Trump’s
unconventional picks make Europe tremble
Rex
Tillerson’s nomination elicits joy in Moscow and puzzlement mixed
with a wait-and-see attitude in EU.
By DAVID M.
HERSZENHORN 12/13/16, 8:11 PM CET Updated 12/13/16, 8:47 PM CET
America’s closest
overseas allies struggled Tuesday to understand and digest Donald
Trump’s emerging foreign policy team.
Rex Tillerson’s
move from chief of the world’s most powerful oil company ExxonMobil
to nominee to become chief diplomat of the world’s sole superpower
elicited a collective gasp in Europe, summed up by the venerable,
left-of-center French newspaper Le Monde: “Uncertainty adds itself
to the unknown,” it wrote, reporting that Trump, “whose vision of
foreign affairs doesn’t stop raising questions … nominated a
neophyte to head American diplomacy.”
On a Continent that
never fell out of love with Barack Obama or hid its preference for
Hillary Clinton, the rise of Donald Trump — followed by the
appointment of a hawkish general at the Pentagon, James “Mad Dog”
Mattis, and now the choice of Tillerson a Texas oil man who’s
friendly to Russia for secretary of state — continues to send
trembles across European borders.
The Trump team’s
style recalls the George W. Bush presidency, with its own Texas
swagger and prized role for the military, which European elites don’t
recall fondly. Barack Obama is appreciated for his softer touch here,
but also criticized for his reluctance to engage in the world’s
problems more directly — whether in Syria or in response to
Vladimir Putin’s aggressions in Ukraine.
Trump is already
showing he will be very different, though few seem to know precisely
how. On substance, the incoming president elicits as much puzzlement
as worry. Whether in Brussels, Paris, Berlin or London, senior
officials say they don’t have any clear idea where Trump and his
team will go on NATO, Russia sanctions or the Middle East. And in
Eastern Europe, some expressed a sense of whiplash with the choice of
Mattis, who is seen as tough on Russia, offset by Tillerson, who has
a reputation as a friend of Putin and opponent of sanctions.
The official
reactions were predictably cautious, with government leaders not
wanting to get ahead of events or make premature pronouncements.
Still, in conversations in capitals across the Continent, and in the
initial media coverage of Trump’s pick for secretary of state, it
was easy to discern anxiety mixed in with a wait-and-see attitude as
the president-elect’s words get translated into actions.
From Paris to Berlin
“President-elect
Donald Trump, once more, surprised the public with his choice,”
Jürgen Hardt, the German government’s coordinator for
transatlantic cooperation, told RND newspapers on Tuesday afternoon.
Hardt, like many
commentators, noted Tillerson’s long-standing business dealings
with Russia’s President Putin. “Personal relations to the Russian
president are neither a bad thing per se, nor an indicator of
quality,” Hardt said. “Just like the American public, we now
expect that past loyalties to his former employer won’t play a role
in his new occupation.”
“There’s
a cynical part of diplomacy which is to wait. We won’t see what’s
really going on before they actually take over” —
French official
It was also clear
that Trump was already rewriting expectations of American foreign
policy, against the backdrop of his own highly unconventional,
anti-institutional approach to remaking Washington.
In Paris, for
instance, one government advisor noted that the choice of Tillerson,
as a businessman, might be seen as a relatively moderate pick
compared to the hawkish military men that Trump has favored for other
senior posts, including to run the Pentagon and the Department of
Homeland Security and atop the National Security Council.
“As
a businessman he could prove more realistic than the generals,” the
government advisor said.
One senior French
diplomat said the government would almost certainly continue the
wait-and-see approach, allowing Trump and his team to acclimate to
the hard realities of governing. “There’s a cynical part of
diplomacy which is to wait until there are actual acts or policies
announced,” the diplomat said. “We won’t see what’s really
going on before they actually take over.”
London’s
position is that regardless of what Tillerson has said, Trump will
determine U.S. foreign policy.
The diplomat said
that much of the talk about taking a new approach toward Russia was
detached from the reality of world affairs, and noted that the Obama
administration, despite tensions with Putin, has continued talking to
Moscow all along. “The question is not whether to talk or not but
what do you talk about?” the diplomat said. “On Syria are the
U.S. and Russia going to bomb together? When they start talking about
[Syrian strongman] Bashar [al-Assad], do they simply both agree he
can stay?”
‘What’s rhetoric
… and what’s policy?’
While Brexit and
Trump’s upset win have given the U.K. and the U.S. a shared sense
of political upheaval, British officials said they were still
prepared for potential disagreements, including over economic
sanctions against Russia, which Tillerson has criticized but most
European governments strongly support.
Senior U.K.
government sources told POLITICO Tuesday they were exploring what the
nominee for secretary of state has said in the past “and what it
all means.”
“We need to look
and decide what is rhetoric and what will end up as policy,” one
Whitehall official said. “There isn’t a huge amount of concern.
These people have said a lot of things, but you’ve got to judge
them when they are in office. What they have said doesn’t change
our policy.”
London’s starting
position is that regardless of what Tillerson has said in the past,
Trump will determine U.S. foreign policy. On this score, the
government of Theresa May has been reassured by the “softening”
they have seen in his public comments since the presidential
campaign.
The British foreign
secretary, Boris Johnson, has spoken to people in Trump’s circle,
including Vice President-elect Mike Pence, former New York City mayor
Rudolph Giuliani and New Jersey governor Chris Christie since Trump’s
surprising victory last month — and according to British officials
also come away reassured.
Pence, in
particular, is seen in the Foreign Office as key moderating
influence. The incoming vice president voiced his agreement when
Johnson spelled out the importance of the U.K.-U.S. relationship in
tackling ISIS in Syria and standing up to Russian aggression.
However, there is an
acceptance that despite its vote to exit the EU last June, the U.K.
may now have more in common with other European capitals on foreign
policy than Washington — particularly on sanctions against Russia.
Big Oil in the White
House
While it is remains
from clear how much — or even if — relations between the U.S. and
Russia will truly improve during Trump’s presidency, there seemed
to be a dawning realization in Europe that the administration taking
shape was perhaps the most pro-Big Business White House in history.
On that front, some
of Mr. Tillerson’s fellow titans in the oil business praised his
selection.
Tillerson is “widely
respected, is a person who knows how to listen and find compromises”
and his appointment is “positive,” Claudio De Scalzi, the chief
executive of the Italian, state-controlled oil company Eni, said in
New York according to Ansa, the Italian news agency.
In 2013, Putin
awarded the “Friendship of Russia” to Tillerson, and Paolo
Scaroni, the director general of Eni, at the same ceremony.
In Moscow,
predictably perhaps, there was effusive praise for the
president-elect’s selection.
“The head of
Exxon, Tillerson is Trump’s choice for the post of secretary of
state,” Alexey Pushkov, a Russian senator, posted on Twitter. “He
has worked a lot with Russia. This choice confirms Trump’s
seriousness.”
In a follow-up post,
Pushkov, who was chief of the Russian Parliament’s foreign affairs
committee before joining the Senate, wrote: “McCain, Rubio and Co.
are opponents of Trump. That’s why their efforts to derail the
appointment of Tillerson played in his favor. Yes, and Trump is no
coward.”
Pierre Briançon in
Paris, Tom McTague in London, Janosch Delcker in Berlin, and Cynthia
Kroet, Jacopo Barigazzi and Quentin Ariès in Brussels contributed
reporting to this article.
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