russia interfered in its elections
— charges backed up in a report published Thursday by the U.S.
Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of
Investigation, laying out the methods used by the Russian
intelligence services.
A European diplomat
said his foreign ministry had already passed the U.S. report to its
intelligence services to analyze, but noted that it echoes
cyberattacks in his own country, though not related to elections.
“We were more in
favor, like other countries, of extending the existing sanctions”
rather than strengthening or expanding them, the diplomat said, on
condition of anonymity. “But if this report is technically
substantiated … we can’t remain still.”
There is growing
fear that the Kremlin is planning similar measures elsewhere in the
EU in order to get back at some of its fiercest critics, the diplomat
said.
“France
permanently and with the greatest vigilance tracks anything that
could affect its sovereignty and the regular democratic expression of
it” — French foreign ministry statement issued Friday.
German government
officials worry the Kremlin has set its sights on Chancellor Angela
Merkel, who has condemned Russian actions in Syria and Ukraine, and
who faces a probable September election.
The chief of
Germany’s internal security service warned this month of attempts
to influence the outcome of elections in his country, as did the head
of France’s ANSSI cyber-security agency though without naming
Russia, due to a strict French diplomatic tradition of not naming
countries suspected of espionage.
“France
permanently and with the greatest vigilance tracks anything that
could affect its sovereignty and the regular democratic expression of
it,” said a French foreign ministry statement issued Friday.
In November,
France’s National Secretariat of Defense and National Security, a
coordinating agency linked to the prime minister’s office, held a
seminar to educate political parties, pollsters and companies that
handle electronic voting about the risk of hacking.
And on Wednesday
Sébastien Pietrasanta, a Socialist MP, sent a written question to
the government expressing further concerns about the security of
electronic voting devices, which are used in some communes in France.
“As we saw with
the hacking of computers belonging to the Democratic Party in the
United States, the possibility of an attack on these machines is not
to be ruled out,” wrote Pietrasanta.
The Kremlin may have
an interest in the election in France of a pro-Moscow candidate who
could tip the balance of power in Europe toward lifting economic and
diplomatic sanctions against Russia.
The Conservative
former Prime Minister François Fillon, who is currently leading the
polls, is a forceful advocate for warmer relations with Russia, as
well as the lifting of sanctions. He met with Putin after leaving
office and is reported by French media to have personal ties with the
Russian leader.
Center-left
presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron also called this year for
lifting Russian sanctions, and National Front chief Marine Le Pen is
a vocal advocate for Russia. In 2014, her euroskeptic party accepted
€11 million in loans from Russian-backed financial institutions, a
transaction that some speculated may have been linked to her
recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
While France’s
position in Russia may change after the May election, a German shift
is much less likely because Merkel is expected to win a fourth term
as chancellor, analysts said.
A pro-Russian
political shift in Western Europe could leave Central and Eastern
Europe isolated.
“From the Polish
position, there is no change when it comes to the situation in
Ukraine,” said Wąsiński. “We cannot agree on canceling the
sanctions.”
Authors:
Sara Stefanini and
Nicholas Vinocur
Donald
Trump praises 'great move' by Vladimir Putin for not ordering
tit-for-tat expulsions
Mr
Trump has again used Twitter to conduct his political outreach
Andrew Buncombe New
York @AndrewBuncombe
Donald Trump has
praised Vladimir Putin for not ordering tit-for-tat expulsions
following the decision by Barack Obama to oust 35 Russian diplomats.
In a move that will
likely lead to the President-elect’s critics claiming he appears
more loyal to the Russian leader than the US president, Mr Trump said
it was a “great move” by the Kremlin.
A day after Mr Obama
ordered the expulsion of the Russian enjoys and the closing of two
compounds used by the diplomats, Mr Putin surprised many observers by
not reciprocating in kind. In a clever piece of political chess, he
said Russia would not lower itself to the level of “kitchen”
diplomacy”. He even invited the children to US diplomats in the US
to attend a New Year’s celebration at the Kremlin.
Follow
Donald J. Trump ✔
@realDonaldTrump
Great move on delay
(by V. Putin) - I always knew he was very smart!
