Where
the British press stands on Brexit
Commercial
interests, political expediency, and public opinion will play a role.
There could be surprises.
By ALEX SPENCE
5/19/16, 5:30 AM CET Updated 5/20/16, 5:43 AM CET
LONDON — Five
weeks to go before Britain votes on its membership in the European
Union, there’s an almost daily avalanche of articles quoting
politicians, foreign leaders, businesspeople, diplomats, retired
generals, former spies, economists, actors, writers, academics,
scientists, sports stars, religious figures and various other
important types on whether Britain should vote to leave or remain.
Yet only a handful
of newspapers have declared their own positions.
Newspaper
endorsements may no longer carry the same weight they once did —
it’s arguable whether they ever swayed many voters, even at the
height of their powers — but that hasn’t stopped London’s media
gazers, not to mention the newspapers’ own journalists, poring over
recent editorials for signs of where they’ll come down in the days
leading up to June 23.
You’d think it
would be obvious, based on the newspapers’ readerships and the
tenor of their day-to-day reporting on the campaign. But it’s not
quite that simple. The views of readers, editors and proprietors
aren’t always in alignment; commercial interests, political
expediency, and whichever way editors sense the wind is blowing in
the campaign’s final days will also play a part. There could be
surprises.
Based on
conversations with editors, journalists and executives at several
newspapers and a sampling of recent editorials, here’s a
(subjective) rundown of where the papers stand, and where they might
end up:
THE SUN
This is the one
everyone will be watching. Politicians have long coveted the
endorsement of Rupert Murdoch’s tabloid because it reaches so many
people who don’t normally pay much attention to politics. Its
influence has slipped in recent years but it’s still the
biggest-selling newspaper in the country, with a circulation of 1.7
million. A strong declaration for a vote to leave could give the
Brexiteers a boost in the final stretch of the campaign.
Its editorials are
sharply, consistently critical of the EU (“in meltdown”) and the
Remain campaign (“smug”). The newspaper’s columnist and former
political editor Trevor Kavanagh told the BBC’s Newsnight program
in March that the final position will be determined by Murdoch
himself.
Murdoch has long
been opposed to Britain’s EU membership, but that doesn’t mean
the decision is predictable. Politics aside, there are business
considerations. News Corp’s U.K. operations are already hurting
from an advertising slowdown made worse by nervousness about the
referendum; disruption for businesses could be much worse after a
Brexit vote. Moreover, Murdoch’s other media companies, 21st
Century Fox and Sky, have significant interests in Europe which could
be damaged.
Last May, the Mail
on Sunday claimed Murdoch would remain neutral because leaving would
be too much of an economic risk. Lately he’s seemed to be leaning
more toward out, according to one person close to News Corp. It’d
be easier to gauge his current thinking if he hadn’t stopped
tweeting 75 days ago, when he married Jerry Hall.
The last time
Britain held a referendum, on Scottish independence in September
2014, the Sun didn’t make up its mind until the last minute — and
went against what some inside News Corp were expecting. In the U.K.
for the vote (as he is expected to be this time) Murdoch seemed to
veer between romantically supporting a Scottish breakaway and
skepticism about whether it could stand alone economically. In the
end, the Sun’s English edition recommended Scotland staying and the
Scottish edition remained neutral. David Dinsmore, the Sun’s editor
at the time, was strongly in favor of Scotland staying in the union
and “really dug in,” according to a senior source at the company.
Best bet: It’s
hard to call which way will the Sun go this time. Maybe neutral.
DAILY MAIL
If any of the
leading newspapers makes a strong declaration for Brexit, it’ll be
the Mail, Britain’s second biggest-selling paper (circulation 1.6
million).
Its Euroskeptic
instincts are plain, both in its news pages and editorials. Day after
day, it voices concerns about the costs of EU membership, the U.K.’s
loss of sovereignty and laws being dictated by unaccountable
foreigners. It blames the EU for unfettered migration that is causing
“demographic upheaval,” routinely attacks the Remain camp for
“wild scaremongering,” and bristles at any sign that foreign
leaders such as Barack Obama, Angela Merkel or Christine Lagarde are
telling British voters what to think.
“This newspaper
does not for one moment concede that Brexit would impoverish the
U.K.,” the Mail said in a recent editorial. “On the contrary,
there is good reason to think that regaining the right to run our own
affairs would, on balance, be highly beneficial.”
Even so, there’s
still a tiny bit of doubt among senior figures at the newspaper about
its final stance. The owner, Jonathan Harmsworth, the Fourth Viscount
Rothermere, is thought to want Britain to remain. Unlike Murdoch,
Rothermere doesn’t get involved with editorial decisions and
insiders said it’s unlikely he would try to sway the editor, Paul
Dacre (even less likely that Dacre, the most feared and formidable
editor on Fleet Street, would be influenced).
