How
the Dutch Left blew it
Next
year’s election is shaping up to be a fight between two right-wing
leaders.
By TOM-JAN
MEEUS 12/17/16, 7:06 AM CET
ROTTERDAM, The
Netherlands — Ahmed Aboutaleb was giving a lot of Dutch politicians
sleepless nights earlier this year. A moderate Muslim of Moroccan
descent, the mayor of Rotterdam is the most popular politician in the
country.
Had he entered the
fray as his party’s candidate in the Netherlands’ national
elections next March, it would have upended the race. Instead,
Aboutaleb dropped out of the contest for his party’s leadership
before it even began, retreating from national politics altogether.
Late last week, the
Labour Party chose as its leader Lodewijk Asscher, a party stalwart
who served as deputy prime minister in coalition with Prime Minister
Mark Rutte, a fiscal conservative.
The Labour Party has
struggled ever since it decided in 2012 to join Rutte in reforming
the welfare state. The economy recovered, but Labour never did.
The dramatic turn of
events underscores the threat facing the Dutch Left. Next year’s
election is shaping up to be a fight between two right-wing leaders,
with Rutte facing off against the populist agitator Geert Wilders.
Aboutaleb could have
been the Left’s answer to the question of how to remain relevant as
this traditionally liberal country enters the era of identity
politics.
He really hit it
home with Dutch voters in his response to the Charlie Hebdo attacks
in January 2015. In an emotional interview on live television the day
of the attacks, Aboutaleb urged radical Muslims “to just go away.”
Even [Geert]
Wilders, an anti-Muslim firebrand with a habit of attacking both the
Left and people of Moroccan descent, has referred to Aboutaleb as “a
good man.”
The next day, during
a Rotterdam solidarity march organized in response to the attacks,
Aboutaleb stood out with a passionate speech in flawless French. Soon
after, the White House invited Aboutaleb to a conference on
terrorism, cementing his reputation as a national figure.
A devout Muslim, but
opposed to all forms of religious radicalism and highly critical of
immigrants who don’t respect secular Dutch values such as tolerance
for homosexuals, Aboutaleb has become a leading proponent of a strong
but measured response to issues like migration, religion and terror.
Even
Wilders, an anti-Muslim firebrand with a habit of attacking both the
Left and people of Moroccan descent, has referred to Aboutaleb as “a
good man.”
And Rutte has
routinely mentioned Aboutaleb as an example of the opportunities the
Netherlands gives people with a foreign background.
In many ways,
Aboutaleb is the country’s best success story.
Having grown up in
the Moroccan countryside, Aboutaleb arrived in the Netherlands at age
15, received a modest education and pulled himself up to the highest
circles of society within a decade. He became a TV reporter, a
government spokesman and a lobbyist for diversity.
He entered politics
12 years ago, as a member of the Amsterdam city government, before he
was promoted to the national government and subsequently appointed
mayor of Rotterdam — the birthplace of modern Dutch populism — in
2009.
With characteristic
ease, Aboutaleb managed to create a political partnership with the
heirs of Pim Fortuyn’s political movement. Fortuyn, credited with
kickstarting the Dutch populist movement, and known for his
controversial views on immigration and Islam, was assassinated in
2002.
And yet, despite his
political successes and his popularity, Aboutaleb’s announcement on
TV earlier this year that he was considering a run for Labour
leadership was met rather coldly by the party establishment.
Dutch finance
minister and Eurogroup chair Jeroen Dijsselbloem accused Aboutaleb of
trying to force out Diederik Samsom, the party leader at the time.
Things got nastier
behind closed doors, as the acting party leadership attempted to
protect its position and accused Aboutaleb of placing his own
ambition above party cohesion.
Aboutaleb, who
values his image as a popular team player, decided not to risk his
reputation with a bid for his party’s top job.
This is bad news for
the Left’s political prospects. Aboutaleb would have provided
Labour with its best weapon against Wilders’ brand of identity
politics. Even as the party was picking its leader, Wilders was
dominating the news after a Dutch court convicted him last week of
inciting discrimination against Dutch Moroccans.
Wilders advocated
for “fewer Moroccans” in 2014, a controversial statement that
isolated him among the political class, but helped him gain
popularity with voters.
Where Aboutaleb
would have easily been able to adapt to the rise of identity politics
— he is after all, a poster child for the success of liberal Dutch
politics — Labour’s leadership has determinedly stuck to
traditional, economy-driven politics.
The trouble is the
policies that once made the Left a defining
force in the
country, with 40 to 45 percent of the vote, have now left it
ill-equipped to respond to the likes of Wilders and his impassioned
pleas for a return to “Dutch” values.
Broadly speaking,
the coalition government’s reforms have been successful: Growth is
up, the deficit is nearing zero. But where Rutte has been able to
portray these results as an achievement — “I can get things done”
— Labour has struggled to convince supporters of its claim it saved
the Dutch welfare state.
In the polls, Labour
is down to less than 10 percent of the vote, now the country’s
sixth or seventh largest party.
There
is a fair chance Asscher will pull his party up in the polls. But, as
a former Rutte deputy, his vulnerabilities are quite obvious, too.
Labour officials
claimed Lodewijk Asscher, the newly elected party chief, will be able
to turn this around with a moderate brand of identity politics.
Asscher himself framed it as “progressive patriotism” — love of
country as a left-wing agenda.
Asscher is critical
of labor migration within the EU — and critical of the EU itself.
He has argued ethnic and religious groups have to prove their loyalty
to the Netherlands before they benefit from the welfare state, and
has claimed to be the progressive alternative to both Rutte and
Wilders on that score.
His personal ratings
are above average, and insiders regard him as a smart and cunning
player in Dutch politics.
There is a fair
chance Asscher will pull his party up in the polls. But, as a former
Rutte deputy, his vulnerabilities are quite obvious, too.
And even his most
notable political success came with a heavy dose of irony. In 2006,
Asscher won city elections in Amsterdam in one of the biggest ever
local victories for his party.
Only one other
politician collected more votes: his deputy on the ticket, Ahmed
Aboutaleb.
Tom-Jan Meeus is a
political columnist for NRC Handelsblad. He was awarded best
political writer of the Netherlands in 2015.
Authors:
Tom-Jan Meeus
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