5
takeaways from Austria’s presidential election
As
the Greens squeeze out the far-right, the mainstream looks
increasingly like a spent force.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 5/23/16, 8:20 PM CET
VIENNA — Austrian
Green Alexander Van der Bellen scored a come-from-behind victory in
the country’s run-off presidential election Sunday that few
believed possible.
The end result, not
announced until Monday afternoon after postal ballots were counted,
put Van der Bellen just 31,000 votes ahead of his challenger Norbert
Hofer of the far-right Freedom Party. Van der Bellen won 50.3 percent
of the vote to Hofer’s 49.7 percent.
With Austria at the
center of the refugee crisis, the campaign attracted intense interest
across Europe. The country has taken in more refugees per capita than
most other EU members and the politics of immigration as well as the
role of Islam featured prominently in the campaign.
Hofer, who dominated
the first round, winning 35 percent in a crowded field, had appeared
poised to win the run-off as well, a result that would have made him
Europe’s first right-wing head of state.
Fearing that
outcome, a broad coalition coalesced behind Van der Bellen, producing
a photo finish in one of the most dramatic electoral contests in
recent European history.
Here are five
takeaways from the election.
1. Europe’s
postwar political establishment is crumbling
Above all, the
Austrian result illustrates that the center-right and center-left
parties that have dominated the Continent’s politics since World
War II are in retreat.
The Social
Democratic and People’s Party blocs that have ensured stability for
decades across much of the region are quickly losing their appeal.
The first round of the election, in which the establishment parties
finished at the bottom of the field, amounted to a repudiation of
their stewardship.
Austria, like
Germany, is governed by a grand coalition, a constellation that if
left in place for too long stokes support for the political fringe.
2. Polarization is
the new normal
The cozy days of
polite political debate in Western Europe are over. The exchanges
between Van der Bellen and Hofer were some of the most caustic in
recent memory.
Alexander Van der
Bellen reacts during an election party after the second round of the
Austrian President elections
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With candidates
outside of the mainstream increasingly joining the political fray —
the first presidential round in Austria included six hopefuls — the
tone of the debate is getting sharper. Though Eastern Europeans are
known to go for the jugular (sometimes literally), politics in
Western Europe have for the most part been staid. With the emergence
of the Alternative für Deutschland in Germany and the resurgence of
the right wing in France, the Netherlands and Scandinavia, that’s
changing.
Austria highlights a
more troubling aspect of that trend: a widening class divide. While
well-educated city dwellers supported Van der Bellen, low-earning
rural and working class Austrians backed Hofer. The country hasn’t
seen such stark divisions in its electorate since the 1930s, when
clashes between rightist and leftist forces almost triggered a civil
war.
The results of the
close run-off come in | Jan Hetfleisch/Getty Images
The results of the
close run-off come in | Jan Hetfleisch/Getty Images
3. The wealthy
aren’t immune to the pull of populists
By any objective
measure, Austria counts as one of Europe’s, indeed the world’s,
richest nations. Unemployment is low, compared to most EU countries,
and growth is stable, if not spectacular. That the Freedom Party
nonetheless succeeded in upending the country’s politics shows that
voters care as much about the future as they do the present. The core
of the party’s supporters may not be rich, but they aren’t poor
either.
The Freedom Party’s
message is that Austria is headed in the wrong direction. Even if
Austrians feel comfortable now, Islam, the EU and the forces of
globalization threaten to destroy their future, the party warns. With
countries across Europe confronting similar societal headwinds, look
for the Freedom Party’s playbook to be adopted by parties in other
parts of Western Europe.
4. Europe’s
liberals may be down, but they’re not out
Van der Bellen’s
come-from-behind victory shows that when the chips are down, the
Continent’s pro-EU, liberal forces can rally together and carry the
day. In the run-off, Van der Bellen won 1.3 million more votes than
in the first round, indicating that fear of a Freedom Party victory
drove large numbers of conservative voters into his camp. In
addition, turnout was high, at 73 percent, with many voters who
didn’t turn up for the first round casting a ballot in the second.
5. Sincerity sells
Love them or hate
them, a quality both candidates in the race shared was authenticity.
Unlike the mainstream parties, which have waffled and reversed course
on myriad issues, Van der Bellen and Hofer left little question about
where they stood on the key topics of the day.
Van der Bellen was
unapologetic about his stance on welcoming refugees, his support for
the EU and conviction that the Schengen treaty is a cornerstone of
Europe’s stability. Hofer, meanwhile, spoke just as clearly about
what he regards as the urgency to secure Austria’s borders and keep
the EU from encroaching too much on Austria’s sovereignty.
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