8:41 PM - 30 Dec
2016
26,436 26,436
Retweets 70,327 70,327 likes
Mr Putin also made
clear that he could order further responses depending on what steps
Mr Trump takes when he assumes the US presidency on January 20. On
Thursday, Mr Trump had issued a statement saying that the American
people needed to move on to more important issues.
On Friday, after Mr
Putin played his hand, Mr Trump said on Twitter that he thought the
Russian leader’s decision was a “great move”. He added: “I
always knew he was very smart!.”
During the election
campaign, Mr Trump repeatedly praised Mr Putin’s leadership, an
issue on which he stood in sharp contrast to his Republican
colleagues. He also said he was ready to begin a new relationship
with Russia, after eight years under Mr Obama during which things
have become very strained.
Trump's advisor
suggests Obama's sanctions against Russia are to 'box in' the
incoming President
Yet Mr Trump stoked
the greatest controversy over the issue of Russia’s alleged hacking
of emails belonging to Hillary Clinton’s top adviser and members of
the Democratic National Committee. Firstly, Mr Trump encouraged
Russia to hack Ms Clinton and find her “missing emails”.
US intelligence has
since said it believed Russia was behind the hacking of the emails,
which were subsequently passed to Wikileaks, and similar sights. Many
reports say a consensus among the intelligence community is that
Russia was seeking to influence the election in favour of Mr Trump.
Mr Trump has
rejected the findings and said agencies such as the CIA cannot be
trusted given that they were wrong over their claims over Saddam
Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction.
Mr Obama ordered the
closure of compounds in Maryland and New York (AP)
On Friday, the US
authorities took possession of two “luxurious retreats” used by
Russian diplomats to swim, sail and relax, a day after Barack Obama
announced sanctions in in retaliation for Moscow’s alleged
interference in the presidential election.
The Associated Press
said that shortly before noon, caravans of diplomatic vehicles
departed both Russian compounds under the watch of US State
Department agents.
It said the 45-acre
Maryland included a brick mansion along the Corsica River in the
Eastern Shore region. Reports indicate it was bought by the Soviet
Union in 1972 and served as a getaway for its diplomats in nearby
Washington.
Meanwhile, in New
York, Russian diplomatic staff were similarly evicted from a mansion
on Long Island’s Gold Coast. The estate, once called Elmcroft, is
in the town of Oyster Bay and was purchased by the Soviets in 1952.
Transition
From Barack Obama to Donald Trump Turns Tense
After
warm start, White House changeover gets messy as agendas collide
By PETER NICHOLAS
and CAROL E. LEE
Updated Dec. 31,
2016 1:39 a.m. ET
President Barack
Obama and his successor Donald Trump are making moves that tread on
each other’s turf and complicate the other’s agenda, creating one
of the messiest White House transitions in recent years.
Since Election Day,
Mr. Obama has taken some of the most far-reaching actions of his
eight-year presidency, leaving Mr. Trump to manage the fallout and
narrowing his options once he takes office. He also plans a final
major address the week before the inauguration that will reflect on
his policy agenda, according to people familiar with the speech. The
address could contrast his approach with Mr. Trump’s.
This week, Mr. Obama
slapped Russia with a series of sanctions and diplomatic censures in
response to a U.S. intelligence assessment that Moscow used
cyberattacks to try to interfere with the presidential election. Last
week Mr. Obama broke with decades of U.S. policy and let pass a
United Nations resolution condemning Israel for building settlements.
As he prepares to
take office Jan. 20, Mr. Trump has made countermoves. His team talked
to Israeli officials about derailing the U.N. vote and he used social
media to try to sway the outcome, calling on Mr. Obama to use U.S.
veto power to reject the resolution.
Trump’s Plan to
Partner With Russia Faces New Hurdle
A central promise of
Trump’s foreign policy is that he will forge a working partnership
with Russia, turning an adversary into an ally in global threats that
bedeviled President Obama.
Mr. Trump has made
clear he doesn’t believe punitive sanctions against Russia are
needed, and he has questioned the evidence of Moscow’s meddling.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday he would hold off on
taking retaliatory action and wait to see how relations take shape in
a Trump administration. Mr. Trump commended the decision in a tweet
Friday: “Great move on delay (by V. Putin) – I always knew he was
very smart!”