If Dacre has any
hesitation, one person said, it may be that he doesn’t want the
Mail to appear inconsequential by forcefully backing Leave if it
seems Remain will win by a decisive margin. On the other hand, the
Mail would look weak if it does anything else. “Dacre has dug in so
far it makes it hard not to back Brexit,” said one industry source.
Best bet: Leave.
(Its sister paper, the Mail on Sunday, seems likely to take the
opposite stance, as it often does.)
DAILY TELEGRAPH
This has been the
most puzzling one to follow. In some ways the Telegraph has had a
strong referendum campaign: Boris Johnson, the Leave campaign’s
figurehead, is one of the newspaper’s star columnists, on around
£250,000-a-year. The former mayor of London’s ruminations were
always widely read and cited by rival media outlets, but are even
more so now that his column is a platform for his case against the
EU.
Lynton Crosby, the
Conservatives’ election guru, has also recently joined as a
columnist and his analysis of the polls is a must-read in the
Westminster village. Its biggest coup was landing Obama’s op-ed
urging a Remain vote on the eve of his visit to London last month.
The Telegraph’s
editorials, however, have baffled rivals, politicians and its own
journalists. Traditionally the newspaper of the Tory heartland,
almost 60 percent of its readers are in favor of leaving the EU,
according to the pollsters YouGov. Yet the newspaper seems conflicted
about which side to back. There’s a clear dissatisfaction with
Brussels, but not a strong sense of any conviction that Britain would
be better off on its own.
A warning to the
Remain camp this week that “This argument, far from being over, is
still very much alive,” was about as punchy as its recent
editorials got.
Best bet: Neutral or
half-hearted Remain.
THE TIMES
While the
Telegraph’s readership leans towards Out, 62 percent of Times
readers want Britain to stay in the EU, according to YouGov.
That’s to be
expected for a paper that prides itself on being the paper of the
political and financial elite. In that light, supporters of the
Remain campaign have been surprised at how Euroskeptic the
Murdoch-owned newspaper has seemed at times. The editor, John
Witherow, shares some of his proprietor’s reservations about the EU
and clearly finds some of the Brexit camp’s arguments
intellectually appealing.
Then again, Witherow
is a pragmatist. Recent editorials suggest he’s not persuaded by
the Leave campaign’s arguments on the big questions of national and
economic security. In one indicative recent editorial, the Times said
that voters contemplating Brexit “should demand a more thoughtful
and thorough national security case.”
Best bet: Remain.
DAILY MIRROR
The left-wing
tabloid may be torn between its affiliation to the Labour Party,
which is campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU, and skepticism
among some of its working-class readers who see Brussels as beholden
to unaccountable elites. In recent editorials, it’s stressed the
importance of voting rather than indicating an allegiance. Yet it’s
clearly far less hostile to Brussels than its right-wing competitors.
“Only a fool
dismisses the role of the EU in sustaining peace,” it said
recently. The Mirror also welcomed Obama’s intervention, saying:
“The choice is ours, but it is well worth listening to others.”
Best bet: Remain.
THE GUARDIAN
The liberal
broadsheet’s readers are by far the most supportive of Britain’s
membership in the EU — nine out of 10 want the U.K. to stay,
according to the pollsters. Its editorials have been unambiguous:
“The Guardian will make no apology, between now and June 23, for
making the case for Britain in Europe as clearly, as honestly and as
insistently as possible,” it said on May 9.
Best bet: Already
declared for Remain.
EVENING STANDARD
London’s free
evening newspaper has been preoccupied recently by the mayoral
contest between Sadiq Khan and Zac Goldsmith. When it did address the
EU referendum in a recent editorial, it gave no sign of allegiance to
either side, telling readers: “Let’s listen, learn and then
vote.”
However, with
Londoners overwhelmingly in favor of remaining it would be a surprise
if the Standard didn’t eventually endorse a vote to stay in the
bloc. Editor Sarah Sands raised eyebrows earlier this month when she
backed Goldsmith for mayor and may not want to risk appearing out of
touch with her readers on another important decision.
Best bet: Remain.
DAILY EXPRESS
The tabloid owned by
the billionaire Richard Desmond has championed Brexit regularly in
its editorials. May 11: “We must take advantage of this opportunity
and vote to leave the EU.” May 4: “If we stay in the EU we slide
ever deeper into that political quicksand from which there will be no
escape.” April 20: “Vote for Brexit.”
However, with
circulation down to 415,000, a tenth of its peak last century, the
Express’s influence these days is limited.
Best bet:
Unapologetically out.
Authors:
Alex Spence
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