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Presidenciais
austríacas serão decididas por voto postal
PÚBLICO 22/05/2016
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O
candidato ecologista surpreendeu ao encurtar a vantagem dada ao
nacionalista anti-imigração. Eleição será decidida na contagem
dos votos por correspondência.
A segunda volta das
eleições presidenciais na Áustria surpreendeu os que antecipavam
uma vitória fácil para o candidato nacionalista e anti-imigração
Norbert Hofer. A decisão acabou adiada para segunda-feira, dia em
que se fará a contagem de centenas de milhares de votos enviados por
correspondência, que determinarão o vencedor.
Hofer parte na
liderança com 51,9% dos votos, contra os 48,1% de Alexander Van der
Bellen, ex-líder do partido ecologista austríaco. Os resultados
preliminares foram anunciados pelo Ministério do Interior ao final
da tarde, quando as televisões davam conta de um empate técnico. O
voto enviado por correspondência corresponde a cerca de 900 mil
boletins, ou 14% do eleitorado.
Há apenas uma
semana, a imprensa austríaca dava uma vantagem de seis pontos
percentuais de Hofer sobre Van der Bellen. Hofer fez campanha pelo
regresso ao crescimento económico e aumento do emprego, mas como
pano de fundo teve sempre a promessa de travar a “invasão de
muçulmanos” no país, que se confrontou no último ano com mais de
90 mil pedidos de asilo.
A sua vitória
parecia certa, mas os resultados de domingo surpreenderam a força
nacionalista do Partido da Liberdade, que esperava celebrar já a
entrada no poder do homem que muitos dizem poder vir a ser o primeiro
chefe de Estado europeu da extrema-direita — uma classificação
que Hofer e o seu partido recusam.
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Greens
could deprive Austrian right of presidency
Freedom
Party’s Norbert Hofer, who wants a tougher line on refugees, still
hopes to build on his 1st-round win.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 5/22/16, 5:41 PM CET Updated 5/23/16, 2:11 AM CET
VIENNA — Austria’s
presidential run-off Sunday resulted in an effective draw, with both
the right-wing and Green candidate projected to win 50 percent of the
vote, leaving the final outcome dependent on the postal ballot tally
due late Monday.
Most analysts
believe the postal vote, with a record 885,000 ballots issued, will
favor the Greens’ Alexander Van der Bellen, the favorite of the
higher-educated, pro-Europe elements of the electorate.
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Norbert Hofer, the
candidate of the right-wing Freedom Party (FPÖ), led the official
preliminary count, which doesn’t include the the postal ballots,
with a total of 52 percent, compared to 48 percent for Van der
Bellen.
The projections,
calculated for state broadcaster ORF by the Sora polling institute,
include estimates for all votes, however, reflecting a statistical
dead heat between the two, with the Green candidate ahead by a mere
3,000 votes. Both camps celebrated the day as a victory, with Van der
Bellen’s supporters chanting his nickname, Sascha, at a raucous
party at a palace in downtown Vienna.
A Van der Bellen
win, even by a slim margin, would count as a significant upset after
Hofer led the first round by a margin of 14 percentage points in a
crowded field. With the rest of the vote divided between four other
candidates, Van der Bellen’s chances of winning a majority appeared
slim.
“Few believed we
could catch up,” Van der Bellen, a 72-year-old economics professor
and former Green leader said Sunday evening, adding that he was
inspired by the broad support he enjoyed in the electorate.
Whoever wins, the
vote underscores the degree to which the the country — one of
Europe’s wealthiest — is divided across a range of issues from
refugee policy to Austria’s relationship with the European Union.
Though the post of president is a largely ceremonial role, the
election was widely seen as a referendum on the country’s
direction.
In that regard, the
poll highlights Austrians’ deep frustration with nearly a decade of
grand coalition rule, which many observers blame for the country’s
polarization. Never before have candidates outside the country’s
two dominant blocs — the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the People’s
Party (ÖVP) — won so many votes. As such, the result gives the
Greens and the Freedom Party a degree of legitimacy they have never
before enjoyed.
That’s
particularly significant for the Freedom Party, long castigated at
home and abroad as a dangerous far-right movement. Party officials
were quick to argue that win or lose, with 50 percent of the vote,
the Freedom Party is now part of the political mainstream.
“It is a day of
great gratitude and happiness,” Freedom Party leader
Heinz-Christian Strache said.
As other European
countries, from Germany to France to Scandinavia face similar
political pressures around refugees and the role of Islam, the bigger
question is whether Austria is a bellwether for similar upheaval
across the Continent. That’s especially a cause for concern in
Germany, a country with strong cultural and historic ties to Austria,
where the upstart Alternative für Deutschland party has been
steadily gaining ground with a platform similar to the Freedom
Party’s.
With Sunday’s
result hanging in the balance, the candidates avoided the bravado of
the campaign trail and struck a friendlier tone. Van der Bellen vowed
to”repair the divisions,” if elected.
Norbert Hofer
prevailed in the first round of the presidential poll
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MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG
“The person who
wins will have the task of reuniting Austria,” said Hofer, 45, a
trained engineer turned Freedom Party standard bearer.
The conciliatory
tone stood in stark contrast to the vitriol of the campaign, the most
contentious in Austria since Kurt Waldheim, a former UN General
Secretary accused of hiding his past in the Wehrmacht, ran in 1986.
Memories of the international censure Austria faced after Waldheim
was elected, as well as the isolation the country encountered after
the Freedom Party joined the government in a junior role in 2000,
appear to have driven many voters into Van der Bellen’s camp.
During the campaign,
Hofer caricatured Van der Bellen’s backers, a group that included
many prominent Austrian personalities, from Hollywood actor Christoph
Waltz to local business leaders, as “haute volée.” In a country
where longstanding class divisions, delineated by education and
dialect, persist, Hofer’s overtures to what he called the regular
folk resonated far beyond the party’s traditional right-wing base.
Border controls
Hofer, virtually
unknown until a few months ago, won the first round last month by a
wide margin, on the back of growing frustration with the ruling
center-left Social Democrats and center-right People’s Party.
Economically speaking, Austria is much better off than most European
countries. The unemployment rate, despite recent increases, remains
one of the lowest in the EU. Nevertheless, many Austrians see the
country’s prosperity threatened by the refugees, the eurozone
bailouts and globalization. A clear majority of Austrians say they
are disenchanted with the status quo in the country. Many also blame
the EU, a favorite target of the FPÖ.
Senior European
politicians, including Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, had
encouraged Austrians to vote against Hofer, whose party has long
taken a skeptical view of Europe.
The Freedom Party,
which has led national polls in Austria for months, has also seized
on the refugee crisis, demanding that the government effectively seal
its border to refugees and send many of those already here back.
Austria took in
about 90,000 refugees last year, among the highest number per capita
in Europe. But, under growing public pressure, the government changed
course late last year, imposing border controls and pushing for the
closure of the so-called Balkan route along which migrants traveled
from Greece to northern Europe.
The reversal only
emboldened the FPÖ, however, which took credit for the government’s
shift. Hofer’s first-round win prompted the resignation of Social
Democrat Chancellor Werner Faymann earlier this month.
His replacement,
Christian Kern, previously head of the national railway, has promised
a radical break with the past.
“If we don’t
comprehend that this is our last chance, the two big parties are
going to disappear,” he said upon taking office last week. “If we
continue like this, we only have a few more months until we
completely lose the trust of the people.”
Authors:
Matthew Karnitschnig
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