Europe
to Turkey: We won’t be bullied on refugees
Europe
needs Erdoğan’s help — but Turkey wants an EU visa waiver and
its financial aid.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 5/10/16, 5:29 AM CET
BERLIN — European
officials have argued the imperative of the EU’s refugee deal with
Turkey to a skeptical public for weeks, insisting there was simply no
viable alternative to the controversial pact.
“Those who
criticize the agreement have never presented an alternative we could
work with,” Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans recently
told the European Parliament.
As Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has hinted in recent days he may just let the
whole arrangement collapse, a step that could again send refugees
streaming across the Aegean, Europe has quietly begun preparing a
Plan B.
The EU’s
contingency plan, described by senior diplomats, envisions turning
Greece into what European leaders from Angela Merkel on down have
vowed to avoid: a giant refugee camp.
Indeed, the whole
rationale for the Turkey pact was to keep refugees from being
stranded in Greece, which has neither the wherewithal nor the
capacity to deal with an influx that could quickly reach the hundreds
of thousands.
But with most of the
rest of Europe refusing to accept more than a token number of
migrants, there may not be another option.
Under the blueprint,
first reported Monday by Germany’s Bild, Greek islands would serve
not just as reception centers for the refugees, but as semi-permanent
refugee camps, much like those that have been built near the Syrian
border in Jordan and Lebanon.
“Pardon me but we
are going our way and you can go yours” — Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
The EU has yet to
make any concrete preparations and appears to be pursuing the idea,
at least in part, to show Erdoğan that it has other options, however
unattractive they may be.
The discussion
follows Erdoğan’s refusal last week to revise Turkey’s
anti-terror law, which critics say his government uses to target
journalists and other critics of his increasingly authoritarian rule.
Europe has made
overhauling the law one of the key conditions for granting Turkish
citizens visa-free travel in the EU. Backing down from that
insistence in the face of growing opposition to the pact would be
difficult.
Under the deal
sealed in March, Turkey agreed to prevent migrants from crossing the
Aegean and to take back those who do in exchange for aid and the visa
waiver, a coveted perk for Turks with business and family ties in
Europe.
Turkey seemed well
on its way to gaining the privilege after the Commission offered its
recommendation last week. Then on Friday, just hours after ousting
Turkey’s pro-European prime minister, Erdoğan signaled he would
not heed Europe’s demand.
“The EU says ‘you
will change the anti-terror law for visa,’” Erdoğan said during
a speech in Istanbul. “Pardon me but we are going our way and you
can go yours.”
On Sunday, the
Turkish leader poured more oil on the fire, accusing European
countries of “cruelty” for closing their borders to refugees.
On Monday, he struck
a more conciliatory tone, saying Turkey still wanted the visa deal
and that he would cooperate with the EU.
The mixed signals
and the political upheaval in Ankara have European leaders worried
the deal will collapse. Even without Erdoğan’s taunts, winning
support for the agreement in Europe has proved difficult, especially
in the European Parliament, which must grant its approval for the
deal to go forward.
Politicians on the
left and right have banded together to oppose the pact, citing
concerns over Erdoğan’s attacks on freedom of expression and harsh
treatment of the Kurds.
The debate has left
the plan’s sponsors, including Merkel and European Council
President Donald Tusk, in a difficult position. To sell the agreement
in Europe, they’ve presented it as the EU’s only realistic option
to bring the crisis under control. But that argument also strengthens
Erdoğan’s hand, emboldening him to demand further concessions.
For all his bluster,
the Turkish leader needs Europe’s help in dealing with the nearly 3
million Syrian refugees now in Turkey.
By floating the idea
of establishing camps in Greece, European officials want to signal to
Erdoğan that they aren’t as dependent on his cooperation as he may
think and they won’t be coerced.
It’s doubtful
he’ll be convinced.
Even if the EU were
to grant Greece significant financial and logistical assistance to
deal with the crisis, a massive influx of refugees to the country
would likely further destablize its already fragile political system.
The EU, which already oversees much of Greece’s public
administration and is in the process of overhauling its asylum
system, would have to devote even more resources to the country.
Nonetheless, the EU
can rely on more than idle threats in dealing with Erdoğan. For all
his bluster, the Turkish leader needs Europe’s help in dealing with
the nearly 3 million Syrian refugees now in Turkey. Europe has
promised about €6 billion in financial aid and would likely pony up
more once that’s exhausted.
What’s more, the
promised visa liberalization is extremely popular in Turkey. For the
millions of Turks with relatives in Germany and other European
countries, going through the cumbersome process of applying for a
visa would be a thing of the past.
More important, the
visa waiver, which has been promised to Turks for years, would send a
powerful signal that they are welcome in the West.
If the deal falls
through, Erdoğan will likely blame Europe. He may find it difficult,
however, to convince his people the Europeans are the only ones at
fault.
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