Past transitions
played out with far less conflict on core national issues.
The 2000 transition
was abbreviated because of the recount in Florida. Incoming officials
in George W. Bush’s White House said they enjoyed the luxury of
building an administration behind the scenes, with much of the press
and public focused on ballot counts in Florida precincts.
Once the Bush team
moved into the White House, they accused President Bill Clinton’s
aides of vandalizing in prank fashion some office equipment—including
removing the ‘W’ from some typewriters— but the two teams
didn’t contradict each other’s final and first acts.
The Bush-Obama
transition in 2008 is viewed as among the most seamless. After he won
the election, Mr. Obama sought to steer clear of commenting publicly
on the financial crisis and steep job losses that consumed Mr. Bush’s
final months in office. In the weeks before his inauguration, Mr.
Obama repeatedly said the nation has only “one president at time,”
and he praised his predecessor in his inaugural address.
Watching from the
White House in recent days, Mr. Obama’s team has made plain it
would like Mr. Trump to wait his turn.
Ben Rhodes, a deputy
national security adviser, said recently that the president and his
aides “believe that it’s important that there’s a principle
here that the world understands who is speaking on behalf of the
United States until Jan. 20 and who is speaking on behalf of the
United States after Jan. 20.”
Confusion is evident
in some foreign capitals.
At a government news
conference in Berlin this week, the German foreign ministry spokesman
took a question about a tweet from Mr. Trump saying the U.S. should
“expand its nuclear capability.”
“We cannot
conclude how policy will look after Jan. 20 based on half a tweet and
a comment,” the spokesman, Sebastian Fischer, said. “It is good
state practice always to have only one president at a time.”
The transition
started out on an auspicious note. Two days after the election
Messrs. Obama and Trump met in the Oval Office for 90 minutes—longer
than Mr. Trump planned. They have been talking by phone about weekly
ever since.
But beneath the
cordial conversations are serious policy disputes. Mr. Trump wants to
repeal the centerpiece of Mr. Obama’s domestic legacy: the
health-care overhaul aimed at insuring the millions of Americans who
lacked coverage.
Next week Mr. Obama
will head to Capitol Hill to meet with Democrats to discuss ways they
can try to preserve the Affordable Care Act, with hopes of stiffening
their resolve in the face of Mr. Trump’s efforts to roll back the
health law.
Mr. Obama has been
taking other steps that could potentially circumscribe Mr. Trump’s
action once in office.
Last week, the Obama
administration said it would indefinitely block drilling in broad
swaths of the Arctic and Atlantic oceans, an attempt to cement his
environmental legacy and potentially stymie a move by the incoming
Trump administration to expand drilling.
Mr. Trump seemed to
be making reference to these moves when he tweeted Wednesday that he
was “doing my best to disregard the many inflammatory President O
statements and roadblocks.”
“Thought it was
going to be a smooth transition - NOT!” he added.
Kellyanne Conway, an
incoming senior adviser to Mr. Trump, told Fox News on Thursday: “I
hope this isn’t motivated by politics even a little bit.”
She added: “We do
wonder about the rush to do all of these things in the next couple of
weeks by the Obama administration and how that may upend longstanding
U.S. policy, as it seems to be.”
White House
officials stress that while there are policy differences between the
president and president-elect, that is are separate from the
logistical preparations for the transition, of power which Mr. Obama
has pushed his aides to ensure is seamless.
Part of what is
motivating Mr. Obama, White House aides say, is a desire to lock in
pieces of his legacy. He had been considering taking a stand on the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the U.N. long before Mr. Trump’s
election victory, White House officials said.
With respect to
Russia, he became convinced the nation meddled in the election in
ways that pose a genuine threat to the country and can’t go
unpunished.
White House aides
talk of “nailing down the furniture” so that policy goals that
Mr. Obama methodically pursued can’t be undone once Mr. Trump takes
power. The president, when he took office eight years ago, did just
that to his predecessor, Mr. Bush.
—Anton Troianovski
contributed to this article.
Write to Peter
Nicholas at peter.nicholas@wsj.com and Carol E. Lee at
carol.lee@wsj.com
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